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Thread: Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

  1. #21
    kaito kid is offline Banned
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    Commerzbank: USD/CHF broke above resistance
    Wednesday, May 30, 2012 - 11:18

    Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the greenback has at last managed to overcome resistance in the 0.9572/95 area (January maximums) trading versus Swiss franc, so the pair USD/CHF reached new 2012 highs and March 2008 minimum at 0.9636.

    The specialists think that US currency may climb to 0.9950. In their view, support for the pair will be found at 0.9529/00 (May 28 minimum, May 18 maximum), 0.9368/35 (May 22 minimum, March maximums) and 0.9478 (Ichimoku Cloud support at H4 chart).


    Chart. Daily USD/CHF

    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/17821-c...ove-resistance

  2. #22
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    Bank of America: comments on USD/CAD
    Wednesday, May 30, 2012 - 14:51

    Analysts of Bank of America expect the Canadian dollar to fall to its lowest level since October as commodity prices keep declining. Strategists recommend going long on USD/CAD at current levels, targeting at C$1.0528 and with a stop at C$0. 9950.

    Specialists note that raw materials account for half of Canada’s export revenue. The CRY (CRB) commodity index fell below 281 (the lowest level since September 2010). Moreover, specialists at Bank of America forecast a further decline to 257 in a near-term.

    Net long positions on the Canadian dollar declined twofold (70K on May 4 vs. 38K on May 22). According to analysts, net longs were opened in February - March when the pair was trading at C$1.0053-0.9700. As a result, a further downward movement of the cross is expected.


    Chart. Daily USD/CAD

    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...omments-usdcad

  3. #23
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    Italian auction results disappoint
    Wednesday, May 30, 2012 - 21:06

    Italy’s 10-year bond yields overcame the critical 6% level for the first time since January, confirming that the euro zone’s crisis is gathering pace.

    The country managed to sell 5.73 billion euros of 5- and 10-year bonds out of its maximum 6.25 billion euros target. As a result, the yield spread between Italy and Germany’s 10-year bonds increased to 465 basis points.

    According to most analysts, Italian perceived creditworthiness is impaired mostly by external factors.


    Photo: Independent Report

    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...lts-disappoint

  4. #24
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    AUD/USD falls on debt woes
    Wednesday, May 30, 2012 - 22:25

    On Wednesday the Australian dollar declined 2.2% against the greenback as risk aversion is becoming stronger on Spain’s concerns. The Aussie strengthened last week after trading in a narrow downward channel until May 24.

    AUD/USD plummeted after the data showed Australia’s retail sales contracted by 0.2% in April compared with 1.1% growth in March and a 0.2% growth forecast. The next RBA policy meeting is scheduled on June 5: some economists expect another 25 b.p. rate cut. However, analysts at HSBC think local conditions are not enough to motivate the RBA to cut next week.

    Strategists at Danske Bank recommend selling AUD/USD at current levels, targeting at 0.9663 and with a stop at 0.9940.

    Support:
    0.9690 (May 23 minimum)
    0.9664 (Nov.23 minimum)
    0.9640 (Lower Bollinger)

    Resistance:
    0.9770 (May 28 minimum)
    0.9800 (May minimum)
    0.9935 (May 22 maximum)
    0.9963 (21-day MA)
    0.9990 (38.2% retracement of May decline)


    Chart. Daily AUD/USD

    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...alls-debt-woes

  5. #25
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    May 31: economic background
    Thursday, May 31, 2012 - 06:43



    Trading volumes and monetary flows are high as asset managers and corporations adjust their positions in the last trading day of the month.

    In Australia building approvals gave a negative surprise coming at -8.7% (m/m) in April vs. 0.3% expected gain. The readings of private capital expenditure and private sector credit, however, were good enough.

    Elsewhere the data was generally quite positive: Swiss economy added 0.7% in Q1 (q/q), while economists saw it unchanged, German retail sales were above the forecast last month (+0.6% vs. +0.1%), though the index gained less than in March (+1.6%).

    Spain and its banking sector remain the main source of the market’s pain. The nation’s 10-year bond yield rose reached 6.70% yesterday.

    EUR/USD edged slightly higher, but remains close to the 2-year minimum at $1.2358. AUD/USD once again tested the levels below 0.9700, but then managed to recover a bit. JPY strengthened versus all of its major peers as investors want it as a safe haven. EUR/JPY is falling for the eighth day in a row showing the longest decline in almost 2 years. USD/JPY slid to more than 3-month minimum at 78.70.

    Data to watch today:


    Euro zone: euro area flash annual inflation is expected to decline slightly from 2.6% in April to 2.5% in May. If inflation changes direction and increase, it may lower the chances of the ECB interest rate to remain low. Ireland holds a referendum on EU fiscal compact. The vote is crucial as it determines a crossroad for Ireland: the ‘Yes’ vote to the treaty (the baseline scenario) could bring economic progress and financial stability together with unavoidable austerity measures. The ‘No’ vote will enhance downward pressure on the common currency.

    US: A bunch of important US data will be released. ADP estimate of US non-farm payrolls in May is expected to reach 139K after 119K in April. Preliminary GDP release is expected to show a 1.9% growth in Q1 compared with a 2.2% growth in Q4, indicating that the US economy is not strong enough to drive global growth on its own. Chicago PMI in May is forecasted to increase to 56.8 vs. 56.2 in April. A small decline in unemployment claims during the last week is expected (369K vs. 370K).

    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...mic-background

  6. #26
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    Key options expiring today
    Thursday, May 31, 2012 - 07:12

    Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

    Here are the key options expiring today:

    EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2560, $1.2570, $1.2625 and $1.2650 (large);
    USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.80 and 80.00;
    AUD/USD: $0.9820, $0.9850, and $0.9900;
    NZD/USD: $0.7600;
    USD/CHF: 0.9600;
    EUR/GBP: 0.8100 and 0.8125.



    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...expiring-today

  7. #27
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    AUD is weighted by weak equities
    Thursday, May 31, 2012 - 07:52

    According to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, Australia’s dollar has lost 2.6% this year being the worst performer among 10 main developed-nation currencies after Sweden’s krona. Today AUD/USD once again tested the levels below $0.9700, but then managed to recover a bit, to $0.9730.

    Building approvals gave a negative surprise coming at -8.7% (m/m) in April vs. 0.3% expected gain boosting the speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its benchmark rate on June 5. The readings of private capital expenditure and private sector credit, however, were good enough.

    Analysts at Westpac claim that AUD/USD has potential for rebound in the near term: 14-day RSI was at 28.9, below 30 – the decline off Australian currency may have been too rapid and it has a chance for retracement. However, the specialists underline that Aussie’s prospects will be seriously affected by the declines in regional equities: Australian shares pared early losses but the main indexes post losses of more than 7% – one of the worst months since the global financial crisis erupted.

    Strategists at Rochford Capital worry about Spanish problems and their negative impact on the market’s risk sentiment. In their view, AUD/USD will inevitably slide to a very important support area in the $0.9500/9450 area.


    Chart. Daily AUD/USD

    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...-weak-equities

  8. #28
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    SocGen: you should be short on EUR/JPY
    Thursday, May 31, 2012 - 09:35

    Analysts at Societe Generale are bearish on the single currency versus Japanese yen. In their view, EUR/JPY will surely hit at least 97.03 (January 2012 minimum). So, the specialists recommend either maintaining shorts if you are already selling euro or open new ones with stops around 101.00. According to SocGen, EUR/JPY is a good trading choice as euro’s weak due to the region’s problems, while yen is demanded as a safe haven.

    The bank underlines that EUR/JPY could reverse upwards only in case of some major development in the current euro zone’s state, which seems unlikely for now. Societe Generale points out that the next important dates are 17 June (Greek elections) and 28-29 June (European summit). In addition, all news from Spain will be of great importance as well.

    Moreover, SocGen remind of EUR/JPY’s correlation with core euro zone bond yields and the dynamics of EUR/USD. From this view, the pair’s prospects are negative: as 10-year German bund yield is at a historical low under 1.35%, while EUR/USD remains close to 2-year minimum and is expected to go even lower.


    Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...e-short-eurjpy

  9. #29
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    EUR as usual looks vulnerable
    Thursday, May 31, 2012 - 10:30

    The single currency rose today versus the greenback after 7 consecutive days of losses.

    The market’s confidence in euro improved a bit as polls showed Ireland will vote for European Fiscal Pact at today’s referendum. In addition, German retail sales increased for the second month, while Spanish 10-year bond yields subsided from 6-month maximum and the ECB President Mario Draghi underlined that the central bank cannot resolve the problems caused by the lack of fiscal prudence and governance in the euro area.

    Although the markets took some breath, euro still looks extremely vulnerable. Morgan Stanley thinks that there may be “a very brief pause in the downtrend in the euro because of the Irish referendum, but beyond that the news is fairly negative”. “Things are starting to look ugly. It seems like the market is making Spain its next target after Greece,” said analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

    Analysts at BMO Financial Group recommend selling euro on potential rallies. The specialists advise to go short in the $1.2625 area (January minimum) stopping at $1.2725 and targeting $1.2325. In their view, “this is momentum and strong trend trading”.


    Chart. Daily EUR/USD

    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...oks-vulnerable

  10. #30
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    USD/CAD: a pause in advance
    Thursday, May 31, 2012 - 11:43

    Yesterday the greenback added almost 100 pips trading versus its Canadian counterpart. However, the bulls didn’t manage to push USD/CAD above resistance in the 1.0300 zone and the pair posted the day’s minimum at 1.0261.

    Note that both technical and fundamental picture for the pair still looks positive, so US dollar may resume its advance after some consolidation.

    The pair has gained 4.2% this month. Canada’s 10-year bond yield dropped to the lowest level since at least 1989 at 1.770%.

    US currency strengthened due to several factors: global risk aversion, declining commodity prices and the speculation that the odds of the Bank of Canada interest-rate increase decreased.

    Analysts at TD Securities think that USD/CAD may strengthen to 1.04/06 before USD-bears finally reemerge. Strategists at National Bank of Canada recommend buying the pair above 1.0320.

    As always with the pair USD/CAS, much depends on US and Canada’s data. Watch US unemployment claims and US GDP data today and Canada’s GBP and US NFP release tomorrow.

    Analysts expect the U.S. non-farm payrolls to increase by 152K. However, in April the labor market didn’t fulfill expectations rising only by 115K, far below the 172K consensus forecast. The March unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 8.1%. The unemployment declined to 8.1% in April from 8.2% in March, despite lower NFP job gains.


    Chart. Daily USD/CAD

    http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...-pause-advance

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