Analysts at Nomura Securities claim that the single currency has been trading so far as if there was no sovereign debt crisis. The market has ignored the issues in Portugal, Ireland and Greece and the risk premium on euro has been declining since January after risk premiums were driving all the EUR/USD moves in 2010.

The specialists note that in case of positive outlook for euro that wouldn’t be a problem, but since the crisis is still unresolved everything may go wrong. In their view, investors have priced in about 85 to 90 basis points of interest rate hikes this year, so if the ECB doesn’t meet the expectations that will certainly harm the single currency.

The strategists believe that the risks of debt restructuring are rather high. According to Nomura, the restructuring solely in Greece, Ireland and Portugal will cost the core euro zone around $235 billion, while a restructuring that also involves Spain would require from the ECB about $480 billion. These numbers aren't insurmountable, but getting to them would be very difficult from the political point of view.

The analysts recommended selling euro versus Norwegian krone and maybe British pound.