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  1. #1201
    MikhailLF is offline Member
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    EUR/USD: Powell strengthened dollar

    Current trend

    In the beginning of the week the pair was growing to the area of 1.1962 (Murray [4/8]), but was corrected and is now trading around 1.1880.
    USD strengthened after Powell’s statements before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate meeting. Today the Committee should make a decision upon the conformation of Fed’s head. Powell noted, that the regulator will maintain the increasing rates and reducing balance-sheets policy and support the employment market and stimulate the inflation. He also supported the banks activity on the stocks markets restriction laws, which will let US financial system be strengthened.

    Powell’s statement stimulated the growth of dollar, but it’s unclear, how significant will it be. Today the investors are focused on Trumps meeting with the US Senate Republican Party members, where he will try to persuade them to vote for the tax reform package, but earlier senators Ron Johnson and Bob Corker threatened to vote against the new laws. The result of the negotiations can bring the pair significant volatility.

    Support and resistance

    The price weakened below the level of 1.1900 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands and can be corrected to the levels of 1.1840 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.1780 (Murray [1/8]). The growth to the levels of 1.2023 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2085 (Murray [6/8]) is possible after the breakout of the level of 1.1962 (Murray [4/8]).

    Resistance levels: 1.1900, 1.1962, 1.2023, 1.2085.
    Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1780, 1.1718.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1780 and stop loss at 1.1930.
    The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.1962 will make long positions with the targets at 1.2023, 1.2085 and stop loss at 1.1930 relevant.


  2. #1202
    MikhailLF is offline Member
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    USD/JPY: the pair has been corrected

    Current trend

    Today the pair moved away from the resistance level of 111.65 and dropped to 111.38. This dynamics was caused by yet another launch of a ballistic missile by North Korea. International leaders traditionally criticized the launch. Donald Trump said the missile was a threat to the whole world, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in asked North Korea to stop aggression and embark on negotiations. However, the general reaction of the market was not noticeable. The announcement of North Korean officials that the main tasks of the nuclear program had been completed also gives certain optimism.

    Political tension pushed economic data backwards, and they are generally negative for yen. October statistics on retail sales was weak. The indicator made up 0.0% MoM and -0.2% YoY. Retail sales in major stores also dropped by 0.77%. According to a monthly report of the Japanese government, the national economy is moderately restoring, but internal consumption does not grow fast enough due to slower salary increase rates thus putting pressure on GDP.

    Support and resistance

    Right now the price is restoring positions after a morning fall. A key level for the “bulls” is 111.65. Its breakout will open the way for further growth to 112.50 (Murrey [8/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands). Breaking down the level of110.93 (Murrey [7/8]) will open the way for further fall to 110.20 and 109.37 (Murrey [6/8]). Technical indicators show possible upward correction. Stochastic is leaving the oversold area, and MACD histogram begins to reduce in the negative zone.

    Support levels: 110.93, 110.20, 109.37.
    Resistance levels: 111.65, 112.50, 113.20.

    Trading tips

    Buy positions may be opened above the level of 111.65 with target at 112.50 and stop-loss at 111.10.
    The consolidation of the price below 110.93 and the reversal around 111.65 will make short positions relevant with targets at 110.20, 109.37 and stop-loss at 111.30 and 112.00.


  3. #1203
    MikhailLF is offline Member
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    EUR/USD: inflation in Eurozone disappointed investors

    Current trend

    Today the pair continues to reduce under the influence of weak European statistics. Retail sales in Germany dropped by 1.2% MoM and 1.4% YoY in October. Investors were mostly negative about initial November data on Eurozone inflation. The values failed to reach outlook levels: CPI made up 1.5% (instead of the expected 1.6%), and the basic value of the index remained unchanged and made up 0.9%. Therefore, despite the growth of Eurozone economy, inflation continues to lag back reducing the possibility of material monetary policy tightening by ECB.
    During the day the market also waited for the release of October statistics on personal spending in the USA. The indicator is expected to grow which may support further strengthening of the US currency.

    Support and resistance

    Right now the pair is trading around the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and in case it is broken through may continue to be corrected to 1.1750 (middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]). Otherwise the price may resume growth to 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]) and further to August maximums at 1.2085 (Murrey [3/8]). Right now the continuation of the fall seems more likely as Stochastic is directed downwards.

    Support levels: 1.1750, 1.1596.
    Resistance levels: 1.1962, 1.2085.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation sell positions should be opened below the level of 1.1840 with targets at 1.1750, 1.1718 and stop-loss at 1.1860.
    Buy positions should be opened from the level of 1.1880 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2085 and stop-loss at 1.1840.


  4. #1204
    MikhailLF is offline Member
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    GBP/USD: the pound stopped strengthening

    Current trend

    Last week the pair continued to grow and today reached the level of 1.3548 (Murrey [6/8]). By now it has been corrected to the level of 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) but may resume growth as the general background is negative for USD. Investors were disappointed that the Senate stopped the discussion of the tax reform and moved the vote from Thursday to Friday. The market is also unstable due to the news about possible dismissal of the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson due to his recent conflict with President Trump.
    On the other hand, the pound is supported by strong data on the UK industrial PMI. In November the indicator grew from 56.6 to 58.2 points which is the best value since 2013. Correction may continue if strong data on ISM industrial PMI are released from the USA. However, the indicator is expected to fall (from 58.7 to 58.4 points).

    Support and resistance

    Right now the pair is trading around 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) and is trying to move upwards. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 1.3549 (Murrey [6/8]). Breaking through it will open the way for further growth of the pair to 1.3610 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.3670 (Murrey [8/8]). The consolidation of the price below 1.3488 will lead to further reduction to 1.3427 (Murrey [4/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3366 (Murrey [3/8]). Technical indicators provide for correction. Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram started to fall in the positive zone and broke down the signal line.

    Support levels: 1.3488, 1.3427, 1.3366.
    Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3610, 1.3671.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.3550 with targets at 1.3610, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3510.
    Sell positions should be opened below the level of 1.43888 with targets at 1.3427, 1.3367 and stop-loss at 1.3520.


  5. #1205
    MikhailLF is offline Member
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    FTSE: technical analysis

    FTSE, D1

    On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is growing, having failed its strong support just above the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is testing from below its longer MA.

    FTSE, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is growing to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite turned up as well, having failed its longer MA.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 7285.0 (August lows), 7200.0 (September lows), 7130.0 (October 2016 highs).
    Resistance levels: 7450.0 (March highs), 7516.0 (July highs), 7545.0 (August highs).

    Trading tips

    The price keeps trading in a long-term sideways channel remaining near the middle of it.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 7285.0 with targets at 7200.0, 7130.0 and stop-loss at 7345.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 7450.0 with targets at 7516.0, 7545.0 and stop-loss at 7410.0. Validity – 3-5 days.



    Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

  6. #1206
    MikhailLF is offline Member
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    EUR/USD: the pair is waiting

    Current trend

    During the current week the pair is trading near the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) but is unable to move below it because it is supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands. In the near future the price may remain within the range of 1.1800-1.1850 although potential of reduction to 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) remains. Still, investors are unlikely to take risks before Friday releases from the US labor market (the indicator is about to reduce from 260K to 200K).

    Moreover, market is unstable due to the uncertain situation with the US state debt limit. The Congress has to agree on its increase before Friday, otherwise the financing of governmental structures will be reduced, and some of them may stop working.
    Today attention should be paid to November employment data by ADP that are considered an early indicator for federal statistics. The indicator is expected to drop from 235K to 185K causing the growth of the price and the weakening of the US currency.

    Support and resistance

    Technical indicators show possible continuation of the fall. Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram has crossed the signal line from above. Still, one may speak about the opening of short positions only after the price consolidates below the middle line of Bollinger Bands. In this case it may go down to 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and 1.1657 (Murrey [-2/8] for H4). In case the price consolidates above 1.1840, growth may continue to 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]).

    Support levels: 1.1800, 1.1718, 1.1657.
    Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1930, 1.1962.

    Trading tips

    Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.1800 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1850. Buy positions should be opened from 1.1870 with target at 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1840.


  7. #1207
    MikhailLF is offline Member
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    XAU/USD: Fibonacci analysis

    Current trend

    In the H4 chart the price has been showing a downward trend for the second week in a row. By now it has tested the level of 1255.70 and, according to MACD histogram that is increasing in the negative zone and Bollinger Bands directed downwards, it ready to continue reduction. In case of reversal the price may be corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 1266.00 (correction by 23.6%).

    D1 chart is more interesting. The price has broken out the lower border of the horizontal channel (around 1265.00) within which it has been trading since September. By now the quotes have potential for further reduction to the gathering of corrections at 1242.00 (50,0% for W1, 76,4% for D1). However, to do so they would have to break through the upward fan. The key area for the “bulls” is 1265.00 (gathering of 38.2% correction for W1 and 61.8% for D1). In case the price returns to the side channel, growth may continue to 1279.50 (correction 50.0% for D1, middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1297.00 (gathering of corrections 23.6% for W1 and 38.2% for D1). Indicators show mixed signals. MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone. Bollinger Bands start to diverge confirming the formation of the downward trend. However, Stochastic has entered the oversold area which may cause the formation of a buy signal.

    Trading tips

    Sell positions should be opened below the level of 1255.00 with target at 1242.00 and stop-loss at 1262.00.

    Alternative scenario

    Buy positions may be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 1265.00 with targets at 1279.50, 1297.00. Stop-loss should be placed around 1257.00


  8. #1208
    MikhailLF is offline Member
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    GBP/USD: general review

    Current trend

    Today the pair rose to the level of 1.3515 after the UK and the EU entered into intermediary agreements. According to them, the UK has to grant special rights to 4 mln EU citizens living in its territory, pay 40 to 60 mln euro for withdrawal, and eliminate excessive control at the border of North Ireland. Now the parties may start discussing the trading agreement, but it promises to be even more complicated. Before that Theresa May pointed out that she would try to enter into a free trade contract with the EU under privileged conditions, but it is still unclear what the UK government is ready to trade for it. The absence of clearance may put pressure on the UK businesses and therefore the pound. During the day GBP was also supported by positive statistics: the volume of industrial output in October grew by 3.5%, and the volume of processing industry – by 3.9%.

    Right now the pair is being corrected, but the price may reverse if the data from the US labor market released today is weak. The number of workplaces is expected to drop from 261K to 200K. Similar data by ADP released earlier confirmed the negative trend (the indicator reduced from 235K to 190K).

    Support and resistance

    Right now the price is testing the level of 1.3427 (Murrey [4/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands), and in case it is broken down, may continue to decrease to 1.3366 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.3305 (Murrey [2/8]). In case the level of 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) is broken out, the price may continue to grow to 1.3550 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.3610 (Murrey [7/8]). Technical indicators show the continuation of the fall. Stochastic is leaving the overbought ares, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.

    Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3366, 1.3305.
    Resistance levels: 1.3488, 1.3550, 1.3610.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation sell positions may be opened below 1.3427 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with targets at 1.3366, 1.3305 and stop-loss at 1.3465.
    Buy positions may be opened above 1.3488 with targets at 1.3550, 1.3610 and stop-loss at 1.3455.


  9. #1209
    MikhailLF is offline Member
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    EUR/USD: general review

    Current trend

    The pair opened the week with upward correction continuing to act on the mixed November data from the US labor market. The number of nonfarm payrolls was above expectations (228K) but still reduced compared to the previous value (244K). Moreover, hourly growth of salary failed to reach the forecast levels and made up 0.2%. Generally, these data should not have an impact on the decision of the Fed’s members to increase the interest rate again during its December meeting, but it may be of importance in the long run.
    The last Fed’s meeting this year is scheduled for this week and will be interesting for the investors not only because of the long-awaited decision on the interest rate but also due to follow-up statements, a press conference, and inflation and economic growth outlooks. In November the market received a number of negative signals indicating possible slowdown in the tightening of the monetary policy due to insufficient inflation growth in the country. At first it was pointed out by Janet Yellen, and then after the release of the recent Fed’s minutes it turned out that the chairwoman was supported by a number of members as well. If Yellen confirms her negative view of the situation, USD may get considerably cheaper.

    Support and resistance

    Right now the price is moving to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If it consolidates above it and the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]) growth may continue to 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise the fall will resume to 1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1657 (Murrey [3/8]). Technical indicators don’t give a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed upwards, Bollinger Bands are narrowing before considerable movement, and MACD is reducing in the positive zone.

    Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.
    Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation sell positions may be opened below the level of 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1810.
    Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1810.


  10. #1210
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    USD/CAD: Murray analysis

    Current trend

    Since October on the daily chart the pair is trading above the Ultimate Resistance of Murray ([8/8]) around 1.2695, but cannot break the level of 1.2940 (Murray [+2/8]) and is trading within the horizontal channel. Now the price is trying to reverse into fall to the lover border of the range 1.2695. However, it needs to consolidate below the level of 1.2817 (Murray [+1/8]), as the price is set near it. Stochastic confirms the possibility of the decrease, entering the overbought zone, which reflects the perspective of a reversal. In addition, the price is near the temporal border, where the direction of the movement usually changes. If the price cannot break the level of 1.2817, it can grow to the levels of 1.2940 and 1.3000 (Murray [5/8] for H4).

    Support and resistance

    Resistance levels: 1.2940 ([+2/8]), 1.3000 ([5/8] for H4).
    Support levels: 1.2817 ([+1/8]), 1.2695 ([8/8]), 1.2573 ([7/8]).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the level 1.2817 with the target at 1.2695 and stop loss at around 1.2860.
    Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2940 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.2840.


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