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  1. #1281
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Yesterday the pair tried to enter the upward correction. It is now trading around 1.3960. The pound is supported by a reduction in public sector borrowing. In March, the indicator was –0.262 billion pounds. Thus, Chancellor Hammond continues the policy of reducing government spending and borrowing, which began after the referendum on Brexit.
    The investors are focused on Brexit negotiations. The main discussion goes within the British government and the Parliament, which is persuading Theresa May to let the UK stay in the Customs Union, while a number of key ministers, including David Davis and Boris Johnson, insists on the immediate leaving it. Today Brexit Minister Davis again claimed that after leaving Customs Union, UK will benefit a lot and can increase the country’s share in the world trade. He also noted that after the end of Brexit process, a number of bilateral trade agreements can be made with different counties, for example, with Canada.

    Support and resistance

    Technical picture is mixed. In case of the breakdown of the level of 1.3916 (Murray [2/8]), the price can fall to the levels of 1.3793 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.3671 (Murray [0/8]), which is confirmed by MACD, ready to enter the negative zone, and Bollinger Bands, reversing downwards. However, Stochastic is reversing in the oversold area, so a correction can develop to the middle line of Bollinger Bands to the area of 1.4090 or 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]).
    Resistance levels: 1.4090, 1.4160.
    Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3671.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.4000 with the targets at 1.4090 and 1.4160 and stop loss near the level of 1.3960.
    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3916 with the targets at 1.3793, 1.3671 and stop loss around 1.3950.


  2. #1282
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    The pair weakened to the level of 1.2170, where it is now trading, waiting for European regulator’s decision.
    In the absence of significant economic statistics releases, investors are preparing for the ECB meeting, which will be held on Thursday. Interest rate change is not expected. Moreover, regarding the recent weak economic data on inflation, retail sales and industrial production in the Eurozone, the regulator can delay the curtailment of the QE program. In these conditions, more attention will be paid to the text of the accompanying statement and the press conference of Mario Draghi, who may hint at further steps of the ECB.
    Chinese-American trade conflict is developing. According to The Wall Street Journal, another smartphones producer in China, Huawei, can be limited in US accessories supplies and be prohibited from Android software. Earlier ZTE was limited this way, but Beijing did not respond yet.

    Support and resistance

    The technical picture is mixed. The price has left the main Murray trade range and has fallen below the level of 1.2207 (Murray [0/8]), which reflects the possibility of a correction to the levels of 1.2268 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.2329 (Murray [2/8]). Stochastic confirms it, reversing upwards in the oversold area. However, the growth of MACD in the negative zone and the downward reversal of Bollinger Bands reflect the development of the downward trend to the level of 1.2085 (Murray [–2/8]).
    Resistance levels: 1.2207, 1.2268, 1.2329.
    Support levels: 1.2146, 1.2085.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2207 with the targets at 1.2268, 1.2329 and stop loss around 1.2170.
    Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2146 with the target at 1.2085 and stop loss near the level of 1.2180.


  3. #1283
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

    Current trend

    Last week, oil prices were trading within the range of 74.21–72.65 (Murray [7/8]–[5/8]).
    US Administration is giving controversial signals. At the end of the last week, in his Twitter, Donald Trump claimed, that the US would not accept artificially overpriced oil, which has led to the correction. However, this week American President claimed that he was intended to terminate the nuclear deal with Iran and imply new sanction against the third largest OPEC exporter. The execution of the plans will deprive the oil market of a great share of supply in a short term, which will support the prices. Iran is already having problems with sales. Companies would not make Iranian oil and petroleum products supply contracts, valid later than May, 12. The date is the deadline for the USA to make decisions on the new sanctions.
    Macroeconomic background is negative. According to API, US oil resources grew by 1.099 million barrel this week, according to EIA – by 2.170 million barrel. As the prices consolidated above the level of 70 USD per barrel, US shale oil producers are increasing the production. Today, Baker Hughes Rig Count will be published. Last week the number was 820 units.

    Support and resistance

    Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is pointed downwards. MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. The price is expected to move within the sideways channel.
    Support levels: 73.43, 72.65, 71.87.
    Resistance levels: 74.21, 75.00, 75.78.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 73.43 with the targets at 72.65, 72.00 and stop loss 73.70.
    Long positions can be opened at the level of 73.70 with the targets at 74.21, 75.00 and stop loss near the level of 73.40.


  4. #1284
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

    Current trend

    The British currency is under pressure of negative data on GDP in the UK in Q1. In quarterly terms, the indicator decreased from 0.4% to 0.1%, and in the annual one - from 1.4% to 1.2%. Thus, the negative data for GDP was added to the latest negative data on industrial production, the growth of wages, inflation and retail sales, and now investors see fewer chances of raising the interest rate by the Bank of England at the next May meeting.
    Additional pressure on the Pound was caused by changes in the UK government. On Monday, Sajid Javid was appointed as the new Home Secretary, who is, unlike his predecessor Amber Rudd, a Eurosceptic supporting country’s departure from the European Union. His appointment shifts the balance in Theresa May’s cabinet towards Brexit supporters, which could complicate and protract the negotiations.

    Support and resistance

    At present, the price remains in the region of 1.3720 and has the potential to fall further, especially if data on the Markit Manufacturing PMI for April, which is due on Tuesday, comes out weak (the index is expected to decline from 55.1 to 54.8 points). In this case, the price could reach the levels of 1.3549 (Murray [-1/8]) and 1.3427 (Murray [-2/8]). A breakout of the level of 1.3793 (Murray [1/8]) could lead to a growth towards the levels of 1.3916 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.4038 (Murray [3/8], middle MA of the Bollinger Bands).
    Support levels: 1.3671, 1.3549, 1.3427.
    Resistance levels: 1.3793, 1.3916, 1.4038.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3671 with targets at 1.3549, 1.3427 and stop-loss at 1.3710. Validity – 5-7 days.
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3793 with targets at 1.3916, 1.4038 and stop-loss at 1.3750. Validity – 5-7 days.


  5. #1285
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis

    FTSE, D1

    On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI keeps growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is trying to turn down, substantially diverging with the price dynamics.

    FTSE, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is growing as well, having broken out its longer MA.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 7480.0 (local lows), 7435.0 (local lows), 7377.0 (local lows).
    Resistance levels: 7595.0 (June 2017 highs), 7645.0 (local highs), 7700.0 (December 2017 highs).

    Trading tips

    The price is approaching a strong resistance near 7595.0. There is a chance of a downward reverse, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 7600.0 with targets at 7645.0, 7700.0 and stop-loss at 7570.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 7480.0 with targets at 7435.0, 7377.0 and stop-loss at 7515.0. Validity – 3-5 days.


  6. #1286
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Since the beginning of the month, the pair trades within the sideways channel 1.3610–1.3458 (Murray [6/8]–[1/8], Н4).
    UK employment statistic was mixed. The unemployment level stays record low –4.2%. Average Earning Including Bonus has grown by 2.9% during the last 2 months, which has exceeded the inflation growth of the period (2.7%). On the other hand, the growth rate of Average Earnings Excluding Bonus decreased from 2.8% to 2.6%.
    British economy is slowing after significant growth, which the Deputy Governor of the BoE Ben Broadbent confirmed in his interview for Daily Telegraph and due to the unclear situation about Brexit. Until the Summer EU Summit, UK must publish its plan of the relations with EU development during the transitional period. However, the British governing parties are not able to agree. On Tuesday, the Scottish Parliament rejected London Brexit low, as it restricts the rights of local parliamentarians.

    Support and resistance

    The price is tending to the lower border of the channel, but the fall is possible after consolidation below the level of 1.3427 (Murray [–2/8]), and the “bearish” targets will be at 1.3310 (the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3200. After the breakout of 1.3550 (Murray [–1/8]) the correction to the level of 1.3671 (Murray [0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. The indicators reflect the fall. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointed downwards. MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.
    Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3671.
    Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3310, 1.3200.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3310, 1.3200 and stop loss 1.3470.
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3550 with the target at 1.3671 and stop loss around 1.3510.
    Implementation period: 5–7 days.


  7. #1287
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: Murrey analysis

    This week, the price of WTI Crude oil continued to grow and is now testing the 71.87 mark ([6/8]). Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 73.43 ([7/8]) and 75.00 ([8/8]). Technical indicators generally confirm the development of an uptrend: Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, and MACD histogram grows in the positive zone; Stochastic is directed downwards, but it makes a reversal attempt.
    In the price fails to consolidate above 71.87, correction to the mid-range of Bollinger Bands (69.53) or to the mid-range of the Murray trade range (68.75 [4/8]) is possible. But so far this scenario seems less probable.
    Support and resistance
    Support levels: 70.31 ([5/8]), 69.53 ([1/8], H4), 68.75 ([4/8]).
    Resistance levels: 71.87 ([6/8]), 73.43 ([7/8]), 75.00 ([8/8]).

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened above the 71.87 mark with targets at 73.43, 75.00 and the stop-loss at 71.20.
    Short positions may be opened from the level of 71.00 with targets at 70.31, 69.53 and the stop-loss at 71.50.
    Implementation time: 5-7 days.


  8. #1288
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

    Current trend

    Last week, the pair was declining, and by now the price has fallen below the level of 1.3427 (Murray [2/8]).
    The current week will be full of important statistics that will allow investors to assess whether the British economy is able to begin recovery or will it continue the slowdown, which was recently talked about by Ben Broadbent, the deputy head of the Bank of England. On Wednesday, April data on inflation will be published. It is expected that the consumer price index will continue to decline and will amount to 2.3%. If the forecast is confirmed, the regulator can further delay the decision to raise the interest rate; however, taking into account the recent growth in wages, the purchasing power of British households will increase. Retail sales index in February promises to grow from 1.1% to 1.4%, and GDP - from 1.2% to 1.3%.
    Positive economic statistics may be offset by the Brexit negotiations. So far, the issues of the Irish border and membership in the customs union remain open and do not have a solution even within the ruling cabinet.

    Support and resistance

    Currently, the instrument is below 1.3427 mark and may continue to decline to levels of 1.3300 (Murray [1/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3183 (Murray [0/8]). If the price consolidates above 1.3550 mark, growth may continue to 1.3680.
    Technical indicators show decline: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointing down, MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.
    Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3183.
    Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3550, 1.3671.

    Trading tips

    Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3385 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3183 and stop-loss at 1.3430.
    Long positions may be opened above 1.3550 mark with the target at 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3510.
    Implementation time: 5-7 days.


  9. #1289
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

    XAG/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA. The Composite is growing, having broken out its longer MA.

    XAG/USD, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI turned down just below the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is falling, having broken down its longer MA.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 16.35 (local lows), 16.05 (March lows), 15.95 (April lows).
    Resistance levels: 16.75 (March highs), 16.95 (local highs), 17.05 (local highs).

    Trading tips

    The price keeps trading in a sideways channel. There is a chance of a downward correction.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.35 with targets at 16.05, 15.95 and stop-loss at 16.55. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 16.75 with targets at 16.95, 17.05 and stop-loss at 16.60. Validity – 3-5 days.


  10. #1290
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    On Wednesday, weak inflation data had pressured the British currency. The consumer price index continued to decline for the third month in a row and in April amounted to 2.4%. The basic consumer price index fell more strongly than expected and amounted to 2.1%. The Office of National Statistics of Great Britain notes that the decrease in inflation could be more significant, but it was compensated by the increase in the cost of fuel, the price of which reached a maximum for 3.5 years. Rapid approximation of the inflation rate to the target (2.0%) removes the need to raise the interest rate from the Bank of England. Under the current conditions, many market participants are waiting for it not earlier than by autumn.
    Today, the price reversed around 1.3305 (Murray [2/8]) and entered the correction due to positive April Retail Sales, which grew more than expected, and reached 1.6% MoM and 1.4% YoY. However, it is due to the sale of gasoline and Internet sales, as store sales remained the same.

    Support and resistance

    The key “bullish” level is 1.3427 (Murray [2/8], middle line of Bollinger bands). The breakout will let the price grow to 1.3488 (Murray [5/6]) and 1.3550 (Murray [6/8]). Otherwise, the price can return to 1.3305 (Murray [2/8]) and fall to 1.3244 (Murray [1/8]). Technical indicators reflect the increase. Stochastic is directed upwards, MACD decreases in the negative zone.
    Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3488, 1.3550.
    Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3305, 1.3244.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3366 with the targets at 1.3305, 1.3244, and stop loss 1.3400.
    Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3488, 1.3550 and stop loss 1.3400.
    Implementation period: 5–7 days.


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