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  1. #561
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    What do the fundamentals say for NZD/USD?


    NZD/USD has survived a prolonged period of declines since the second half of July. In September, a bullish correction has finally started. Will this recovery last? We try to answer this question by studying the fundamentals for the NZD and the USD.

  2. #562
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/NZD: the opportunity is still here


    Trade idea

    SELL 1.7055; TP 1.6990; SL 1.7070

    When looking for pairs to trade to benefit from today’s meeting of the European Central Bank, pay attention to EUR/NZD. We already drew your attention to this pair last week, and the idea still looks good. Moreover, the pair has actually confirmed a “double top” on the D1 as it tried to retest the neckline and got rejected to the downside. Now it’s possible to join sellers on the break below 1.7060 (50% Fibo of the July-August advance, 100-day MA) targeting 1.6985 (100-week MA).

  3. #563
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    USD/ZAR: there’s more to come


    It looks like USD/ZAR is capable of more downside on the ongoing trade optimism and as the market’s view switches to the Federal Reserve’s meeting later this month. The pair has broken below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August advance and the 50-day MA in the 14.6530 area - now this is the main resistance. The key support lies at 14.55 (yesterday’s low, 100-day MA). The decline below this level will open the way down to the 61.8% Fibo at 14.4570. Notice that there’s some bullish divergence on H4, so a move higher seems likely before we see any attempt for lower levels.

  4. #564
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    USD/TRY is volatile


    Trade ideas

    BUY 5.7260; TP 5.7450; SL 5.7200

    SELL 5.6990; TP 5.6570; SL 5.7050

    USD/TRY formed a bullish gap on the D1. It happened on the increase in the market’s risk aversion. Notice that, all in all, the pair’s consolidating within a triangle and has space to move inside it. The advance above today’s high at 5.7250 will open the way to 5.7450 (100-period MA on H4 and the top of the triangle). The decline below 5.70 will make the pair move towards the lower border of the pattern. The target for selling will be at 5.6570 (200-period MA).

  5. #565
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    USD/CAD is in a triangle


    Oil prices will likely remain elevated as there are no signs that the Middle East tensions will ease anytime soon. In this environment, the currencies of oil exporters, such as the CAD, may feel good.USD/CAD is consolidating within a triangle on H4 as it failed to get above the 100-day MA yesterday. The upper border of the pattern is at 1.3258 (200-period MA on H4). Above it, the pair may be able to test the recent high of 1.3286 (61.8% Fibo of the September decline), although there will be the 100-day MA at 1.3270 on the way. The lower border at 1.3240 guards the way to 1.3228 and 1.32. We favor the bearish scenario. The Awesome Oscillator on H4 formed a lower high.

  6. #566
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/AUD has some fuel


    Trade idea

    BUY 1.6175; TP1 1.62; TP2 1.6235; SL 1.6160

    SELL 1.6085; TP 1.6050; SL 1.6100

    EUR/AUD formed a "hammer" candlestick on the W1, above the 50-week MA in the 1.6010 area. There's also a 100-day MA just above 1.6050. The pair tried to retest levels below it earlier this week but then closed higher. All of this lets us think about a bullish scenario. The advance above Friday's high at 1.6170 area will open the way up to 1.62 (100-day MA) and potentially to 1.6235 (200-day MA). Support lies at 1.6090 (200-period MA on H4). The decline below it will mark a return to 1.6050.

  7. #567
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    AUD/USD turned down



    Trade idea

    SELL 0.6785; TP1 0.6765; TP2 0.6735; SL 0.6795

    AUD/USD made another attempt to close below the 50-day MA at 0.6845 and this time it was successful. The pair has formed a top and can have another go at the lower levels as it resumes the general downtrend.

    So far, AUD/USD has reached the 50% Fibo retracement of the September advance at 0.6790 (100-period MA on H4). The decline below this level will open the way down to 0.6765 (61.8% Fibo) and 0.6730 (78.6% Fibo).

  8. #568
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD: key technical levels


    Trade ideas

    BUY 1.2505; TP 1.2700; SL 1.2485

    SELL 1.2485; TP1 1.2440; TP2 1.2390; SL 1.2500

    GBP/USD is having a third bullish week in a row. The pair has reached our previous buy target at 1.25 and may be up for more given its clear attempt to form a base around 1.20 and the previous break above 1.23. In the short-term, the pair may test lower levels as there's bearish divergence on the H4. The key level for the upside is 1.25 (100-day MA, previous week's highs): the decline there may attract new buyers that will aim at 1.2700/30. If, however, GBP/USD slides below 1.2490, it will be the time for selling with targets at 1.2440 and 1.2390.

  9. #569
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    [/CENTER]

    Trade idea

    SELL 107.40; TP1 107.10; TP2 106.70; SL 107.55

    USD/JPY formed a candlestick on the W1 that strongly resembles a “shooting star”. This happened right at the resistance of the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-August decline at 108.40. The weak risk appetite may contribute to the strength of the JPY and the weakness of USD/JPY. On the D1, the pair slipped below the 100-day MA (107.90) on Friday. The next bearish target below the last week’s low of 107.45 lies at 107.10 (50-day MA) and then at 106.70.

  10. #570
    pedagoreng is offline Senior Member
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    Trade idea

    SELL 1.0750; TP1 1.0725; TP2 1.0700; SL 1.0765

    The Australian dollar will likely be quite volatile on Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe is scheduled to speak at 12:55 MT time. The RBA will likely be under pressure to cut rates further, so we await some negative impact on the AUD.

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