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  1. #1541
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-09 08:23 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed ambiguous trading against USD on Thursday. Before the opening of the American session, the euro was trading upwards, receiving support from good statistics from China. In addition, investors continue to evaluate the prospects for a further reduction in the interest rate by the Fed amid a sharp deterioration in US-China trade relations and the CNY devaluation. Chinese data indicated an increase in exports of 3.3% YoY in July after a decline of 1.3% YoY in June. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –2.0% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 5.6% YoY after a decrease of 7.3% YoY. All this led to a slower decrease in the surplus of the trade balance from 50.98 to 45.06 billion dollars with a forecast of a decrease to 40.00 billion.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed a slight decrease against the US dollar on Thursday. In the absence of significant macroeconomic releases, investors continued to take a lead from previous factors. The main "bearish" driver for the instrument remains the prospect of a "tough" Brexit, which could cause significant harm to the UK economy. Already, investors fear a sharp decline in UK trade with EU countries, which could lead to food shortages in the country. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a slight growth. The focus of investors is on a large block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In particular, a preliminary estimate of UK GDP for the Q2 2019 is expected to be released.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar rose significantly against the US currency on Thursday, continuing the development of the correctional impulse formed the day before. The instrument was supported by Chinese trade statistics, which, despite the continuing tensions between the US and China, showed an increase in July. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are focused on the speech of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe and the comments of the Australian regulator on monetary policy. No concrete hints were expected from Lowe's speech on further easing of monetary policy, so the reaction of the market to it was very restrained. The head of the RBA noted the insufficiently rapid increase in inflation in the country, as well as the growth of external economic risks, primarily due to the deterioration of trade relations between China and the United States.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar continues a moderate decline against the Japanese yen, returning to local lows, updated on August 7. The development of the "bearish" trend is facilitated by the growth of the Japanese currency against the backdrop of worsening trade relations between the US and China and a decline in interest in risk. During today's Asian session, Japanese macroeconomic statistics provides little support for the yen. According to preliminary estimates, Japan's GDP in Q2 2019 showed an increase of 0.4% QoQ after an increase of 0.6% QoQ in the previous quarter. Investors had expected a slowdown to +0.1% QoQ. Annual GDP data reflected a slowdown from +2.2% YoY to +1.8% YoY, which also turned out to be better than market expectations.

    Oil

    Oil quotes rose slightly on Thursday, receiving support from the expectation of a decrease in production volumes amid a prolonged decline in prices. In addition, the instrument was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from China, which signals a slight improvement in global demand, despite growing pressure from the US. The market also reacted positively to statements by Saudi Arabia, which, in addition to the current OPEC+ agreement, calls on all oil exporters to discuss an additional reduction in oil prices in order to maintain a balance of supply and demand in the market. Today, investors are waiting for Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report.

  2. #1542
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Bitcoin: technical analysis
    2019-08-12 09:10 (GMT+2) Bitcoin
    Current trend

    Last week, the price of Bitcoin repeatedly tested the level of 12000.00 but failed to consolidate above it and was corrected to the level of 11250.00 (Murrey [5/8]). Consolidation below it will let the correction to develop to the levels of 10625.00 (the middle line of Bollinger bands, Murrey [2/8] H4) and 10000.00 (Murrey [4/8]). Otherwise, the price may grow to the levels of 12500.00 (Murrey [6/8]) and 13125.00 (Murrey [5/8] H4).

    Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, confirming the relevance of the upward trend. The MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Stochastic is directed downwards but approaches the oversold zone, which does not exclude a limited correction. In general, in the near future, the instrument may resume its growth from current levels or the middle line of Bollinger Bands (10625.00).

    Support and resistance

    Resistance levels: 12000.00, 12500.00, 13125.00, 13750.00.
    Support levels: 11250.00, 10625.00, 10000.00.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 11500.00 or 10625.00 with the targets at 12500.00, 13125.00 and stop loss 10950.00 and 10300.00, respectively.
    Short positions can be opened below the level of 10625.00 with the targets at 10000.00, 9375.00 and stop loss 11000.00.

    Implementation period: 45 days.

  3. #1543
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    XAU/USD: technical analysis
    2019-08-13 10:06 (GMT+2) Gold
    XAU/USD, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is about to test its strong resistance region.

    XAU/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is approaching its strong resistance.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 1468.0 (local lows), 1440.0 (June highs), 1399.0 (local lows).
    Resistance levels: 1532.0 (September 2011 lows), 1560.0 (March 2013 lows), 1584.0 (August 2012 lows).

    Trading tips

    The price is about to test its strong resistance near 1532.0. There is a chance of a short-term downward correction.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1532.0 with targets at 1560.0, 1584.0 and stop-loss at 1510.0. Validity 3-5 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1399.0 with the target at 1365.0 and stop-loss at 1412.0. Validity 3-5 days.

  4. #1544
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    XAG/USD: technical analysis
    2019-08-14 09:42 (GMT+2) Silver
    XAG/USD, H4

    On a 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading within a sideways channel formed by the boundaries of Bollinger bands. The pair was corrected to the midline of the indicator, the formation of a side trend continues. The MACD histogram is in the positive area, keeping a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the oscillator lines are reversing upwards.

    XAG/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the uptrend is still in force. The instrument is trading near the upper border of Bollinger bands, the indicator cloud is narrowing. The MACD histogram is in the positive area, while keeping a confident signal to open buy orders. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the oscillator lines are reversing downwards from the border with the overbought zone.

    Key levels

    Resistance levels: 16.98, 17.10, 17.24, 17.37, 17.51.
    Support levels: 16.81, 16.67, 16.57, 16.49, 16.35, 16.25, 16.11, 15.92.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 17.37 and stop loss 16.67.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.65 with the target at 16.25. Stop loss 16.85.
    Implementation period: 13 days.

  5. #1545
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Brent Crude Oil: general analysis
    2019-08-16 08:33 (GMT+2) Brent
    Current trend

    Oil prices are falling. One of the reasons for the fall of "black gold" is associated with a slowdown in the global economy. Thus, statistics from China reflected an unexpected record drop in industrial production to 4.8% against the forecast of 5.8%, the last time such data were recorded 17 years ago. Investors were also disappointed with the German GDP, which has declined in the second quarter.

    The second factor, which also negatively affected quotes, was the publication of data on commercial US oil reserves, which grew by 1.58 million barrels against the forecast of 2.78 million barrels. As for the total oil production, it remained at the same level of 12.3 million barrels per day. If the trend continues, it is possible that OPEC may intervene in order to balance the market by reducing energy production.

    Today, traders will focus on data on the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes.

    Support and resistance

    Stochastic is around 23 points and does not give signals for opening positions.
    Resistance levels: 59.55, 61.40.
    Support levels: 57.71, 56.10.

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