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  1. #1541
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-09 08:23 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed ambiguous trading against USD on Thursday. Before the opening of the American session, the euro was trading upwards, receiving support from good statistics from China. In addition, investors continue to evaluate the prospects for a further reduction in the interest rate by the Fed amid a sharp deterioration in US-China trade relations and the CNY devaluation. Chinese data indicated an increase in exports of 3.3% YoY in July after a decline of 1.3% YoY in June. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –2.0% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 5.6% YoY after a decrease of 7.3% YoY. All this led to a slower decrease in the surplus of the trade balance from 50.98 to 45.06 billion dollars with a forecast of a decrease to 40.00 billion.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed a slight decrease against the US dollar on Thursday. In the absence of significant macroeconomic releases, investors continued to take a lead from previous factors. The main "bearish" driver for the instrument remains the prospect of a "tough" Brexit, which could cause significant harm to the UK economy. Already, investors fear a sharp decline in UK trade with EU countries, which could lead to food shortages in the country. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a slight growth. The focus of investors is on a large block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In particular, a preliminary estimate of UK GDP for the Q2 2019 is expected to be released.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar rose significantly against the US currency on Thursday, continuing the development of the correctional impulse formed the day before. The instrument was supported by Chinese trade statistics, which, despite the continuing tensions between the US and China, showed an increase in July. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are focused on the speech of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe and the comments of the Australian regulator on monetary policy. No concrete hints were expected from Lowe's speech on further easing of monetary policy, so the reaction of the market to it was very restrained. The head of the RBA noted the insufficiently rapid increase in inflation in the country, as well as the growth of external economic risks, primarily due to the deterioration of trade relations between China and the United States.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar continues a moderate decline against the Japanese yen, returning to local lows, updated on August 7. The development of the "bearish" trend is facilitated by the growth of the Japanese currency against the backdrop of worsening trade relations between the US and China and a decline in interest in risk. During today's Asian session, Japanese macroeconomic statistics provides little support for the yen. According to preliminary estimates, Japan's GDP in Q2 2019 showed an increase of 0.4% QoQ after an increase of 0.6% QoQ in the previous quarter. Investors had expected a slowdown to +0.1% QoQ. Annual GDP data reflected a slowdown from +2.2% YoY to +1.8% YoY, which also turned out to be better than market expectations.

    Oil

    Oil quotes rose slightly on Thursday, receiving support from the expectation of a decrease in production volumes amid a prolonged decline in prices. In addition, the instrument was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from China, which signals a slight improvement in global demand, despite growing pressure from the US. The market also reacted positively to statements by Saudi Arabia, which, in addition to the current OPEC+ agreement, calls on all oil exporters to discuss an additional reduction in oil prices in order to maintain a balance of supply and demand in the market. Today, investors are waiting for Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report.

  2. #1542
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Bitcoin: technical analysis
    2019-08-12 09:10 (GMT+2) Bitcoin
    Current trend

    Last week, the price of Bitcoin repeatedly tested the level of 12000.00 but failed to consolidate above it and was corrected to the level of 11250.00 (Murrey [5/8]). Consolidation below it will let the correction to develop to the levels of 10625.00 (the middle line of Bollinger bands, Murrey [2/8] H4) and 10000.00 (Murrey [4/8]). Otherwise, the price may grow to the levels of 12500.00 (Murrey [6/8]) and 13125.00 (Murrey [5/8] H4).

    Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, confirming the relevance of the upward trend. The MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Stochastic is directed downwards but approaches the oversold zone, which does not exclude a limited correction. In general, in the near future, the instrument may resume its growth from current levels or the middle line of Bollinger Bands (10625.00).

    Support and resistance

    Resistance levels: 12000.00, 12500.00, 13125.00, 13750.00.
    Support levels: 11250.00, 10625.00, 10000.00.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 11500.00 or 10625.00 with the targets at 12500.00, 13125.00 and stop loss 10950.00 and 10300.00, respectively.
    Short positions can be opened below the level of 10625.00 with the targets at 10000.00, 9375.00 and stop loss 11000.00.

    Implementation period: 4–5 days.

  3. #1543
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    XAU/USD: technical analysis
    2019-08-13 10:06 (GMT+2) Gold
    XAU/USD, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is about to test its strong resistance region.

    XAU/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is approaching its strong resistance.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 1468.0 (local lows), 1440.0 (June highs), 1399.0 (local lows).
    Resistance levels: 1532.0 (September 2011 lows), 1560.0 (March 2013 lows), 1584.0 (August 2012 lows).

    Trading tips

    The price is about to test its strong resistance near 1532.0. There is a chance of a short-term downward correction.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1532.0 with targets at 1560.0, 1584.0 and stop-loss at 1510.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1399.0 with the target at 1365.0 and stop-loss at 1412.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

  4. #1544
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    XAG/USD: technical analysis
    2019-08-14 09:42 (GMT+2) Silver
    XAG/USD, H4

    On a 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading within a sideways channel formed by the boundaries of Bollinger bands. The pair was corrected to the midline of the indicator, the formation of a side trend continues. The MACD histogram is in the positive area, keeping a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the oscillator lines are reversing upwards.

    XAG/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the uptrend is still in force. The instrument is trading near the upper border of Bollinger bands, the indicator cloud is narrowing. The MACD histogram is in the positive area, while keeping a confident signal to open buy orders. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the oscillator lines are reversing downwards from the border with the overbought zone.

    Key levels

    Resistance levels: 16.98, 17.10, 17.24, 17.37, 17.51.
    Support levels: 16.81, 16.67, 16.57, 16.49, 16.35, 16.25, 16.11, 15.92.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 17.37 and stop loss 16.67.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.65 with the target at 16.25. Stop loss 16.85.
    Implementation period: 1–3 days.

  5. #1545
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    Brent Crude Oil: general analysis
    2019-08-16 08:33 (GMT+2) Brent
    Current trend

    Oil prices are falling. One of the reasons for the fall of "black gold" is associated with a slowdown in the global economy. Thus, statistics from China reflected an unexpected record drop in industrial production to 4.8% against the forecast of 5.8%, the last time such data were recorded 17 years ago. Investors were also disappointed with the German GDP, which has declined in the second quarter.

    The second factor, which also negatively affected quotes, was the publication of data on commercial US oil reserves, which grew by 1.58 million barrels against the forecast of –2.78 million barrels. As for the total oil production, it remained at the same level of 12.3 million barrels per day. If the trend continues, it is possible that OPEC may intervene in order to balance the market by reducing energy production.

    Today, traders will focus on data on the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes.

    Support and resistance

    Stochastic is around 23 points and does not give signals for opening positions.
    Resistance levels: 59.55, 61.40.
    Support levels: 57.71, 56.10.

  6. #1546
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-19 08:27 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro closed last week with a steady decline against the US dollar, retreating to new local lows of August 2. The European currency remains pressured amid the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. In addition, investors responded positively to Donald Trump’s recent statements that the US-China trade conflict could still end with the signing of a final agreement. Published on August 16, macroeconomic statistics from the United States was ambiguous. Investors were optimistic about the dynamics in the number of building permits, which reflected an increase of 8.4% MoM in July after a decrease of 5.2% MoM last month. However, the changes in the number of new residential houses in July fell by 4.0% MoM after a decrease of 1.8% MoM last month. The dollar was also pressured by The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. According to preliminary estimates, the index fell from 98.4 to 92.1 points with a forecast of 97.2 points.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound corrected against the US dollar late last week, updating local highs of August 8th. The pound was supported by technical correction factors, while the situation around Brexit continues to put pressure on GBP. UK citizens may face food and drug shortages during the first few months after the UK leaves the EU without an agreement. Meanwhile, the government of Boris Johnson still does not have any noticeable progress on the issue of concluding an agreement, so there is growing talk about a possible vote of no confidence. On the one hand, this supports the position of the British currency, since there is a real chance to avoid the "tough" Brexit. On the other hand, the growth of political competition threatens with a new crisis, which will be extremely painful for the prospects of the British economy in the face of growing uncertainty in world markets.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed uncertain growth against the US one at the end of last week, recovering slightly after a noticeable decline on August 14. The instrument was supported by technical correction factors, as well as by weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August fell from 98.4 to 92.1 points with a forecast of 97.2 points. Today, the instrument continues the previous trend. At the beginning of a new week, there are few interesting macroeconomic statistics on the market, so investors expect Tuesday when the minutes of the last RBA meeting will be published.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on August 16, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. It is curious that the growth of the instrument proceeded against the background of the publication of ambiguous US macroeconomic statistics, which, in particular, indicated a drop in consumer confidence in August. Today, the dollar maintains a weak "bullish" mood. The yen is pressured by weak data on the dynamics of the trade balance. In July, the balance reached a deficit of 249.6 billion Japanese yen, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 200.0 billion. Japanese exports in July fell by 1.6% YoY after a decline of 6.6% YoY last month. Imports for the same period declined by 1.2% YoY after declining by 5.2% YoY.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on Friday, interrupting the development of the "bearish" impulse that formed on August 14. Moderate support for quotes was provided by favorable data on the dynamics of retail sales in the USA, as well as rather optimistic comments by Donald Trump regarding the prospects for concluding a trade agreement between the USA and China. Negative forecasts from OPEC, as well as the published report by Baker Hughes, which reflected the growth of active oil platforms in the USA from 764 to 770 units, restrained more confident price increase.

  7. #1547
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-20 08:24 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Monday but returned to growth today. Strengthening of the instrument is largely technical since the macroeconomic background particularly didn't change. The consumer price index in the Eurozone in July showed a decline of 0.5% MoM after rising by 0.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a decline by 0.4% MoM. YoY, the index growth slowed down from 1.3% to 1.0%, which also turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 1.1%. On Tuesday, investors are focused on a block of statistics on industrial inflation in Germany for July and the dynamics of production in the Eurozone's construction sector in June.

    GBP/USD

    At the beginning of the new week, the British pound returned to decline against the US dollar as fears of a recession in the US economy began to gradually fade. Recall that the market reacted quite sharply to the reversal of the yield curve of US treasury bonds, which is usually considered the first sign of the beginning of a recession. Nevertheless, the Fed representatives and President Donald Trump personally managed to calm the markets, as a result of which the yield curve returned to its "normal" form. In turn, pressure on the pound continues to increase as the Brexit deadline approaches. Investors fear that the British economy will face a shortage of food, medicines, and energy in the first few months after leaving the EU without a deal.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar begins a new week with lateral dynamics against the US currency. A weak decline on August 19 gave way to uncertain growth today. Moderate support for the Australian dollar is provided by the published minutes of the RBA meeting of August 6, given that the meeting itself was neutral. As before, the regulator is ready to take additional measures to stimulate the economy but prefers to act with caution. A significant source of uncertainty in the actions of the RBA remains the growth of external tension, in particular, emanating from the US-China conflict. As for internal factors, the Australian regulator relies on positive dynamics in the labor market. According to the Central Bank, inflation will remain slightly below 2% during 2020 and will exceed this psychological level only in 2021.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar is developing an upward trend against the Japanese yen, approaching local highs of August 13 and 15. The "bullish" sentiment on the instrument was strengthened by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan, published on Monday. In addition, investors calmed somewhat regarding the onset of the recession in the US economy. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. On Tuesday, the macroeconomic background remains fairly neutral, so a significant increase in activity should not be expected so far.

    Oil

    At the beginning of the new week, oil prices rose, having received support due to the aggravation of the conflict in the Middle East. The media got information that one of the Saudi oil fields was attacked by the Yemenite Hussites, although later Saudi Arabia stated that this incident did not affect the dynamics of oil production. In turn, the market welcomed the release of the Iranian oil tanker, which was captured by Gibraltar in July. On August 20, investors are awaiting the publication of an API report on oil reserves for the week of August 16. The previous report reflected growth in stocks by 3.7 million barrels.

  8. #1548
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-22 08:28 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on August 21, continuing the development of a flat trend in the short term. Pressure on the European currency was exerted by news of possible aggravation of the US-China trade relations. Donald Trump previously thought about the possibility of introducing import duties on European goods, but the US Presidential Administration then refused this in the face of uncertain relations with China. This time, Trump proposed introducing duties on European cars. Another negative factor for the euro was the resignation of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, which threatens another political crisis in the country. Recall that Italy is periodically criticized by the EU because it does not fit into its budget deficit norms (which is fraught with penalties). Today, the euro is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. Investors are focused on a block of statistics on business activity in Europe for August. The minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy are also expected to be published.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound weakened against the US dollar on Wednesday, offsetting the uncertain growth of the instrument the day before. The growth of the British currency is restrained by the problems around Brexit, which continue to worry the markets. In the near future, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to hold a series of meetings with European leaders in order to create a coalition that would help him convince the European Commission to reconsider a number of issues in the current agreement. The backstop clause on the Irish border is the cornerstone in the agreement. Additional pressure on the pound on Wednesday was provided by macroeconomic publications from the UK. The volume of net public sector borrowing in July fell by −1.917 billion pounds, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of −2.650 billion.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics on Wednesday, but today returned to an active decline. AUD is pressured by published macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Commonwealth Bank’s Services PMI fell in August from 52.3 to 49.2 points, with an expected decline to 51.8 points. The composite index fell from 52.1 to 49.5 points, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts of 51.5 points. The Manufacturing PMI over the same period decreased from 51.6 to 51.3 points (forecast 51.0 points). The US currency was supported by data on the dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market. According to data for July, sales grew by 2.5% MoM against a decline of 1.3% MoM last month.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on August 21, having received support from good macroeconomic statistics on sales in the secondary housing market. The published minutes of the July meeting of the US Fed were mixed, and, as analysts estimate, are not a "bullish" factor for the dollar. Investors were confused by the big disagreements within the FOMC. Some participants suggested reducing the rate immediately by 50 basis points, while others advocated its preservation at the current level. Today, the pair is trading in a downtrend, ignoring weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in August grew from 49.4 to 49.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the expectations of 49.8 points. The activity index in all industries collapsed in June by 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM last month (with a forecast of −0.7% MoM).

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a slight increase on Wednesday. Quotes were supported by a published report from the US Department of Energy. Over the week of August 16, crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 437.8 million, which was better than market expectations. At the same time, gasoline inventories rose again by 312K barrels, while investors expected a reduction of 200K. The volume of oil production in the United States did not change and amounted to 12.300 million barrels per day.

  9. #1549
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-23 08:25 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on August 22, closing with a slight "bearish" advantage. The European currency was supported by published macroeconomic data on business activity. The Markit Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in August rose from 46.5 to 47.0 points against the forecast of a decrease to 46.2 points. Markit Services PMI for the same period increased from 53.2 to 53.4 points, which is also above forecasts of 53.0 points. The composite Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 51.5 to 51.8 points (forecast 51.2 points). Today, the euro is trading in a downtrend. Investors are waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. Powell is expected to comment on future monetary policy plans.

    GBP/USD

    The pound has appreciably strengthened against the US dollar on Thursday, but today again returned to decline. Strong support for the British currency was provided by the comments of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who recalled that there is time until the end of October to conclude a deal between the UK and the EU. Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed a tougher stance, emphasizing that the EU does not intend to revise the provision on the backstop of the Irish border. He believes that only minor changes are possible in the text of the final agreement. Additional pressure on the pound on Thursday was put by the published CBI report on retail. Sales in August fell by 49% MoM to their lowest levels since December 2008. Analysts had expected a decline of only 11%.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar returned to active decline against the US dollar on August 22, amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics on business activity from Australia by Commonwealth Bank. American data on business activity also turned out to be worse than market expectations, however, this did not significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. The Markit Manufacturing PMI index in the US fell from 50.4 to 49.9 points, while analysts expected growth to 50.5 points. The Services PMI, according to preliminary estimates, fell from 53.0 to 50.9 points with a forecast of 52.8 points. The composite business activity index over the same period decreased from 52.6 to 50.9 points (forecast 51.7 points).

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on August 22, leveling the slight growth the day before. On Thursday, the macroeconomic background remained negative for both the yen and the dollar. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in August grew from 49.4 to 49.5 points with the forecast of 49.8 points. The activity index in all industries dropped in June by 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.5% in May. The US data reflected a sharp decline in the composite PMI from 52.6 to 50.9 points. Today, the yen is trading with moderate growth. Investors analyze macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation from Japan and expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. The national consumer price index in July slowed down from 0.7% to 0.5% YoY, which coincided with analysts' forecasts.

    Oil

    Oil prices fell moderately on Thursday, responding to worsening forecasts for global economic growth. A more confident decline in quotes was hampered by the previously published EIA report, which reflected a strong decline in oil reserves for the week of August 16. On Friday, investors expect the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak in Jackson Hole. Powell is expected to comment on the prospects for further interest rate cuts in the USA. Given the ongoing pressure on the Fed from President Donald Trump, it is likely that Powell will try to carefully hint at possible timing and ways to support the economy. In the evening, market participants are awaiting the Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the US.

  10. #1550
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-26 08:34 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    Euro rose against US dollar on Friday, returning to the local highs of August 15. The instrument grew sharply due to the rapid weakening of the US currency against the background of the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell noted that the regulator is ready to further reduce the interest rate if the economic situation so requires. According to him, the trade war with China and the threat of starting one with the EU significantly complicate the development of long-term scenarios for the Fed, as well as contribute to a further slowdown in the global economy. Immediately after Powell’s speech, Donald Trump attacked the Fed with criticism on Twitter, accusing the regulator of inaction. During the Asian session on August 26, the instrument is expected to correct. Investors expect publication of statistics from Germany on the dynamics of business sentiment in August.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound closed last week with moderate growth, updating the local highs of July 29. The instrument was supported by not the strongest positions in the American currency, which weakened against the background of the slurred speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole. USD was also under pressure from macroeconomic statistics on new home sales in the US. In July, the index declined by 12.8% MoM after growing by 20.9% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to appear, but counted on only –0.2% MoM decline. The speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at the symposium was neutral. Carney ignored monetary policy issues and concentrated on finding a replacement for the dollar as a global reserve currency.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar remains under pressure and shows mainly negative dynamics against the US currency. The growth of the "bearish" sentiment is due to the further aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Beijing said on Friday that it would introduce new USD 75 billion import duties on US goods in response to similar measures by the United States (new US duties will be imposed on September 1). In addition, China intends to introduce import duties on US cars in the amount of 25%.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Friday, reacting to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. Powell signaled that the regulator is ready for further stimulation measures if the situation in the economy so requires. After the symposium ended, the Fed action was heavily criticized by Donald Trump on Twitter. Additional support for the yen on Friday was provided by China's announcement of its intention to introduce reciprocal import duties on US goods in the amount of USD 75 billion from September 1. During the Asian session on August 26, the instrument shows corrective growth, opening with a negative gap. With the opening of the American session, statistics on the dynamics of orders for durable goods in the US for July are expected to be released.

    Oil

    Oil prices fell on Friday, continuing the development of an uncertain "bearish" impulse formed the day before. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the aggravation of fears regarding a further slowdown in global economic growth. In particular, on Friday, China announced the introduction of reciprocal import duties on US goods in the amount of USD 75 billion, which could significantly postpone the possible signing of a trade agreement between the countries. Moderate support for the instrument on Friday was provided by Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. During the week as of August 23, their number decreased by 16 units to 754 units. The previous report indicated an increase by 4 drilling rigs. During the Asian session on August 26, oil quotes showed moderate growth, following the general market trend.

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