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Thread: Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

  1. #1
    kaito kid is offline Banned
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    Default Comments and forex-analytics from FBS



    Dear Traders!

    I'm glad to present in this thread the analytics of FBS brokerage company.

    Analytical support is one of our strongest advantages. FBS has a large in-house analytical department, gathering top level professionals in market research. Our analysts provide round-the-clock analytical support based on over 120 local markets news sources, comments, opinions and predictions. Our analysts also provide comments for several business broadcasting companies and TV shows.
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    EUR is up on Greek polls
    Monday, May 28, 2012 - 07:01

    The single currency opened with a gap up versus the greenback after setting new 2-year minimum at $1.2495 on Friday. Today EUR/USD managed to strengthen to $1.2600.

    The market’s sentiment improved as the polls showed that the pro-bailout party (New Democracy) in Greece was 5.7 percentage points over Syriza, the main opposition force to the bailout ahead of the second elections due on June 17.

    According to data from CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the number of shorts on EUR/USD reached the highest level since 1999 of 195K. That means that speculators may trim short positions on any sighs that Greek political situations improved.

    The uncertainty, however, remains high, so the baseline scenario is still for euro to slide to $1.20.

    Resistance: $1.2620 (May 24 maximum), $1.2820 (May 22 maximum).

    Support: $1.2495 (May 25 minimum), $1.2483 and $1.2442.


    Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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    BOTMUFJ: bearish on EUR/JPY
    Monday, May 28, 2012 - 07:49

    The single currency maintained last week its bearish bias versus Japanese yen bottoming at 99.35.

    Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ are bearish on EUR/JPY.

    The specialists point out that euro breached 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of its advance from the January minimum and March maximum in 100 yen area.

    In their view, the pair may slide to 97.04 (January minimum).


    Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

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    Westpac: advises for trading NFP
    Monday, May 28, 2012 - 08:22

    May Non-Farm Payrolls release is approaching (Friday, June 1, 12:30 p.m. GMT). The report will be especially closely watched taking into account weak US economic rebound.

    Consensus forecast is +150K after +115K in April.


    Data from forexfactory.com

    Analysts at Westpac say that if NFP exceeds 150K one should sell USD/CAD. If the readings come in around 115K or lower, the trade should be quite the opposite as the greenback will strengthen on its safe haven status.

    The specialists think that the odds of the first outcome are higher. The bank underlines that manufacturing that usually precedes the payroll data will not be coming out, increasing the chances that forecasters will not be able to adjust for an upside shift. As a result, Westpac recommends selling USD/CAD at 1.0320, stopping 1.0450 and targeting 1.0075 (200-day MA). However, we would recommend you to be really careful out there as USD/CAD looks rather strong from the technical perspective.


    Chart. Daily USD/CAD

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    Euro: is there any cope for rebound?
    Monday, May 28, 2012 - 09:15

    Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ insist that the fact that euro’s is now so oversold can provoke a rebound to $1.2640, $1.2680/85 and possibly to $1.2720 if the bulls manage to push EUR/USD above $1.2610. At the same time, the specialists can’t help admitting that the resolute progress is Europe is unlikely anytime soon. The recovery, if there is such, will certainly remain a correction. BOTMUFJ still see euro sliding to $1.28 by the end of Q2, to $1.25 – by the end of Q3, to $1.23 – by the year-end and to $1.18 by the end of Q1, 2013.

    Nomura specialists underline that the overall economic weakness and political crisis ought to be enough to weigh on euro. The specialists warn that there’s evidence that euro zone investors are exiting themselves and buying other currencies such as US dollar. In their view, euro’s ability to rebound will be limited, so one better sell around $1.26 stopping at $1.2850 and looking for a move to $1.20.


    Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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    May 28 - June 1: main events of the week
    Monday, May 28, 2012 - 09:45



    Monday, May 28 – Tuesday, May 29

    Japan: According to analysts, Japan’s household spending in April may increase by 2.5% vs. a 3.4% growth in March. April retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% after a 10.3% growth in March.

    US: CB consumer confidence in May is forecasted to reach 69.6, indicating a general optimism. In April consumer confidence fell to 69.2 while was expected to reach 69.9. The small decrease was caused by a moderation in consumers’ short-term outlook despite improvement in current conditions assessments.

    Euro zone: Italy holds a T-bill auction.

    Wednesday, May 30

    Australia: Seasonally adjusted retail sales growth may slow down to 0.2% in April after a 0.9% increase in March, indicating decreased consumer spending. Construction work done in Q1 is forecasted to grow by 3.1% after a 4.6% decline in Q4 (lowest since 2001).

    Switzerland: KOF Economic Barometer index is forecasted to increase to 0.44 in May, indicating that the Swiss Economy is headed towards an expansion in 2012.

    Euro zone: Italy holds a 10-year bond auction; the previous bond auction, which was held a couple of weeks ago, went well, but the rate reached 5.66%. Later in the day ECB

    President Mario Draghi will be speaking in Brussels with the potential for a hint toward the ECB's actions in front of the following week's rate decision.

    US: Pending home sales in April are expected to remain unchanged after a 4.1% surge in March. U.S. holds a T-bill auction.

    Thursday, May 31

    New Zealand: NBNZ business confidence for May index is released (in April index reached 35.8). Most analysts expect the economic conditions to improve in May due to a surge in retail and services sectors. However, strong national currency keeps bugging exporters.

    Australia: Building approvals in April to increase by 0.7% after a 7.4% growth in March. Private capital expenditure in Q1 may surge by 4.1% after a 0.3% contraction in Q4, indicating an improved economic health.

    US: A bunch of important US data will be released. ADP estimate of US non-farm payrolls in May is expected to reach 139K after 119K in April. Preliminary GDP release is expected to show a 1.9% growth in Q1 compared with a 2.2% growth in Q4, indicating that the US economy is not strong enough to drive global growth on its own. Chicago PMI in May is forecasted to increase to 56.8 vs. 56.2 in April. A small decline in unemployment claims during the last week is expected (369K vs. 370K).

    Euro zone: German retail sales in April are expected to increase by 0.2% after a 1.6% surge in March; number of unemployed people in April may decline by 7K. French consumer spending in April may grow by 0.3% after a sharp decline in March. Euro Area Flash Estimate of Annual Inflation in May is expected to decline slightly to 2.5%. If the inflation rate estimate will change direction and increase, it may lower the chances of the ECB interest rate to remain low. Ireland holds a referendum on EU fiscal compact. The vote is crucial as it determines a crossroad for Ireland: the ‘Yes’ vote to the treaty could bring economic progress and financial stability together with unavoidable austerity measures. The ‘No’ vote will enhance downward pressure on the common currency.

    Friday, June 1

    China: Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to drop to 52.1 in May from 53.3 in April (reading above 50 indicates industry expansion).

    Switzerland: Retail sales growth may slow down to 3.6% compared with a 4.2% growth in April.

    Great Britain: According to forecasts, manufacturing PMI will decrease to 49.7 in May from 50.5 in April, indicating industry contraction and augmenting concerns on the U.K. economic conditions. Great Britain holds a 10-year bond auction.

    Canada: GDP in March is expected to grow by 0.3% after the Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.2% in February.

    US: Analysts expect the U.S. non-farm payrolls to increase by 152K. However, in April the labor market didn’t fulfill expectations rising only by 115K, far below the 172K consensus forecast. The March unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 8.1%. The unemployment declined to 8.1% in April from 8.2% in March, despite lower NFP job gains. The ISM manufacturing PMI in May is expected to drop slightly to 54.1 compared with 54.8 in April. However, the Markit index showed a slide to 53.9 in May.

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    Hopes for BOJ near-term easing are dashed
    Monday, May 28, 2012 - 10:37

    The greenback declined versus Japanese yen recoiling down from the downtrend resistance line. It happened as the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s April 27 meeting (when Asset Purchase Program was increased) ruined the speculation that the central bank will boost monetary easing.

    The BOJ is carefully trying to tell markets that the large-scale stimulus measures in February and April were exceptional and won't be easily repeated. The central bank acted to decrease expectations of frequent easing, though as yen surged reacting at the news, so that Governor Masaaki Shirakawa had to emphasize that there was no change to the bank's powerful easing stance.

    The Bank of Japan has to buy 20 trillion yen more of government bonds by June 2013. This month, however, Japanese monetary authorities failed to meet their asset-buying targets. This means that it may be difficult for the central bank to prop up the APP as often as earlier. In addition, even though the inflation goal of 1% is still far away (consumer prices added 0.2% in March y/y), the interest rates are already extremely low, while the markets are drowned with cash, so the odds are additional easing won’t be much of a help.

    Analysts at Credit Suisse claim that the BOJ actions confuse the markets: “What markets want to hear is not what Shirakawa thinks is right but the BOJ's strong determination to beat deflation.”


    Chart. Daily USD/JPY

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    Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD
    Monday, May 28, 2012 - 11:55

    Here’s another piece of bearish comments about EUR/USD.

    Technical analysts at Commerzbank point out that the single currency closed last week at below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of its move from June 2010 minimum to 2011 May maximum. The specialists also note that one may spot some divergence of the daily RSI. All this means that that there will be a decline after a slight rebound.

    Resistance for EUR/USD is found at $1.2681 and $1.2796/1.2825 (interim maximum and Fibonacci retracement of advance from January minimums to February maximums). Support lies at $1.2490 and $1.2067 (55-month MA). In the longer term euro could target $1.1876 (2010 minimum) and $1.1641 (2005 minimum).


    Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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    BBH: Aussie’s prospects may improve
    Monday, May 28, 2012 - 21:29

    Today Australian dollar bounced versus its US counterpart on improved risk sentiment.

    Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman claim that Australian dollar has poor prospects on the fundamental part as the markets remain all in all in the risk-aversion mode and expect more easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

    At the same time, the specialists underline that AUD/USD didn’t breached support provided by November minimums in the 0.9660 area, although euro hit 2-year low an equities declined. If Aussie manages to hold for a while, the outlook for the pair will become better as some technical indicators may turn in its favor.

    Resistance for AUD lies in the 0.9930 zone (May 22 maximum). There’s also resistance at 0.9875 (Ichimoku Cloud at H4 chart).


    Chart. Daily AUD/USD

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    May 29: currencies in focus
    Tuesday, May 29, 2012 - 06:29



    Today’s trading day began with risk aversion. EUR/USD is testing $1.2500 on the downside staying close to 2-year minimum which was hit on Friday.

    GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.5630/5730 area after last week’s sharp decline.

    AUD/USD dipped to 0.9800 as Australian markets fell, but then managed to return to 0.9860 during the Asian session.

    USD/JPY edged a bit higher once again approaching downtrend resistance line. A bunch of important data was released early Tuesday in Japan. Unemployment rate slightly increased in April to 4.6%. Japan’s retail sales keep rising for 5th consecutive month (a 5.8% growth), while household spending – for 3rd consecutive month (a 2.6% growth).

    CHF retains its strength despite the SNB’s President Thomas Jordan yesterday hinted at the possibility of introducing capital controls on foreign deposits, a measure which hasn't been used since the 1970s. This means that despite the threats of the nation’s monetary authorities traders still want to hold Swiss currency.

    Events to watch:

    Euro zone: Germany will announce key inflation results for May: experts anticipate 0.1% decline. Italy holds a T-bill auction (the market will be also awaiting Italian 10-year bond auction tomorrow).

    Britain: CBI index of retail sales may fall from -6 in April to -7 in May.

    US: Case-Shiller HPI is seen losing 2.7% in March (y/y). CB consumer confidence in May is forecasted to reach 69.6, indicating a general optimism. In April consumer confidence fell to 69.2 while was expected to reach 69.9. The small decrease was caused by a moderation in consumers’ short-term outlook despite improvement in current conditions assessments.

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