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  1. #1321
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general analysis


    Current trend

    On Friday, USD moved in different directions against CAD due to Q2 US GDP preliminary data release, which grew from 2.2% to 4.1%. Gross Domestic Product Price Index also exceeded forecasts, increasing from 2.0% to 3.2%. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures were worse than expected, rising by 2.0%.

    Today, traders should pay attention to US June Pending Home Sales release at 16.00 (GMT+2), the market expects moderate volatility.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands, the price range narrowed. MACD histogram is in the negative area, keeping the signal to the opening of short positions.

    Resistance levels: 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3160, 1.3200.
    Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3025, 1.3000.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3025 with the target at 1.2970. Stop loss is 1.3060.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3160 ​​and stop loss 1.3060.

    Implementation period: 1–3 days.


  2. #1322
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis


    XAU/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is about to test from above its longer MA.

    XAU/USD, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling, having bounced off its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 1215.0 (local lows), 1205.0 (July 2017 lows), 1185.0 (December 2013 lows).
    Resistance levels: 1237.0 (local highs), 1256.0 (local highs), 1260.0 (October 2017 lows).

    Trading tips

    The chances of an upward correction are increasing.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1237.0 with targets at 1256.0, 1260.0 and stop-loss at 1228.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1205.0 with the target at 1185.0 and stop-loss at 1215.0. Validity – 3-5 days.


  3. #1323
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: to new local lows

    Current trend

    GBP against USD is moving within a broad downwards channel, despite the July decline in volatility. The downward momentum significantly decreased due to a drop in investment interest in the overbought dollar. An additional catalyst for the pair's growth was weak data on key sectors of the US economy in the middle of last month. At the end of last trading week, the pair reached the upper border of the current downward trend at 1.3210 due to the British positive fundamental background, and dollar is now strengthening due to favorable data and the growth of demand before US key releases publications.

    At the end of this week US data on the labor market will be published, as well as Fed’s and BoE interest rates decisions, so high volatility of the instrument is expected.

    Support and resistance

    The pair remains in a downward trend. Technical indicators confirm the fall forecast. On the daily chart and higher, MACD keeps high volumes of short positions, and Bollinger bands are directed downward.

    Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3230, 1.3270, 1.3295.
    Support levels: 1.3110, 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2955, 1.2930, 1.2850, 1.2800.

    Trading tips

    It is relevant to increase the volumes of short positions from the current level with the targets at 1.2975, 1.2800 and stop loss 1.3250.


  4. #1324
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general review

    Current trend

    This week, CAD strengthened against USD due to the publication of strong data on GDP.

    In May, Canada's GDP grew by 0.5%, which was the most significant figure for the last year. GDP growth is explained by good weather, which led to an increase in retail sales (by 2.0% in May) and an increase in oil prices in the first half of 2018.

    At present, the Canadian economy is seriously dependent on the oil market, since the share of oil and gas production in the national GDP is more than 7% (the most significant figure since 1998). On Wednesday, after the publication of the EIA report, which recorded the growth of oil reserves in the US by 3.803M barrels to 408.74M barrels, CAD was under pressure, the pair began to grow and is currently trading at around 1.3025.

    Support and resistance

    Currently, the price is corrected upwards within the downtrend, and the possibility of further growth is confirmed by Stochastic, which is located at the oversold zone. However, one may speak about a serious increase in the price when it is fixed above 1.3061 (Murrey [3/8]). In this case, the next target of "bulls" will be 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]). If the downtrend continues, the targets of the "bears" will be 1.2939 (Murrey [2/8]), 1.2817 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.2695 (Murrey [0/8]).

    Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183.
    Support levels: 1.2939, 1.2817, 1.2695.

    Trading tips

    Sell positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.2939, 1.2817, 1.2695 and stop loss at 1.1360.
    Buy positions can be opened above 1.3061 with target at 1.3183 and stop loss at 1.3020.
    Implementation period: 3-5 days.


  5. #1325
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: growth of investment interest in USD

    Current trend

    NZD against USD cannot come out of the wide side channel. For more than a month the pair has been moving within the range of 0.6850-0.6715 due to a decrease in trading activity and an ambiguous fundamental background.

    Last week, strong US GDP data was published, but the labor market subsided, and the Fed did not go on to tighten monetary policy and raise rates. Despite this, USD gained additional demand, and the pair fell to a local minimum of 0.6725, having passed more than 100 points in a few days. At the end of the week, some of the losses were played out but the downward momentum persisted.

    At the moment, there are no important releases. At the end of the week RBNZ will publish a decision on the rates, and in the US there will be data on the labor market and major indices, special attention should be paid to inflation.

    Support and resistance

    The pair has slowed but remains in the long-term downward trend. It is possible that the approach to the lower border will be decisive: either the pair will break it down and go to new local lows, or continue to trade in narrowing consolidation. The consensus forecast indicates an increase in inflation in the US: this may give USD support in view of the increased likelihood of an increase in rates. However, the downward movement is more likely, which means that an increase in the volume of short positions at the current level or at the upper border of the side channel is expected.

    Technical indicators confirm the fall outlook: on D1 chart and above, MACD is already indicating the growth of volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands are still pointing down.

    Support levels: 0.6725, 0.6710, 0.6690, 0.6650, 0.6610, 0.6575, 0.6500.
    Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6790, 0.6830, 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6895.


    Trading tips

    Short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from the nearest resistance levels of 0.6770, 0.6790 with targets at 0.6650, 0.6575 and the stop loss at 0.6920.


  6. #1326
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. Ethereum: general review

    Current trend

    After a serious fall last week, the cryptocurrency market stabilized. For a few days, the price of Ether is near 406.25. Investors are waiting for new drivers.

    Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the NYSE, announced work on the creation of a global platform called Bakkt. Through it, ICE plans to deposit the digital assets, and companies using Bakkt will be able to accept payments in cryptocurrencies.

    Meanwhile, the reliability of digital assets continues to cause doubts. Last week, the SEC denied Winklevoss twins to create an ETF based on Bitcoin under the pretext that the currency is not sufficiently protected from manipulations. Studies of the The Wall Street Journal confirmed the regulator's concerns: there are organized groups of traders on the market that can significantly influence the prices of digital assets through coordinated purchases or sales. Such methods have long been banned in the traditional market, but continue to be operated on the cryptocurrency one.

    Support and resistance

    Technically, Ether continues to trade in the downward channel and in case of breakdown of the level of 406.25 (Murrey [1/8]) it can decrease to 375.00 (Murrey [0/8]) and 312.50 (Murrey [-2/8]). However, Stochastics leaving the oversold zone suggests the possibility of an upward correction. The key for "bulls" is the level of 437.50 (Murrey [1/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands) above the upper border of the descending channel. If it's broken out, targets for growth will be 500.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 531.25 (Murrey [5/8]).

    Support levels: 406.25, 375.00, 312.50.
    Resistance levels: 437.50, 500.00, 531.25.

    Trading tips

    Long positions may be opened above 437.50 with the target at 500.00 and stop loss at 410.00.

    Short positions may be opened from 395.00 with targets at 375.00, 312.50 and stop loss at 410.00.

    Implementation time: 3-5 days.


  7. #1327
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis

    FTSE, D1

    On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is trying to turn down slightly below the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is growing, having broken out its longer MA.

    FTSE, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA, having failed the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is falling, having broken down its longer MA.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 7710.0 (local lows), 7676.0 (local lows), 7650.0 (local lows).
    Resistance levels: 7738.0 (local highs), 7790.0 (June highs), 7870.0 (local highs).

    Trading tips

    The price has retested its strong resistance near 7790.0. There is a chance of a downward correction.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 7710.0 with targets at 7676.0, 7650.0 and stop-loss at 7738.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 7790.0 with the target at 7870.0 and stop-loss at 7745.0. Validity – 3-5 days.


  8. #1328
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. Cryptocurrency Market Review

    This week, the cryptocurrency market continued to correct downwards amid the new decisions of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On Thursday, there was an attempt to growth, but in general the trend remains descending. At present, Bitcoin is traded around 6450.00 (–8.3%), Ethereum has fallen to 360.00 (–12.2%), Ripple declined to 0.3200 (–24.1%), Bitcoin Cash fell to the level of 590.00 (–20.1%), and Litecoin decreased to 61.26 (–21.0%).

    The SEC and the uncertainty surrounding the ETF solution continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency market. This week, the regulator postponed to the end of September consideration of the issue of allowing the VanEck and SolidX companies to create a Bitcoin ETF, citing the need for a more thorough analysis of the applications submitted. According to experts, out of 10 companies that applied to the SEC for the creation of ETF, VanEck and SolidX had the greatest chance of obtaining a permit, since they closely cooperate with the Cboe exchange, where they planned to place shares. Therefore, investors were disappointed by the decision of the regulator, hoping for an early solution of the issue. On the other hand, the VanEck and SolidX trust application was not declined immediately, as was the case with the Winklevoss brothers' request a week earlier. Probably, there is a fight of opinions in the SEC, and there is still a chance to receive approval of the application for the trust. Two approvals are needed to introduce a new investment product to the market from the SEC: one is needed for the ETF creation and another one is needed for the right to trade its shares. The second permit should be obtained by Cboe, but consideration of its application was postponed by the SEC to the end of September.

    Among other news of the market there is the intention of the company Opera Ltd. to launch a cryptocurrency wallet in the new version of the browser for the PC, because a similar product in Opera for Android was positively received by the cryptocurrency community. The research of the Wall Street Journal which confirmed the vulnerability of the digital assets market for fraud is also worth attention. The magazine found that there are organized groups of traders at the market that can significantly influence the prices of digital assets through simultaneous coordinated purchases or sales of currencies.

    In general, the trend towards a decrease remains in the cryptocurrency market. Next week, prices may continue the downward movement.

  9. #1329
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

    Current trend

    Today, oil is trading around ​​67.00, Friday's growth has stopped.

    The traders are focused on the US anti-Iran sanctions. At the end of last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that there is no meeting with US officials planned in the near future, including the UN General Assembly to be held next month. The entry into force of US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector is scheduled for November 5. Refusal of dialogue means a continuation of the pressure of the USA on the importer countries to make them refuse of the Iranian oil? Which failed with China and Russia, but France and South Korea stopped cooperating with the Islamic Republic.

    Last year, Iran exported about 2.1 million barrels of oil per day. Probably, the flow will not be completely blocked, however, the US administration expects to reduce supplies by 0.7–1.0 million barrels per day.

    Support and resistance

    At present, the key "bullish" level is 67.18 (Murrey [6/8]). In case of breakout, the price may rise to the levels of 67.96 (Murrey [7/8]) and 68.75 (Murrey [8/8]). However, according to the reversal of the Bollinger Bands and Stochastic downwards, the price is more likely to fall to 65.62 (Murrey [4/8]) and 64.84 (Murrey [3/8]) after the breakdown of the level of 66.40 in the mid-range of Bollinger bands.

    Resistance levels: 67.18, 67.96, 68.75.
    Support levels: 66.40, 65.62, 64.84.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened below the level of 66.40 with the targets at 65.62, 64.84 and stop loss 66.80.

    Long positions can be opened above the level of 67.18 with the targets at 67.96, 68.75 and stop loss around ​​66.90.

    Implementation period: 3–5 days.


  10. #1330
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: instrument consolidates

    Current trend

    The US Dollar fell against the Canadian currency on Monday, 13 August, after renewing local highs since 24 July.

    As there is a lack of significant economic releases, USD moves due to technical factors. It is supported by strong July US inflation data. Instead of the expected growth, the consumer price index remained at the same level of 2.9%, but the base consumer price index rose from 2.3% to 2.4%. Investors are confident that the regulator will raise the interest rate twice more. Most likely, this will happen at the September and December Fed’s meetings.

    The key US data will be released on Wednesday, when the July data on retail sales and industrial production will be published. It is forecasted that the volume of retail sales may fall from 0.5% to 0.3%, and the index of industrial production can decrease from 0.6% to 0.3%. The implementation of forecasts can affect the USD negatively.

    Support and resistance

    The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a gradual reverse upwards. The price range is widening but cannot cope with high volatility on the market yet. The MACD is growing and keeping a quite strong buy signal (the histogram remains above the signal line). The Stochastic is growing but is approaching its maximum levels, suggesting the USD is overbought.

    Current indicators’ readings do not contradict further Bullish trend development.

    Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3061, 1.3000, 1.2961, 1.2900.
    Resistance levels: 1.3156, 1.3200, 1.3258, 1.3300.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3156 with targets at 1.3230, 1.3258 and stop-loss at 1.3100. Validity – 2-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.3150. Validity – 2-3 days.


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