Japanese yen has once again strengthened to the key levels versus US dollar: the pair USD/JPY is trading in the 80 yen area. As a result, investors are speculating about the possibility of currency intervention. The IMF's acting head, John Lipsky, claimed that the G-7 countries are prepared to intervene again if it's necessary.

However, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman claim that the key conditions for the intervention that existed before the most recent intervention are not present right now. According to the specialists, the volatility is much lower now than it was in March. In addition, the difference in yield between 2-year Treasuries and 2-year Japanese government bonds is about 22 basis points, while 2 months ago it was 3 times bigger. Moreover, the USD/JPY decline may be the result of dollar’s weakness and not yen’s strength.

So, taking into account all these factors BBH regards intervention as very unlikely.



Chart. Daily USD/JPY