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  1. #1101
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD: general review

    Current trend
    Last week the Bank of England announced its decision on the interest rate. The value of 0.25% remained unchanged, but in the comments on the fiscal policy the representatives of the Central Bank announced not only positive aspects but also risks for the UK in view of the upcoming Brexit negotiations. At the same time, BOE report on the monetary policy strengthened the pair after it became known that three out of eight members of the committee voted for the increase of the rate.
    Within the next week market participants may expect high volatility in the trading instrument as Brexit negotiations are going to be complicated.
    No important releases are expected from the USA or UK today, therefore the pair is likely to consolidated with a slight "bullish" tendency. The key even of the current week will be the release of the data from the US Department of Labor on the number of initial jobless claims.

    Support and resistance
    On D1 chart the pair is trading in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator has reversed downwards while the price range has slightly narrowed confirming the turn from the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone with its volumes reducing keeping the sell signal. Stochatic does not give clear signal for entering the market.
    Support levels: 1.2575, 1.2665, 1.2735.
    Resistance levels: 1.2845, 1.2905, 1.2975, 1.3015.

    Trading tips
    Short positions could be opened from the level of 1.2835 with targets at 1.2665 and stop-loss at 1.2890. The period of implementation is 2-4 days.
    Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2865 with target at 1.2980 and stop-loss at 1.2810. The period of implementation is 2-4 days.


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  2. #1102
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    Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

    Current trend
    Oil prices began to fall on May, 25, after the OPEC decision to prolong the oil production limitation Agreement. In the end of the last week the price met the strong support around 46.70. The reaction of the oil price around this year minimum will possibly determine the further price movement in the nearest future. The active development of the shale oil production in the USA is one of the main factors, which are weakening the oil. Besides, the OPEC Agreement leads to the gradual lowering of the world oil resources. In his last speech the Saudi Arabia Industrial and Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih was confident, that in the 4th quarter 2017 the oil price and recourses will reach the needed balance.
    The EIA Crude Oil Stocks change data, which are due at 16:30 (GMT+2) tomorrow, will clear the further development of the situation. The amount of the resources is expected to lower. The Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count, due at 19:00 (GMT+2) on Friday, is an important issue, too.
    Today at 14:00 (GMT+2) and at 21:00 (GMT+2) the USA FRS Members Fischer and Kaplan speeches will be published. According to the last FRS Members commentaries and the Head of the FRS Janet Yellen speech rhetoric, they are trying to support the USD verbally despite the macroeconomic reality.
    The development of the correction is expected in the nearest two days.

    Support and resistance
    Support levels: 46.70, 45.80, 45.00, 44.10.
    Resistance levels: 47.30, 48.50, 50.00, 51.50.

    Trading scenario
    Open long positions at the current price with the target at 48.50, 50.00 and stop loss at 46.90.
    Open short positions at the level of 46.70, with the target at 45.80, 45.00 and stop loss at 47.40.


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    Sergei Shuvalov
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  3. #1103
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    AUD/USD: general review

    Current trend
    In the end of the previous week AUD consolidated in view of unexpectedly positive data from the Australian labor market. The pair AUD/USD broke through the psychologically important level of 0.7500 and the upper border of the 6-weeks upward channel (green line in H4). After that the statements by FOMC members strengthened USD, and the pair consolidated between 0.7570 and 0.7630.
    Yesterday Australian dollar received support from the Reserve Bank of Australia that discused threats to financial stability in its meeting.
    Secondary housing market statistics from the USA is due today at 16:00 (GMT+2), and a slight decrease of the outlook is expected. The data on the reserves of petrochemicals (with an expected drop in the volumes of crude oil and gasoline) are due at 16:30 (GMT+2).
    The main forecast for the next two days is the weakening of the pair.

    Support and resistance
    Support levels: 0.7530, 0.7490, 0.7440.
    Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7630, 0.7680.

    Trading tips
    Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.7530, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7590.
    Alternatively, long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7570 with targets at 0.7630, 0.7680 and stop-loss at 0.7510.



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    Sergei Shuvalov
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  4. #1104
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD: general review

    Current trend
    The pair GBP/USD continues to show instability in view of political events in the UK. Yesterday the pair dropped during early trading having tested the support level 1.2600. But after the promises of Prime Minister Theresa May to organize the Brexit procedure as mildly as possible, the price moved to 1.2700. Due to high volatility it is impossible to forecee futher movements of the price, and current marker instability may remain until the beginning of Brexit negotiations.
    Today in the absence of important macroeconomic releases from the UK and the USA attention should be paid to technical indicators.

    Support and resistance
    On the H4 chart the pair is trading between the middle and lower lines of Bollinger Bands and is showing side movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone with the sale signal weakening. Stochastic is in the neutral area showing side movement and does not give a clear signal for entering the market.
    Support levels: 1.2635, 1.2600.
    Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2750, 1.2780, 1.2800.

    Trading tips
    Short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2700.
    Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2720 with targets at 1.2780 and stop-loss at 1.2690.
    The period of implementation is 1-2 days.


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    Sergei Shuvalov
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  5. #1105
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    WTI Crude Oil: technical analysis

    WTI Crude Oil, D1
    On D1 chart the instrument is decreasing along the lower border of Bollinger Bands. The price range is widened, and the next target is the support level of 42.00. In case this level is broken through, the price will continue to move to 41.50, 41.00. MACD histogram is in the negative area and gradually increases its volumes. The signal line is crossing to body of the histogram Stochastic is in the oversold zone and is about to cross the border wth the neutral area.

    WTI Crude Oil, H4
    On the H4 chart the price corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The price is moving within the 42.00 - 43.00 range formed by the middle and lower borders of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for the opening of short positions. Stochatic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are directed downwards.

    Key levels
    Support levels: 42.00, 41.50, 41.00.
    Resistance levels: 44.00, 45.80, 46.50, 47.15, 48.00, 49.30, 50.00, 50.50, 51.70, 52.50, 53.00.

    Trading tips
    According to technical indicators, short positions could be opened from the current level with targets at 42.00 and stop-loss at 43.20. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
    Long positions may be opened from 44.30 with targets at 45.80 and stop-loss at 43.80. The implementation period is 3-5 days.



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    Sergei Shuvalov
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  6. #1106
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD: summer drop and volatility

    Current trend
    The rate of EUR/USD is in the side tendency and has been consolidating in the narrow channel for a month. The summer season is at its peak, and the leaders of Eurozone and the USA have postoponed their key decisions for autumn. The only movement catalyst was the decision of FOMC to increase the rates that has been in the making for a long time.
    Despite this, the rate of USD against EUR underwent almost no significant changes. The pair has been trading within the limit of 120 points since the middle of May. Last week it dropped due to the growth of demand for USD in view of FOMC decisions but by Friday the pair returned to starting points. Today the economic calendar containst no macroeconomic releases from Europe and the USA.

    Support and resistance
    No major fluctuations of the pair are expected in the medium term. Lateral channel is likely to narrow down. Even tomorrow's statements by ECB President Mario Draghi and FOMC chair Janet Yelln are not likely to provoke volatility.
    Despite this, the upward trend has been broken, and there is high possibility that the pair will drop in the long term. The downward tendency may continue to the lower border of the long-term upward range at 1.0820. The main supporting factors are weak demand for EUR in view of Brexit and growing investors' interest in weakened USD supported by the increase of the key interest rate. Technical indicators confirm the downward tendency. The volumes of long positions in MACD indicator dropped rapidly, and Bollinger Bands are rearranging horizontally.
    Support levels: 1.1155, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1020, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0820, 1.0710, 1.0570.
    Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1230, 1.1280, 1.1350, 1.1370, 1.1470.

    Trading tips
    Positions may be opened from the borders of the channel. Short positions may be opened after a sell signal following the breakout of the key support levels 1.1125, 1.1100 with targets at 1.0950, 1.0820.


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    Sergei Shuvalov
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  7. #1107
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    Brent Crude Oil: general review

    Current trend
    Oil quotes attempted to grow once again. Moving away from the support level of 45.17, they are trying to consolidate above the resistance level of 46.31. Technical indicators show the increasing influence of the buyers. Bollinger Bands are pointing upwards. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively reducing in the negative zone and have moved to the positive one. Breaking through the level of 46.31 will be a signal of growth continuation. In this case the nearest targets of the buyers will be 47.00, 48.00. If the level of 46.31 is not bronek through, and the sellers manage to take the initiative, the fall will continue to 45.58, 44.48.
    Today market players will pay attention to initial data from API on weekly changes of oil reserves in the USA (22:30, GMT+2). If the report points at considerable reduction of reserve, Brent will gain strong support in the short term. Otherwise the fall will continue. Generally the news in the oil market remain negative. The market still has not seen any effect from OPEC+ agreement extension. Due to the remaining oversupply of oil it is difficult for the prices to move to stable growth.

    Support and resistance
    Support levels: 45.58, 44.48, 43.52.
    Resistance levels: 46.31, 47.00, 48.01.

    Trading tips
    Buy positions may be opened above the level of 46.31 with targets at 47.00, 48.00 and stop-loss at 46.20.
    Sell positions may be opened below 45.58 with targets at 44.48 and stop-loss at 48.88.


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    Sergei Shuvalov
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  8. #1108
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    NZD/USD: general review

    Current trend
    As a result of yesterday's trading the rate of the pair NZD/USD demonstrated mixed dynamics and closed at 0.7269. USD consolidated in view of comments by the member of FOMC Open Markets Committee Patrick Harker supporting the increase of the rates this year. The pair was also influenced by the "hawkish" tone of comments made by the ECB head Mario Draghi who stated that the increase of interest rates in the near future. Fiscal policies of ECB and FOMC differ from that of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. While FOMC and ECB speak about the increase of the rates, RBN remains neutral.
    Today the rate of the pair may be influenced by the data on the on-going housing sales transactions from the USA. The indicator is expected to grow by 0.8% and a result above expected may give additional support to USD.

    Support and resistance
    On the H4 chart the instrument is moving in the narrow range formed by middle and lower lines of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive area with it volumes decreasing. Stochastic is crossing the borders of the neutral zone and the oversold zone from below, forming a signal for the opening of long positions.
    Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7160, 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7050.
    Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7320, 0.7350.

    Trading tips
    Short positions may be opened from 0.7250 with targets at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
    Long positions may be opened from 0.7290 with targets at 0.7340 and stop-loss at 0.7260.
    The period of implementation is 1-3 days.


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    Sergei Shuvalov
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  9. #1109
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    USD/CHF: general analysis

    Current trend
    The US dollar has been weakening against the Swiss franc for the third day. At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 0.9577. The nearest key support level is 0.9521. The fall of the USD is caused mainly by the IMF commentary upon the decreasing of the expecting growth rate of the US economy. Analysts expect that the forecast is connected with the disagreement of the Republicans and Democrats in the White House, which can prevent all the Presidentís attempts to imply the tax reformation. Originally the plan was to decrease the federal budget income tax rate for corporations to 15%. According to Congressmen, the step can lead to 2 trillion USD shortage in the budget. On the other hand, this can lead to the increase of the economy growth rate and compensate the lowering of the tax base. In addition, the IMF experts noted that the USD is overpriced by 10-15% against main world currencies at the moment, which undermines the competitiveness of the US goods and negatively affects the economy growth.
    The Initial Jobless Claims data will we published today in the USA: the index is expected to stay at the same level of 240K. The Q1 Gross Domestic Product Annualized publication is also expected today.

    Support and resistance
    Support level: 0.9521.
    Resistance level: 0.9643.

    Trading scenario
    Long positions can be opened at the level of 0.9643 with the target at 0.9700 and stop loss around 0.9521.



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  10. #1110
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    AUD/USD: general analysis

    Current trend
    The AUD/USD pair is strongly growing during the last week, and the main driver of the increase is the uncertainty in the further USA monetary policy.
    Yesterday the key issue was the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullardís speech, after which the pair managed to break the resistance level of 0.7780 and reached March maximum. According to Bullard, the main FRS problem is the inflation level in the country, which doesnít meet the US regulatorís plans to increase the interest rate this year. The FRS official added that itís difficult to reach the target of 2%, and the fall of the treasury bonds yields is connected with the inflation risks. However, Bullard highlighted the good employment YoY data and accented, that he expected the more positive statistics in the future.
    Today the traders should pay attention to the Personal Spending data publication in the USA. The index is the key inflation indicator, and the weak data can support the pair greatly.

    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart the pair consolidated above the level of 0.7680. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards, as the price range stays the same, which reflects the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic entered the oversold area.
    Support levels: 0.7675, 0.7637, 0.7610, 0.7575.
    Resistance levels: 0.7712, 0.7740, 0.7765.

    Trading scenario
    Long positions can be opened at the current price with targets at 0.7715, 0.7755 and stop loss at 0.7655. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7655 with the target at 0.7580 and stop loss 0.7685. Implementation period: 1-3 days.


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