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  1. #1251
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex:WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

    Current trend

    Today WTI oil prices are trying to grow to the level of 62.50.
    The price is supported by the last API report, which reflected the growth of US oil resources by 0.933 million barrel, and gas resources by 1.910 million barrel. In the evening, the market is waiting for the corresponding EIA report, which can push the price upwards (the growth of resources by 2.077 million barrel is expected).
    However, the general situation in the market is mixed. OPEC officials claim that it would rebalance soon and that OPEC+ Agreement is effective, however, the volumes of US shale “black gold” production and sales are growing. Last week the oil export from the USA, according to EIA, exceeded 2 million barrel per day. All the facts are the treats to the further growth of the prices and cause negative reaction of exporting countries. The head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo plans to dine with U.S. shale company executives next week in Houston. They are expected to negotiate upon shale oil sector limitation in order to keep the prices at the level of 60–70 USD per barrel. The value was mentioned as desired by Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih.

    Support and resistance

    The price is trying to grow to the level of 62.50 (Murray [8/8]) and can reach the levels of 64.06 (Murray [+2/8]), 65.62 (Murray [+1/8] W1). The level of 62.50 (Murray [8/8]) is the key “bearish” level, the breakdown of it will let the price fall to the levels of 60.93 (Murray [6/8]) and 59.37 (Murray [4/8], [7/8] W1). However, the further growth is more possible, as Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold area.
    Resistance levels: 63.28, 64.06, 65.62.
    Support levels: 62.50, 61.72, 60.93.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened at the current price with the targets at 64.06, 65.62, and stop loss 62.10.
    Short positions can be opened below the level of 62.50 with the target at 60.93 and stop loss around 62.80.


  2. #1252
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex:XAU/USD: Murray analysis

    On the daily chart, the price has weakened below the central line of Murray range 1312.50 ([4/8]) and can decrease further to the area of 1296.88 ([5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands for W1), which is confirmed by the downward reversal of Bollinger Bands and MACD histogram enter into the negative zone. However, as Stochastic is in the oversold area, the instrument can reverse and enter the correction to the levels of 1328.13 ([5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1343.75 ([6/8], [7/8] for W1).

    Support and resistance

    Resistance levels: 1312.50 ([4/8]), 1328.13 ([5/8]), 1343.75 ([6/8]).
    Support levels: 1296.88 ([3/8]), 1281.25 ([2/8]).

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1312.50 with the targets at 1328.13, 1343.75 and stop loss 1307.00.
    Short positions can be opened at the level of 1306.00 with the targets at 1296.88, 1281.25 and stop loss 1312.00.


  3. #1253
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex:NZD/USD: Murray analysis

    On the daily chart, the price is set around the level of 0.7200 ([6/8]), which it has reached after the 2-week decrease.
    The breakdown of it will let the price fall to the levels of 0.7141 ([5/8]) and 0.7080 ([4/8]). Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, and MACD histogram entered the negative zone, which confirms the assumption. Also, there are signs of the formation of the “twin peaks” figure, which is a reversal model of trend and reflects the decrease of the instrument.

    On the other hand, Stochastic is leaving the oversold area, which can afford the development of the upward correction. After the breakout of the level of 0.7263 ([7/8]), the price can grow to the levels of 0.7324 ([8/8]) and 0.7385 ([+1/8]).

    Support and resistance

    Resistance levels: 0.7263 ([7/8]), 0.7324 ([8/8]), 0.7385 ([+1/8]).
    Support levels: 0.7200 ([6/8]), 0.7141 ([5/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7200 with the targets at 0.7141, 0.7080 and stop loss 0.7230.
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7263 with the targets at 0.7324, 0.7385 and stop loss 0.7225.



  4. #1254
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex:EUR/USD: upward trend strengthens

    Current trend

    EUR again dominates against the dollar.
    After a significant correction from the local maximum of 1.2555, the euro dropped to the level of 1.2150, but, failing to consolidate below this level, the pair fought back and headed up. Since March 1, EUR has significantly strengthened. The main catalysts for growth were a decrease in demand for the dollar and a favorable fundamental background for the Eurozone.
    Today, the upward momentum remained on the confirmation of the forecasts for the growth rates of the Eurozone for Q4 2017. At the end of this week, attention should be paid to the US labor market and trade balance. The fastest reaction of the pair may be to data on Nonfarm Payrolls and on unemployment in the US.

    Support and resistance

    In the short term, the upward trend remains: the pair can grow up to the level of 1.2500 or to the local maximum of February (1.2555). In the future, much will depend on the trading moods, which will be formed in view of fundamental releases, mainly from the United States. In the case of weak data on the change in the number of people employed in non-agricultural industries and the unemployment rate, the dollar will lose significantly in investor support. The main scenario is the formation of an upward wave with a target of 1.2555 and a high probability of testing new highs.
    Technical indicators confirm the outlook: MACD shows a quick growth in the volume of long positions, Bollinger Bands are pointing up.
    Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2290, 1.2280, 1.2225, 1.2175, 1.2150.
    Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2520, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2585, 1.2630, 1.2700.

    Trading tips

    In this situation, long positions may be opened with targets at 1.2555, 1.2700 and stop-loss at 1.2330.


  5. #1255
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex: CAC: technical analysis

    CAC, D1

    On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

    CAC, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is testing its strong resistance in the overbought zone. The Composite is forming a Bearish divergence with the price.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 5265.0 (November 2017 lows), 5230.0 (August 2017 highs), 5170.0 (local lows).
    Resistance levels: 5375.0 (local highs), 5425.0 (local highs), 5450.0 (local highs).

    Trading tips

    There is a high chance of a downward reverse.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 5265.0 with targets at 5230.0, 5170.0 and stop-loss at 5305.0.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 5375.0 with targets at 5425.0, 5450.0 and stop-loss at 5340.0.


  6. #1256
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

    Current trend

    Today Brent Crude Oil is trying to recover after falling to 64.00 mark on Monday.
    The instrument was pressured by the EIA report, according to which the volume of shale oil production in the US will continue to grow: in March, it could increase to 6.82 million barrels per day, and in April –to 6.95 million barrels. New wells drilling is growing, too (by 110 units in February), which may create further expansion of production.
    Long-term pressure on the market can be exerted by the actual failure of negotiations between OPEC representatives and US shale companies during the CERAWeek. According to Bijan Zangeneh from Iran the situation is so serious that the cartel may start withdrawal from the OPEC+ agreement at the June meeting. This emergency measure should help limit the shale boom in the US and allow traditional exporters to maintain their market share.

    Support and resistance

    The instrument is in the midline of Bollinger Bands around 64.50. Investors are waiting for the publication of API report on US oil reserves. In case of an increase, quotes can go down to 63.28 (Murrey [1/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands) and 62.50 (Murrey [0/8]) marks. Otherwise, the targets for growth will be the 65.62 (Murrey [4/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 66.40 (Murrey [5/8]) marks.
    Indicators illustrate the uncertainty of the market. Bollinger Bands are located horizontally. MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Stochastic is reversing downwards.
    Support levels: 64.06, 63.28, 62.50.
    Resistance levels: 64.84, 65.62, 66.40.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened above the level of 64.84 with targets at 65.62, 66.40 and stop-loss at 64.30.
    Short positions will become relevant below 64.06 with targets at 63.28 and 62.50 and stop-loss at 64.50.


  7. #1257
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    On Thursday US dollar weakened and reached the level of 1.2410 (+0.58%).
    American currency is under pressure of US poor inflation data. In February CPI decreased from 0.5% to 0.2% MoM, and Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy fell from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM. The YoY CPI Ex Food & Energy, which determines Fed’s interest rate decision, stayed on the level of 1.8%. All the factors can make the regulator postpone the tightening of monetary policy.
    The investors are concerned about the resignation of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and assignment of Michael Pompeo to this post. The change is possibly made as a preparation for the trading war with China, as Pompeo supports Trump in this question actively. According to Reuters, the US administration is considering the implementation of fees on the Chinese goods amounting around 60 billion USD per year.
    Today the pair is in the downward correction after commentaries of Mario Draghi, who again noted that ECB policy would stay the same until the inflation reached the target level. EU Industrial Production data also affected the euro negatively. In January the index went down by 1.0%. Today the market is focused on US Retail Sales release, which is expected to be strong and strengthen USD.

    Support and resistance

    The price is now tending to the level of 1.2329 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), the breakout of which will let the instrument decrease to the levels of 1.2268 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2207 (Murray [5/8]). The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2400 will let the price grow to the area of 1.2451 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.2512 (Murray [+2/8]).
    Resistance levels: 1.2400, 1.2451, 1.2512.
    Support levels: 1.2329, 1.2268, 1.2207.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.2329 with the targets at 1.2268, 1.2207 and stop loss at у 1.2370.
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2400 with the targets at 1.2451, 1.2512 and stop loss at 1.2380.


  8. #1258
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex: GBP/USD: general review

    Current trend

    On Wednesday, the pair was trading near the level of 1.3977, but today it is making an attempt to decrease, having lowered to 1.3916 mark.
    USD is strengthening in view of a possible easing of banking regulation in the US. Dodd-Frank Act was adopted in 2010 after the global financial crisis. It significantly restricted the trading of banks in the stock market, banned investing in hedge funds more than 3% of bank's capital, and trading in the foreign exchange market. A new bill, approved by the Senate, allows banks with assets of less than USD 10 billion to trade on the exchange using their own funds. In addition, banks with a capital capacity of more than USD 250 billion will be subject to strict supervision (rather than current USD 50 billion) .
    The political crisis between Britain and Russia did not affect the market, because the volume of trade between the countries is insignificant.

    Support and resistance

    Now the instrument tends to 1.3916 mark (the middle of Murrey commercial range [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), which seems to be key. If it breaks down, the decline may continue to the levels of 1.3793 (Murrey [2/8], H4) and 1.3671 (Murrey [0/8]). In case of a price rebound and consolidation above 1.3977 mark, growth may resume to the levels of 1.4038 (Murrey [6/8], H4) and 1.4160 (Murrey [2/8]).
    The possibility of a decrease is more probable, as Stochastic is reversing down in the overbought zone.
    Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3671.
    Resistance levels: 1.3977, 1.4038, 1.4160.

    Trading tips

    Short positions may be opened below 1.3916 mark with targets at 1.3793, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3960.
    After the breakout of 1.3977 mark long positions may be opened with targets at 1.4038, 1.4160 and stop-loss at 1.3940.


  9. #1259
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis

    On the daily chart, the price is falling towards the strong level of 105.46 ([–1/8]), which it has been testing unsuccessfully during the last year. The consolidation of the price below it can let the price decrease further to the area of 104.68 ([-2/8]) and 103.90 ([-2/8], H4). The key “bullish” level is 106.25 ([0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), the breakout of it will let the instrument grow to the area of 107.80 ([2/8]) 108.60 ([3/8]). Technical indicators reading are mixed. On the one hand, Bollinger Bands confirms the long-term downward trend. However, the decrease of MACD in the negative zone and the strength of the level 105.46 reflect the possibility of reversal and the upward correction of the price. In general, the position should be opened with care.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 105.46 ([–1/8]), 104.68 ([–2/8]), 103.90 ([–2/8], H4).
    Resistance levels: 106.25 ([0/8]), 107.80 ([2/8]), 108.60 ([3/8]).

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around of the level 105.46 or above the level of 106.26 with the targets at 107.80, 108.60 and stop loss 105.10 and 105.90 correspondingly.
    Short positions can be opened only if the price is set below the level of 105.46 with the targets at 104.68, 103.90 and stop loss at у 105.80.


  10. #1260
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Friday’s US building market data were poor. In February, Building Permits indicator decreased from 1.377 million до 1.298 million, and Housing Starts fell from 1.329 million to 1.236 million. However, thanks to the positive US Industrial Production index, which increased by 1.1% in February, USD closed the week in a green zone and reached the level of 1.2260 against EUR.
    Today the price grew to the level of 1.2298, but no significant movement of the pair is expected in the nearest future. The market is waiting for Fed’s interest rate decision and especially for the new head of the regulator Jerome Powell’s following commentaries. At the end of February in his speech in Congress, he gave some hints that the interest rate could be increased four times this year instead of three times due to the economic growth, which exceeded the expectations. However, the recent poor data (the growth of unemployment by 4.1% and the decrease of CPI from 0.5% to 0.2%) may make him change his mind.

    Support and resistance

    Technically the price entered the middle Murray channel and decreased below the level of 1.2329 ([5/8]). It can fall further to the levels of 1.2207 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.2150. However, Stochastic is trying to reverse in the oversold area and can form a buy signal in the nearest future. In this case, the price can grow to the level of 1.2451 (Murray [6/8]).
    Resistance levels: 1.2329, 1.2451.
    Support levels: 1.2207, 1.2150, 1.2085.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.2329 with the target at 1.2451 and stop loss at 1.2290.
    Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2260 with the targets at 1.2207, 1.2150 and stop loss at around 1.2290.


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