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  1. #101
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD

    AUD/USD, H4
    Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen line from above, forming Dead Cross pattern. However downward impetus wasn’t strong enough and the price is still stuck between red line and blue one. Chinkou Span is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 0.9432. If the price continues its fall, the next support will be at the upper border of the cloud (0.9316).



    AUD/USD, D1
    On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. Last week the pair had broken through the upper border of the cloud and consolidated above it. The next target for the Bears is 0.9520, the closest support level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.9375.



    Key levels
    Support levels: 0.9316, 0.9375.
    Resistance levels: 0.9432, 0.9520.

    Trading tips
    he signal of the trend reversal on the four-hour chart will be the cross between Chinkou Span line and the price chart. However daily chart indicates the development of the uprising trend. The target for the long-term buy orders is 0.9520.
    Anastasiya Glushkova
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  2. #102
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    USD/CAD: news from the New World will cause another wave of decline

    Current trend
    Since last Friday the pair has been trading near the upper limit of the descending channel, preparing to decline further down. The development of a new wave in the “bearish” movement will be supported by macro-economic statistics from US and Canada. It is expected that retail sales in Canada will grow up to 0.6%, while consumer confidence index in the USA will drop.
    If the pair breaks down resistance level of 1.0270, which is near the moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator, a sell signal will be formed. Quotes will go to the lower line of the indicator (1.0202) encountering resistance at the level of 1.0251 (local lows). The pair will not have sufficient momentum to continue further decline.


    Support and resistance
    Strong support level is the upper limit of the descending channel. Support levels are 1.0270 and 1.0251.

    Trading tips
    It is recommended to open short positions with the target of 1.0202. Stop-loss can be placed at the level of 1.0310.



    Kamil Avad
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  3. #103
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    NZD/USD: the pair has switched to the decline

    Current trend

    This week, quotes of the pair are declining. American dollar is regaining losses, caused by US Fed decision to extend validity of the quantitative easing program. Today the price has reached the weekly highs at the level of 0.8218. Additional pressure on the NZD was caused by the negative data on the rise in trade balance deficit in New Zealand, which has reached 1191 million NZD in August.

    Support and resistance

    In the near future the pair is likely to fall to 0.8170 (61.8% Fibonacci). If this level is broken down, the decline may continue up to the levels of 0.8130, 0.8075, 0.8030 and 0.7970 (level 50% Fibonacci). Upward correction can reach the level of 0.8280.
    Technical indicators confirm a chance of downward movement in price. Bollinger bands are directed downward; the price chart has recently broken down the bottom line of the indicator, suggesting minor ascending correction up to 0.8280. MACD histogram has moved to the oversold zone and formed a sell signal. Stochastic lines are entering oversold zone as well, forming a similar signal.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price with profit taking near 0.8075. Short-term long positions can be opened from the level of 0.8250 with profit taking at the level of 0.8280.



    Dmitriy Zolotov
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  4. #104
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD: USD is heading for strengthening

    Current trend

    On Tuesday the pair GBP/USD declined due to the rise in the USD. American statistics of construction sector was positive and members of Open Market Committee indicate that the cut in the volume of QE3 will take place in the near future. Tomorrow the data on the US GDP will become known; experts predict the rise in index by 0.1-0.2%, which will give additional support to the USD.
    British statistics disappointed investors, showing weak economic performance: number of approved mortgage applications was below the forecast. British GDP, which will be known tomorrow, is likely to remain unchanged.
    Today, retail sales index as per estimate by Confederation of British Industry will be released. Experts believe that the index will drop up to the level of 24 points. It is worth paying attention to the US economic statistics in the construction sector and changes in oil inventories.

    [b]Support and resistance /b]

    The pair fell below support level of 1.6000 and consolidated there. Next target is the limit of the ascending channel (1.5880). If this level is broken down, the price will go to the highs of June at the level of 1.5750; this movement can be considered as trend reversal. Otherwise, the pair can push off from the lower limit of the channel 1.5880 and continue to rise to 1.6300.
    Indicators confirm continuation of decline. On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is moving to the negative zone, it is below the signal line and is giving a strong sell signal. Indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo on the four-hour chart has formed “Dead cross”, also suggesting the decline in future.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation it is recommended to place short positions with profit taking near 1.5880-1.5750. Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.5880 with protective orders at the level of 1.5720 and a target of 1.6300.



    Dmitry Likhachev
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  5. #105
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD: Jacob Lew predicts bankruptcy of the U.S.

    Current trend

    Yesterday, the pair again failed to break down the level of 1.3458. However, it is too early to speak about upward correction or trend reversal. The data on American GDP and number of applications for unemployment benefits will be released today. It is expected that GDP will amount to 0.2%, while number of applications for unemployment benefits will increase by 10 thousand. These indices along with yesterday’s statement by Jacob Lew can trigger the rise in the pair to the winter’s highs of 1.3713. I would remind that yesterday the US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said in his speech about the threat of bankruptcy to the USA if the ceiling of the US public debt will not be legally increased.

    Support and resistance
    Technical analysis shows that the pair has all chances to rise to the upper limit of the channel, from where downward correction can develop. MACD indicator demonstrates that “bullish” movement will continue. Support level is 1.3458, resistance levels are 1.3568 and 1.3604.

    Trading tips

    As a trading strategy I recommend to open long positions with the target of 1.3713. Limit buy orders can be placed near resistance level of 1.3458 since it is not excluded that this level can be tested again.



    Kamil Avad
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  6. #106
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    Brent: general analysis

    Current trend

    The rate of crude oil Brent has been falling since the beginning of the European session. Black Gold is under pressure of fundamental data. UN negotiates with Iran about uranium enrichment program, and the President of Iran intends to conclude an agreement with international organization. Reduction of tension between Iran and international community makes oil cheaper.
    Another factor is US Energy Information Administration report on oil supplies last week. Oil reserves have reached the number of 2.64 million barrels, though it was expected to be 1 million barrels. Supplies increase, demand decreases and if this trend continues, the rate of the Brent may fall down to the level of $100 per barrel.

    Levels of support and resistance

    Support level is the lower border of an uprising channel at 107.74. Resistance level will be at 109.50.

    Trading tips

    Short positions should be opened after the breakdown of the lower border of the channel with stop-losses at 107.90 and targets at 104.25.



    Dmitry Agurbash
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  7. #107
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD

    XAU/USD, H4

    Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen line from below under the cloud, forming Golden Cross pattern. However upward impetus wasn’t enough and the price is still under Tenkan-sen line (1328.988). Though Kijun-sen line (1322.37) keeps the pair from falling. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below, current Kumo is descending.



    XAU/USD, D1

    On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, and they have been horizontal since the beginning of the week. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud has reversed from ascending to descending. This Monday the price has entered the cloud and been flat ever since. Lower border of the cloud is a support level at 1387.39, Tenkan-sen line remains resistance level at 1333.19.



    Key levels

    Support levels: 1322.37, 1387.39.
    Resistance levels: 1328.988, 1333.19.

    Trading tips

    On the four-hour chart further movement of the price will be determined by the breakdown of one of the levels: Tenkan-sen or Kijun-sen. On the daily chart the price has entered the cloud, we suggest to avoid new long-term positions.

    Anastasiya Glushkova
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  8. #108
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD: Euro will decline

    Current trend

    Following the US Fed’s statement that asset purchase program would not be reduced, the pair once again hit the highs of 1.3565. However, uptrend was short-lived and European currency returned to support level of 1.3460. It is likely that today the pair will trade in the narrow channel, moving slowly. Next week the US data on a number of jobs excluding agricultural sector will become known, which can change movement direction in the pair.
    Technical analysis shows that a clear buy signal is given only by Stochastic indicator, which is in the oversold zone. Other indicators do not give any signals.

    Support and resistance

    Support level of 1.3460 is the key level for the “bears”. Breakdown of this level will open the way to 1.3440, 1.3400 and 1.3355. Resistance levels are 1.3500, 13530 and 1.3565.

    Trading tips

    The most feasible scenario is the decline in the pair; however prior to this moment, the “bears” will need to break down the level of 1.3460, which will require additional momentum. It is recommended to sell after successful breakdown of this level and consolidation below it.



    Ilya Lashenko
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  9. #109
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD: the Pound is weakening

    Current trend

    At the end of last week the British currency has significantly grown against the USD. Even negative data on British GDP could not slacken upward movement. The rise was triggered by high demand for the Pound among investors and weakening of the USD due to dampened expectations of growth in the US GDP.
    This week uptrend continues and the pair has reached the local highs of 1.6180. The data on mortgage and consumer lending in UK is scheduled for the release today. In addition, it is worth paying attention to business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Chicago region.

    [b]Support and resistance /b]

    Traditionally, at the end of the tourist season the Pound strengthens along with the economic growth. Later uptrend is expected to shift to downtrend. Although rapid rise is unlikely, due to positive statistics the pair may reach the level of 1.6300.
    Support levels: 1.6050, 1.6000 and 1.5880.
    Resistance levels: 1.6150 and 1.6300.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions near 1.6000-1.5880. Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.6300 with the target of 1.6000.



    Dmitry Likhachev
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  10. #110
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    USD/CHF: investors are worried

    Current trend

    Last Friday the pair has broken through the support level at 0.9080, encouraging “bearish” sentiments. As for the fundamental data, Flash Manufacturing PMI will be published today. Besides, US government is under the threat of default. Politics can’t find an understanding regarding the national debt, and investors are getting nervous: US indices futures have opened the week with almost 1% of the decrease. News from Zurich is also worrisome: Swiss banks are to be in the least beneficial category of the American program of tax regulation.
    According to the price chart the pair is in the downward trend. Bollinger Bands indicator confirms the descending movement, its middle MA has fallen down to the level of 0.9085. MACD histogram has crossed the signal line from above, forming a signal to sell. We expect the price to go down to the level of 0.9029, and on the 1st of October with the beginning of the new financial year the trend will reverse.

    [b]Support and resistance /b]

    Main support levels are 0.9085 and 0.9039. New financial year and positive statistics from USA are the only factors which can help the pair to break down the resistance at the levels of 0.9065 and 0.9045.

    Trading tips

    It is recommended to open short positions at current price with Take Profits at 0.9065. Targets for the long positions and for the pending orders to buy are at the level of 0.9065.



    Andrey Chupov
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

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