The advance of the pair EUR/USD was limited as the European finance ministers admitted yesterday that there’s a possibility that Greece may have to restructure its debt.

Economists at SEB believe that if Greece is allowed to restructure one way or another, the single currency will get under severe pressure as the haircut may undermine investors’ confidence in the euro area. The specialists say that the market players will soon start doubting about how sensible is it to keep holding euro longs.

If the restructuring path is, nevertheless, chosen, there are different views on how intense this process should be.

Strategists at ING claim that in order to keep Greece’s debt/GDP ratio sustainable the nation will need to restructure at least 30% of its debt. Greek 10-year bonds yield reached 15.495%.

Analysts at Credit Suisse say that the situation in Spain and Italy will remain stable if Greek restructuring involves only maturity extension. At the same time, forced restructuring with principal sums reduction is likely to increase systemic risk threatening other peripheral European nations.



Chart. H4 EUR/USD