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  1. #1291
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Yesterday, the pair correctionally grew and is now trying to consolidate above the level of 1.1718. USD is under pressure of canceling the US-DPRK summit, moreover, next week new sanctions may be imposed on DPRK. However, EUR is unstable due to the Italian and Spanish government crisis. The Socialist Party of Spain is ready to vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose advisers are accused of corruption.
    Investors continue to follow the development of US-China trade disputes. The recent agreements on the mutual suspension of duties and of the US trade deficit with the US 200 billion aroused serious criticism in the US Congress. The Donald Trump to declare that the trade agreement with the PRC could be changed since it is difficult to verify its results. Market participants saw in this the possibility of a breakdown of the transaction. In addition, the US currency is weakened due to the data. There are fears that the following duties on metals, the president's administration and the trade war (this time with Germany, Japan, and South Korea) will get a new round.

    Support and resistance

    The consolidation above 1.1718 (Murray [2/8]) will let the price grow to the levels of 1.1840 (Bollinger bands’ middle line), 1.1900. However, the indicators reflect the strength of sellers, so the decline to 1.1596 (Murray [–1/8]) and 1.1540 is possible. Bollinger bands are pointed down, MACD is growing in the negative zone, Stochastic is reversing downwards.
    Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900.
    Support levels: 1.1657, 1.1596, 1.1540.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the level 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1596, 1.1540 and stop loss 1.1690.
    Long positions can be opened at the level 1.1780 with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1900 and stop loss 1.1740.


  2. #1292
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

    On D1 chart, the instrument is testing the level of 109.37 ([6/8]), but cannot consolidate below it. If this happens, the price can reach the levels of 108.60 ([-2/8] on H4, the lower line of Bollinger Bands) and 107.81 ([5/8]). For the "bulls", the 110.00 is seen as the key level (in the midline of Bollinger Bands). If the instrument consolidates above it, further growth is likely to the level of 110.93 ([7/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands).
    Technical indicators show decline: MACD histogram is declining in the positive zone; Stochastic is pointing down but has approached the oversold zone, so a reverse and the formation of a signal to an upward correction are likely.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 109.37 ([6/8]), 108.60 ([-2/8], H4), 107.81 ([5/8]).
    Resistance levels: 110.00 (the midline of Bollinger Bands), 110.93 ([7/8]).

    Trading tips

    Short positions may be opened below 109.37 with targets at 108.60 и 107.81 and the stop-loss at 109.70.
    Long positions may be opened if the price reverses, from the level of 110.00, with the target at 110.93 and the stop-loss at 109.70.
    Implementation time: 5-7 days.


  3. #1293
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    This week, Australian investors are focused on the poor national building sector data, as housing prices in many cities are declining, especially in Sydney (2.3%) and Melbourne (1.3%). On Wednesday, Building Permits data will be released, which can decrease by 3% in April, reflecting, that the prices are falling and construction companies would not open new deals.
    The Australian Monetary Authority is still calm. Officials of the RBA, including its head Philip Lowe, have repeatedly noted that there is no need to correct the monetary policy. However, further tightening of the interest rate may put additional pressure on property prices and negatively affect the Australian economy in general. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held next week.

    Support and resistance

    Since the end of April, the price has been moving within the sideways range of 0.7568–0.7446 (Murray [4/8]–[2/8], the lower border of Bollinger bands). The price is now testing the level of 0.7507 (Murray [3/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) and then will move to the lower border of the sideways range, according to the indicators. Stochastic is directed downward, MACD histogram is set in the negative zone.
    Resistance levels: 0.7568, 0.7629.
    Support levels: 0.7507, 0.7446, 0.7385.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level 0.7507 with the targets at 0.7446, 0.7385 and stop loss around 0.7530.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7568 with the target at 0.7629 and stop loss 0.7530.


  4. #1294
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

    Current trend

    On Wednesday, EUR attempted a correction in view of positive German data on unemployment and retail sales.
    In April, the growth in retail sales significantly exceeded forecasts and amounted to 2.3%. In May, the unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%. The strengthening could be short-lived, as the political crisis in Italy continues to worsen. The new government, which should be formed by Carlo Cottarelli, is unlikely to receive the approval of the parliament, which will lead to new elections in September. Eurosceptics can gain enough votes to form a government again, and they may offer a way out of the EU.
    American investors are now following the development of the US-China trade conflict and the publication of data on US GDP. On Tuesday, Donald Trump said he could impose additional duties of USD 50 billion to pressure China in the new round of negotiations. PRC’s authorities confirmed the determination to defend their economic positions. US GDP in Q1 is likely to remain at the same level of 2.3%.
    Support and resistance


    The consolidation of the price above 1.1657 (Murray [5/8], H4) will give the prospect of growth to 1.1718 (Murray [0/8]) and 1.1780 (the midline of Bollinger Bands). A breakdown of 1.1540 (Murray [1/8], H4) will lead to a decrease to 1.1474 (Murray [-2/8]) and 1.1413 (Murray [-1/8], H4).
    Technical indicators give ambiguous signals: Bollinger Bands are pointing down, MACD histogram grows in the negative zone, Stochastics is preparing to leave the oversold zone and form a buy signal.
    Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1474, 1.1413.
    Resistance levels: 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780.

    Trading tips

    Sell positions may be opened from 1.1540 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1413 and stop-loss at 1.1580.
    Buy positions may be opened above 1.1657 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1780 and stop-loss at 1.1620.


  5. #1295
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

    Current trend

    After a serious decline last Friday, Brent crude oil attempted an upward correction reaching 77.70 (the midline of Bollinger Bands) but cannot consolidate above it.
    The instrument is constrained by the increase in the volume of the US commercial oil reserves according to the API (by 1.001 million barrels to 434.9 million barrels), as well as the possibility of an increase in production by 1 million barrels by OPEC countries and Russia in June. This should cover the supply shortage related to interruptions from Iran and Venezuela. European companies aren't leaving the Iranian oil market now, hoping that US sanctions will take effect only after the end of the 180-day preparatory period. In May, the volume of Iranian exports decreased insignificantly, from 2.6 to 2.5 million barrels per day. The place of European companies can be taken by Asian ones. The Chinese Sinopec is currently working on completing a USD 3 billion deal to develop the largest Iranian oil fields.
    In the evening, investors are waiting for new EIA data on US oil stocks. The drop of 1.200 million barrels is expected, which can provide serious support to prices.

    Support and resistance

    If the instrument consolidates above the midline of Bollinger Bands at 78.12 (Murray [+1/8]), growth is possible to 79.68 (Murray [6/8], H4) and 80.47 (Murray [7/8], H4). Otherwise, the price may return to 75.00 (Murray [8/8]).
    Technical indicators show ambiguous signals: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed upwards. MACD histogram is declining in the positive zone.
    Support levels: 76.56, 75.78, 75.00.
    Resistance levels: 78.12, 79.68, 80.47.

    Trading tips

    Buy positions may be opened above 78.12 with targets at 79.68, 80.47 and stop-loss at 77.80.
    Sell positions may be opened from 76.56 with targets at 75.78, 75.00 and stop-loss at 76.90.


  6. #1296
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Published on Friday, the May data from the US labor market proved to be strong. The number of Nonfarm Payrolls has grown stronger than forecasts from 159K to 223K. The average wage has expectedly increased by 2.7%, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.8%. On the one hand, the good state of the labor market helps raise the Fed's interest rate. However, the complication of trade relations with the EU leads to an increase in the uncertainty of the American economy, which means that the regulator may delay the tightening of monetary policy. James Bullard, the head of the FRB of St. Louis, said this on Friday.
    Since June 1, US have implied taxes on EU Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum. In reply, the will imply taxes on a number of US goods, and EU plans to initiate WTO proceedings. This week in Canada, the G7 leaders will meet to discuss the trade disputes. Beijing can refuse form earlier agreements if the US introduces new taxes on Chinese goods.

    Support and resistance

    The price returns to Murray main range, consolidating above 1.1718 (Murray [0/8]). In this case, the instrument can reach 1.1840 (Murray [1/8]), 1.1900 and 1.1962 (Murray [2/8], the upper border of Bollinger bands). Otherwise, the pair can return to 1.1540 (Murray [5/8], H4). Technical indicators are ambiguous. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. MACD decreases in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards, reaching the overbought zone.
    Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1900.
    Support levels: 1.1657, 1.1596, 1.1540.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened above 1.1718 and the midline of Bollinger bands (1.1760) with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1900 and stop loss 1.1710.
    Short positions can be opened below 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1596, 1.1540 and stop loss around of 1.1690.


  7. #1297
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

    On D1 chart, the price rose above the level of 109.37 ([6/8]) and tests the midline of Bollinger Bands near 109.70 area. Consolidation of the instrument above this level will give the prospect of growth to 110.93 ([7/8]) and 111.71 ([+2/8], H4). Otherwise, the price may resume decline to the levels of 108.20 ([1/8], H4) and 107.81 ([5/8]).
    Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram stopped declining but is still close to the zero line. Stochastic is pointing down but has approached the oversold zone, so a reverse and the formation of a sell signal are likely.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 109.37 ([6/8]), 108.20 ([1/8], H4), 107.81 ([5/8]).
    Resistance levels: 110.00 (weekly maximum), 110.93 ([7/8]), 111.71 ([+2/8], H4).

    Trading tips

    Short positions may be opened below 109.37 with targets at 108.20, 107.81 and the stop-loss at 109.70.
    Long positions may be opened above the level of 110.00 with targets at 110.93, 111.71 and stop-loss at 109.70.
    Implementation time: 5-7 days.


  8. #1298
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: correction may be long

    Current trend

    In June, the Australian dollar against the US one continues to recover after a significant fall in April and early May. The pair returned to the medium-term downward channel and has now reached the upper border of this trend.
    The main catalyst for this movement was the fall in the attractiveness of the overbought American currency: investors fix short positions, waiting for a longer upward correction. Moreover, strong economic growth data for Q1 were released in Australia, which gave serious support to AUD.
    This week, there will be no key releases for the US dollar, so one should not expect increased interest in the currency.

    Support and resistance

    The pair stopped at a strong resistance level of 0.7670, which is the upper border of the descending channel, which makes it difficult to pass this mark. On the other hand, a strong fundamental background in Australia and a decline in demand for USD can provide momentum for further growth with the possibility of the upward correction to the levels of 0.7700, 0.7800. From them, the instrument can go down to local minima: one should not expect a fall from the current level, but the overall trend remains descending.
    Technical indicators on W1 chart confirm the decline forecast in the medium term: MACD indicates the preservation of the high volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands are pointing downwards.
    Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7560, 0.7530, 0.7505, 0.7480, 0.7450, 0.7410.
    Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7670, 0.7700, 0.7735, 0.7770, 0.7800.

    Trading tips

    Short positions may be opened from levels of 0.7700, 0.7770, 0.7800 with targets at 0.7450, 0.7410 and stop-loss at 0.7870.


  9. #1299
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    The pair is influenced by contradictory factors. On the one hand, positive British Service, Manufacturing, and Construction PMI inspired the investors and gave hopes for reduction of BoE monetary stimulus. On the other hand, Brexit situation is incurring significant risks for the British economy. In general, business is preparing for hard times. Representatives of major European and British companies have warned Prime Minister Theresa May about a possible reduction in investment, which would cause a reduction in jobs number.
    The lack of a compromise upon Brexit in the British government worsens the situation. Recently, Theresa May proposed to leave the UK in the EU United Customs zone temporary, which would let avoid the physical borders in Ireland. However, this plan has raised objections from a number of ministers, including David Davis, Boris Johnson, and Liam Fox, who insisted that the UK's stay within the customs union should be limited to a specific unmovable deadline.

    Support and resistance

    Technically, the pair has been growing for two weeks but was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands. In the case of a breakdown below the level of 1.3366 (Murray [6/8]), a further decline to the level of 1.3300 (Murray [4/8]) is possible, which is confirmed by indicators: Stochastic reversed downwards, MACD decreases in the positive zone. The key "bullish" level is 1.3427 (Murray [0/8]). In case of the breakout, the price can grow to 1.3488 (Murray [+2/8]), 1.3540.
    Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3488.
    Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3300.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3366 with the target at 1.3300 and a stop loss around 1.3400.
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3488, 1.3540 and stop loss 1.3390.
    Implementation period: 3–5 days.


  10. #1300
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review

    Current trend

    This week, the pair rose to around 110.65 amid expectations of an interest rate increase by the Fed, the decision on which will be made today.
    It is expected that the regulator will raise the rate from 1.75% to 2.00%. Nevertheless, the main intrigue is how much more increases should be expected this year – one or two. Jerome Powell, the Fed's Head, can answer this question at today's press-conference. In conditions of steady growth of inflation, the basic level of which exceeds the target level of 2.0% for three months in a row, the aggressive increase in rates looks logical. However, a trade conflict with the EU and Canada can make the FOMC officials be more cautious.
    On Thursday, April data on industrial production in Japan will be published. It is expected that, on an annual basis, the figure will increase from 2.5% to 3.1%, which is unlikely to significantly strengthen the yen, as investors' attention will continue to focus on the results of the meeting of the American regulator.

    Support and resistance

    Currently, the price approaches the level of 110.93 (Murray [7/8]) and after its breakout can go to the level of 111.40 (the May high area). A breakdown of the midline of Bollinger Bands around 109.85 will give a prospect of a decline to 109.37 (Murray [6/8]) and 108.75. Technical indicators show growth. Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone.
    Support levels: 109.85, 109.37, 108.75.
    Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.40.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 110.93, 111.40 and stop-loss at 110.20.
    Short positions may be opened below the level of 109.85 with targets at 109.37, 108.75 and stop-loss at 110.10.


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