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  1. #1561
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-11 08:43 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed ambiguous dynamics paired with the US dollar on Tuesday, closing with almost zero result. Investors remained focused on the prospects for US-Chinese trade negotiations. The market was supported by statements by US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, who noted that the parties are close to forming the fundamental points of the agreement in the field of intellectual property protection in the USA. In turn, China may increase the volume of orders for American agricultural machinery and products in order to achieve a number of concessions from the United States, in particular, delaying the introduction of new high import duties. Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the expectation of the ECB meeting, which will be held this Thursday. Investors expect rather sharp steps from the regulator aimed at further easing of monetary policy.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed flat dynamics against the US dollar on Tuesday. Investors were focused on the statistics on the UK labor market. Average Earnings ex Bonus in July slowed down from +3.9% 3MoY to +3.8% 3MoY, which coincided with the forecasts. Average Earnings Index + Bonus for the same period increased from 3.8% 3MoY to 4.0% 3m / g. The Unemployment Rate in July for 3 months fell from 3.9% to 3.8%, although analysts did not expect any changes. Claimant Change in August increased from 19.8K to 28.2K. Thus, investors were somewhat reassured regarding a possible recession in the British economy. Nevertheless, despite the very decisive actions of the British Parliament, the threat of a hard Brexit still remains. The Parliament rejected the bill on holding of early elections, but soon it will have to go on an extraordinary recess until mid-October.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Tuesday, closing near the levels of the beginning of the afternoon session. The reason for the emergence of ambiguous trading was the correctional sentiment in favor of the US dollar. Additional pressure on the instrument was provided by weak data from Australia. NAB Business Confidence in August fell from 4 to 1 point. NAB Business Survey for the same period receded from 2 to 1 point. During today's Asian session, the instrument again shows steady growth. Statistics published in Australia turned out to be negative, but did not affect the instrument significantly. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in September showed a decline of 1.7% YoY after rising by 3.6% YoY last month.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar continues to grow steadily against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of August 1. Positive dynamics in the instrument proceeds against the backdrop of increased interest in risk, despite persisting factors of uncertainty in the market. Statistics from Japan published the day before puts pressure on the yen. Machine Tool Orders in August showed a decrease of 37.1% YoY after a decrease of 33.0% YoY. During today's Asian session, moderate support for the yen is provided by BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions index. In Q3 2019, the index fell by only 0.2 points after a decrease of 10.4 points in the previous quarter.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed moderate growth on Tuesday, receiving support from the statements of the new Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who noted that the OPEC+ alliance will exist in the long term, and the current agreement on limiting oil production is likely to be extended. Nevertheless, the instrument failed to consolidate at new highs, and by the time the afternoon session closed, sales were prevailing in the market. However, the development of the "bearish" sentiment could not be stopped by API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. For the week as of September 6, the indicator dropped by 7.200 million barrels after an increase of 0.401 million barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Inventories.

  2. #1562
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-12 08:46 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    European currency showed a steady decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local lows of September 4. Investors corrected their open long positions on EUR before the ECB meeting on monetary policy. It is expected that the European regulator can go for an additional reduction in the deposit rate from –0.4% to –0.5% and keep the key rate at zero level. In addition, the ECB is expected to take other steps aimed at stimulating the European economy. In particular, the head of regulator Mario Draghi previously actively discussed the possibility of resuming the quantitative easing program. The ECB activities are likely to affect the decisions of other regulators. In particular, the Fed and the Bank of England are expected to hold meetings next week.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound is showing ambiguous dynamics paired with the US currency, consolidating near its local highs, updated at the beginning of the week. Investors are still focused on the Brexit situation. The day before, it became known that Scottish appeal court found that Boris Johnson suspended the Parliament unlawfully. The government, in turn, noted that they were disappointed with such a court decision and would appeal it to the Supreme Court. During today's Asian session, the RICS Housing Price Index provides some support for the instrument. In August, the indicator fell by 4% MoM after a decline of 9% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a significantly sharper decline of 11% MoM.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar closed trading on Wednesday with ambiguous dynamics against the US currency. The instrument was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in September showed a decline of 1.7% after rising by 3.6% last month. At the same time, American statistics came out better than the forecasts. The Core PPI in August showed an increase of 0.3% MoM after a decrease of 0.1% MoM in July. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated from +2.1% YoY to +2.3% YoY, while analysts expected +2.2% YoY. MBA Mortgage Applications for the week as of September 6 strengthened by 2.0% after a decrease of 3.1% over the past period. During today's Asian session, the Australian dollar is showing strong growth, updating local highs from July 31. Support for the instrument is provided by Donald Trump's decision to postpone the introduction of regular import duties on Chinese goods from October 1 to October 15.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar continues to grow steadily against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of August 1. Support for the US currency is provided by moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics on industrial inflation in the United States, published the day before. In addition, a slight improvement in the prospects for future US-Chinese trade negotiations contributes to increased demand for risk. China announced the abolition of part of import duties on American goods, and Donald Trump in response announced the postponement of the introduction of new increased duties. Thus, the market has received confirmation that the parties are preparing for a new round of negotiations in October and are interested in ending the conflict. Statistics from Japan published during today's Asian session turned out to be contradictory and did not provide significant support to the yen. The PPI in August fell by 0.9% YoY after a decline of 0.6% YoY last month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.8% YoY. Core Machinery Orders in July fell by 6.6% MoM after growth of 13.9% MoM last month. Analysts had expected the decline of 9.0% MoM.

    Oil

    Oil prices fell significantly on Wednesday, retreating under the onslaught of the rising USD and the publication of a report from the US Department of Energy. According to the report, over the week as of September 6, Crude Oil Inventories fell by 6.9M barrels after a decrease of 4.8M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected a decrease of only 2.6M barrels. At the same time, the oil refining capacities grew by 0.3% and reached the level of 95.1% against the forecast of a decrease of 0.6%. US oil production remained unchanged at 12.400M barrels per day.

  3. #1563
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-13 08:48 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR rose against USD on Thursday, updating local highs of August 29. At the same time, during the day the instrument traded mainly with a decrease, and the published ECB decision on monetary policy even led to a short-term collapse of EUR to the lows of September 3. As expected, the European regulator kept the key interest rate unchanged at 0.0% and lowered the deposit facility rate to –0.50%. The ECB also announced the launch of a new quantitative easing program of EUR 2.6 trillion at a rate of EUR 20 billion per month in November. Despite the fact that the regulator’s decision coincided with forecasts, analysts note that a certain split has been outlined in the ECB camp, and this may threaten new problems in the future. However, the European regulator is waiting for changes soon as Christine Lagarde, who now heads the IMF, will take the chair.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed a slight increase against USD on Thursday, continuing the development of flat dynamics in the short term. The focus of investors remains on the situation with Brexit. Despite the efforts of the British Parliament, the threat of the hard Brexit persists, since a new deal has not yet been developed, and the British Prime Minister remains adamant about the Irish border backstop. Yesterday's US statistic was ambiguous. In August, the Consumer Price Index slowed from +0.3% MoM to +0.1% MoM, which coincided with the forecasts. In annual terms, consumer inflation grew by 1.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of +1.8% YoY. Core CPI showed an increase of 0.3% MoM with a forecast of +0.2% MoM.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed moderate increase against USD, updating local highs of July 31. At the same time, the instrument failed to consolidate at new highs, and by the time the afternoon session closed, USD won back part of the losses amid cautious optimism from the publication of consumer inflation in the US. AUD is supported by emerging progress in the US-Chinese trade negotiations. Earlier the parties made concessions to each other: Washington postponed the date of another increase in import duties, and Beijing resumed import of agricultural machinery, raw materials and medicines from the US. Investors today are focused on macroeconomic statistics on US retail sales in August. In addition, traders are interested in data on import prices and Michigan consumer expectations in September.

    USD/JPY

    USD continues a confident upward rally against JPY, updating highs of August 1. USD is supported by a high demand for risky assets amid some improvement in global prospects. In particular, investors are optimistic about the start of a new round of trade negotiations between the United States and China, because this time the parties approach this process with some groundwork. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions. Traders are interested in data on retail sales and Michigan consumer expectations in the US. It is possible that at the end of the week the instrument will try to correct against the background of the closure of part of the long dollar positions.

    Oil

    Oil prices fell on Thursday, responding to OPEC+ decision to leave the parameters for reducing oil production unchanged. The central place in the discussions was given to the reduction of production in Russia, Nigeria and Iraq to the indicated levels, and it was decided to postpone the discussion of the issue of changing these levels to the December meeting of the cartel. Additional pressure on the instrument was provided by the ECB decision to lower deposit rates and to launch a new program of quantitative easing. Immediately after the publication of the decision of the European regulator, Donald Trump again criticized the Fed and demanded immediate action. It is possible that the decision of the American regulator next week will be adjusted according to the example of the ECB, and the market will see a more active easing of monetary policy. On Friday, investors expect the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count in the US to be published.

  4. #1564
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-16 08:40 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency ended last week trading with moderate growth against the US dollar, updating local highs of August 27. Positive dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by the improved prospects for resolving the US-Chinese trade conflict. After a series of concessions by the parties, the negotiations, which should begin in October, have a high chance of ending successfully. In addition, Donald Trump spoke out for the possibility of reaching some kind of interim solution by signing a temporary agreement that would resolve a number of basic issues. The focus of European investors remained on the outcome of the ECB meeting on Thursday. As expected, the regulator lowered the deposit rate to the level of –0.50%, and also announced the resumption of the quantitative easing program. In addition, the ECB has revised its basic forecasts for GDP and inflation.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of July 25. The instrument was supported by news on Brexit, according to which the Democratic Unionist Party, which is an ally of the ruling Conservative party, said it would approve an agreement with the EU if an item on the Irish border was excluded from it. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also spoke on the "moderate optimism" in the matter of concluding a deal with the EU. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions. The Rightmove House Price Index decreased by 0.2% MoM after a decrease of 1.0% MoM in the previous month. YoY, the indicator slowed from +1.2% to +0.2%.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed growth against the US currency on Friday, updating local highs of July 31. Optimistic signals about the US-Chinese trade negotiations, which may end with the signing of an interim agreement between the parties, contributed to the "bullish" sentiment on the instrument. During today's Asian session, the pair is also trading higher. However, the overall activity of buyers remains restrained. More confident development of the uptrend is hindered by weak statistics from China. In August, Retail Sales in China slowed from +7.6% YoY to +7.5% YoY, which turned out to be much worse than market expectations of +7.9% YoY. Industrial Production growth rate decreased from +4.8% YoY to +4.4% YoY against the forecast of +5.2% YoY.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar closed last week with a fairly steady growth against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of August 1. "Bullish" activity remains on Monday, but the instrument showed a significant gap down at the opening and is now forced to recoup to its previous local highs. The US dollar is in demand amid improved prospects for US-Chinese trade negotiations, after the parties made mutual concessions, and Donald Trump announced the possibility of concluding an interim agreement. The macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Friday was contradictory. Retail Sales in August decreased from +0.8% MoM to +0.4% MoM, which, however, turned out to be better than expectations of +0.2% MoM. At the same time, Michigan Consumer Sentiment in September showed an increase from 89.8 to 92.0 points with a forecast of 90.9 points.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a decline last week, despite the fact that on September 10 quotes updated local highs of early August. The instrument was supported on Friday by Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, which reflected a decrease in the number of rigs from 738 to 733 units. The new week trading opened with a sharp gap up. The rise in oil prices was facilitated by news from Saudi Arabia, where on September 14 supporters of the Yemeni rebel movement started a fire at an oil refinery, which halved oil production.

  5. #1565
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-17 08:49 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday, retreating from its local highs of August 27 updated at the end of last week. The pressure on the instrument was provided by weak data from China, as well as by a number of statements by representatives of the ECB that noted the low growth rates of the European economy. Retail sales in China in August showed a slowdown from 7.6% to 7.5% YoY with a forecast of +7.9% YoY. Over the same period, Industrial Production slowed down from +4.8% YoY to +4.4% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than the forecast of +5.2% YoY. During today's Asian session, the instrument shows corrective growth, awaiting the publication of European statistics on business sentiment. However, analysts do not foresee a confident growth of the pair, therefore, only weak USD exchange rate could perhaps help the “bulls”.

    GBP/USD

    GBP fell against USD at the beginning of the current trading week, reacting to several factors. Investors are still concerned about the slow pace of development around Brexit. There is not much time left until the deadline, and Boris Johnson is trying more to enlist the support of his supporters, rather than looking for ways to get the agreement approved in parliament. Johnson’s meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was unsuccessful. Moreover, the British Prime Minister reiterated his intention not to request a postponement of Brexit. It is likely that Johnson will try to ignore the parliament’s ban on the hard Brexit, but this threatens to exacerbate the political crisis in the UK, which will negatively affect the country’s economy if it does leave the EU at the end of October.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed ambiguous trading dynamics against USD on Monday, falling under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from China. In addition, investors are actively reacting to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and the increased threat of a US war with Iran. Last weekend, the oil refining facilities of Saudi Arabia were attacked, which caused a rapid increase in oil prices. The US was quick to blame Tehran for the attacks, and Donald Trump announced his readiness to retaliate after confirming the suspicions of Saudi Arabia. During today’s Asian session, the pair shows a downward trend. Investors are focused on statistics from Australia and published minutes of the RBA meeting of September 3, at which the rate was maintained unchanged at 1.00%. Australian Housing Price Index in Q2 2019 showed a decline of 0.7% QoQ after a decrease of 3.0% QoQ last month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 1.0% QoQ.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed strong growth against JPY on Monday. However, it is worth noting that the instrument opened with a significant gap down, so by the end of the trading session USD only managed to recoup its losses at the opening. Meanwhile, JPY is supported by the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East after a series of attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia. The United States accused Iran of assault and declared readiness to retaliate if Saudi Arabia confirms Tehran’s responsibility for the attack. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors expect the situation in the Middle East to develop and are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the USA on retail sales and industrial production in August.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on Monday, after the market opened with record growth of more than 10% amid a worsening situation in the Middle East. At the weekend, oil refineries in Saudi Arabia were attacked by drones, which led to a reduction in Saudi production by half. The United States accused Iran of assault, saying it was ready to strike back if Saudi Arabia confirms Washington’s suspicions. In addition, Donald Trump approved the use of petroleum products from the US strategic reserve to help stabilize supply and demand in the market. On Tuesday, investors focus on the American Petroleum Institute Crude Oil Stock report for the week as of September 13, which last time showed a decrease in reserves of 7.2 million barrels. There is little hope that today’s report will be positive.

  6. #1566
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-18 08:48 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed strong growth against USD on Tuesday, recovering from an equally strong decline of the instrument at the beginning of the week. The growth of EUR was largely technical in nature, while macroeconomic statistics remained contradictory. German ZEW Economic Sentiment in September showed an increase from –44.1 to –22.5 points with a forecast of –38.0 points. German ZEW Current Conditions for the same period fell from –13.5 to –19.9 points, which turned out to be worse than the forecasts of –15.0 points. The EU ZEW Economic Sentiment in September grew slightly from –43.6 to –22.4 points, exceeding forecasts of –37.4 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors expect the publication of the results of the Fed meeting, at which, as expected, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25 points.

    GBP/USD

    GBP rose against USD on Tuesday, updating local highs of July 19. The instrument is supported by timid optimism regarding the Brexit deal, as there has been some change in mood in the parliament. At the same time, threat of hard Brexit remains, and earlier, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that he would not ask the EU for another postponement, as required by the bill recently adopted by the parliament. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a decrease. On Wednesday, investors are focused on statistics from the UK on consumer and industrial inflation in August, as well as a decision by the Fed on interest rate.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Tuesday, recovering to the opening levels from local lows of September 6. The instrument managed to strengthen against the background of the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Industrial production in August showed an increase of 0.6% MoM after a decrease of 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts had expected increase by +0.2% MoM. Capacity Utilization Rate in August also increased from 77.5% to 77.9%, exceeding the forecast of 77.6%. Today, the instrument is declining, pending the publication of the Fed decision on the interest rate. In addition, investors are waiting for the release of a report on the Australian labor market on Thursday.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed ambiguous trading dynamics against JPY on Tuesday, updating local highs of early August. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from the US provided some support for USD, but moderate demand for safe haven assets leveled the entire “bullish” advantage of the dollar. During today's Asian session, the instrument is again trading in both directions, awaiting the Fed's decision on the interest rate. Statistics from Japan was contradictory. Japanese exports went down by 8.2% YoY in August after the decline by 1.5% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected even larger decline by –10.9% YoY. Imports collapsed by 12.0% YoY for the same period after a decline of 1.2% YoY last month. Forecasts suggested a decrease of 11.2% YoY. The deficit of the adjusted Trade Balance in August amounted to 136.80B yen, which is slightly worse than the previous value of –126.751B yen, but noticeably better than market expectations of –268.40B yen.

    Oil

    Oil prices fell on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia reported that the previous production volumes could be fully restored within a few weeks. Over the weekend, oil refineries in Saudi Arabia were attacked by drones, which halved production volumes and intensified the crisis in the Middle East. Oil reacted to these events with significant growth, updating highs of the end of May. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report published on Tuesday reflected a moderate increase in reserves for the week as of September 13 at 0.592 million barrels after a decrease of 7.200 million barrels over the past period. On Wednesday, in addition to the publication of the Fed decision on the interest rate, investors expect the release of EIA Crude Oil Inventories report.

  7. #1567
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-19 08:37 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency again showed a decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, partially offsetting the active growth of the instrument the day before. The development of the downtrend was promoted by contradictory macroeconomic statistics from Europe, as well as by the results of the meeting of the Fed, at which the US regulator made a predicted decision to reduce the interest rate to 2.00%. Euro area's CPI in August showed a slight increase of 0.1% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM last month. Analysts expected a more active growth of +0.2% MoM. In annual terms, inflation growth remained at the previous level of 1% YoY. Construction Output in the euro area in July fell by 0.73% MoM after rising by 0.64% MoM last month. The indicator was worse than the forecast of +0.70% MoM. In annual terms, production volumes slowed down from +1.6% YoY to +1.1% YoY, which turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of +1.0% YoY.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed a decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, retreating from its local highs, updated the day before. Pressure on the instrument was provided by statistics on Consumer Inflation published in the UK. CPI in annual terms slowed down from +2.1% YoY to +1.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of +1.8% YoY. Core CPI for the same period strengthened by 1.5% YoY with the forecast of 1.8% YoY. In monthly terms, the index growth accelerated from 0.1% MoM to +0.4% MoM, which did not reach the forecast of +0.7% MoM. Another negative factor for the pound is still the situation around Brexit. Earlier the European Commission approved the possibility of delaying the deadline for Brexit, but reminded the UK of financial obligations. Today, investors are focused on the Bank of England meeting on the interest rate. Given the high degree of uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the British regulator is not expected to make any changes to the monetary policy vector, however, official comments will continue to be important.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed an active decline on Wednesday and continues the steady development of the downtrend during today's Asian session. The Fed’s decision to lower the interest rate to 2.00%, which was published the day before, only slightly affected the position of the American currency, since it had long been incorporated into current quotes. Investors are focused on the statistics on the Australian labor market today. Employment Change in August showed an increase of 34.7K jobs after an increase of 41.1K last month. Analysts expected only +10.0K. Participation Rate increased from 66.1% to 66.2%, which also turned out to be better than the forecast. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in August expectedly increased from 5.2% to 5.3%.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar closed Wednesday trading with moderate growth against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of August 1. During today's Asian session, the instrument shows an active decline, retreating from updated highs. In addition to a number of technical factors, pressure on the pair is exerted by the decision taken by the Fed yesterday to lower the interest rate to 2.00%. Despite the fact that the decision of the US regulator was quite predictable, a certain intrigue persisted, and some analysts expected more active actions of the regulator, as repeatedly called on by Donald Trump. Jerome Powell did not disclose any plans for the remaining year, noting only that they “will act according to the situation.” Today, investors are focused on the Bank of Japan meeting on the interest rate. As expected, the Japanese regulator left the key rate unchanged at –0.1%, indicating growing risks and a high level of uncertainty in the global economy.

    Oil

    Oil prices continued a moderate decline on Wednesday, developing a downtrend since the beginning of the week, when the instrument opened with a sharp upward gap in response to a series of attacks on the oil production capacities of Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, quotes plummeted amid statements by Saudi Arabia about the full restoration of oil production in a few weeks. Additional pressure on the instrument yesterday was exerted by the EIA report indicating an increase in oil inventories for the week as of September 13 by 1.1M barrels. The volume of oil production in the United States did not change and amounted to the previous 12.400M barrels per day.

  8. #1568
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-20 08:38 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed strong growth against the US dollar yesterday, at some point reaching levels of opening trading on Wednesday, which ended with a fairly confident decline of the instrument. At the close of yesterday's session, the euro retreated, having lost most of its gains. The reason for the appearance of a corrective pullback was good data from the United States. Existing Home Sales in August increased by 1.3% MoM after growth of 2.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% MoM. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in September fell from 16.8 to 12.0 points, which was still better than market expectations of 11.0 points. During today's Asian session, the euro is trading with an increase again. Investors expect publication of German PPI and preliminary data on Consumer Confidence in the euro area in September.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local highs of July 15. The Bank of England Meeting Minutes published the day before did not affect the dynamics of the instrument, since they fully met market expectations. The British regulator unanimously decided to keep the interest rate at the current level of 0.75%. The volume of the quantitative easing program remained at around 435 billion pounds. In turn, statistics on Retail Sales in the UK exerted little pressure on the pair. In August, the indicator fell by 0.3% MoM after growth of 0.4% MoM last month. In annual terms, the index has slowed from +3.4% YoY to +2.7% YoY, with the forecast of +2.9% YoY. The main factor behind the growth of the pound was the comments of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who noted that he believed in the conclusion of the Brexit deal before October 31.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar is slightly correcting against the US currency during today's Asian session, recovering from two days of steady decline. Contradictory data on the Australian labor market put pressure on the instrument on Thursday. Despite a steady increase in employment by 34.7K jobs in August, the country's Unemployment Rate reached new highs at 5.3%, which is likely to push the RBA to new measures to stimulate the economy. Nevertheless, after a series of world regulators meetings, the attention of investors is once again shifting to the process of negotiations between the US and China, which should begin in October. So far, the prospects for a new round of trade talks look very encouraging.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Thursday, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The decrease in the instrument is largely technical in nature, since the market situation is not changing much. Demand for the Japanese currency is supported by a further decrease in forecasts for world GDP growth and the uncertain situation around Brexit and the new round of US-Chinese trade negotiations. During today's Asian session, investors focus on consumer inflation statistics from Japan. In August, the National Consumer Price Index slowed down from the previous +0.5% YoY to +0.3% YoY, which turned out to be twice worse than forecasts. The investment indicators were also negative. Foreign Bonds Buying for the week as of September 13 slowed from 727.2 to 476.0 billion Japanese yen. Foreign investment in the Japanese stocks fell by 971.9 billion yen after a decrease of 161.5 billion.

    Oil

    Oil prices corrected on Thursday, departing from local lows, updated after a steady decline in quotes at the beginning of the week. The situation with drone attacks on Saudi oil production complexes is gradually fading into the background, but now investors are paying attention to the depletion of oil reserves in Saudi Arabia, which will not allow it to restore supply volumes just as easily in the event of new attacks. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains tense. The day before, US President Donald Trump ordered to significantly increase sanctions against Iran, which could lead to a new round of crisis in the region.

  9. #1569
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-23 08:43 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Friday, returning to previous local lows of September 17. The development of negative dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Germany's Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% MoM in August after rising by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts expected a decline of 0.2% MoM. YoY, the index growth slowed down from +1.1% to +0.3%, which also turned out to be worse than forecast of +0.6% YoY. Preliminary data on Consumer Confidence in the euro area also did not provide significant support for the euro. In September, the indicator slightly increased from –7.1 to –6.5 points, which turned out to be better than expectations of –7.0 points. During today's Asian session, the pair is growing, being influenced by technical factors. Investors are awaiting the publication of Markit PMI in Europe for September.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound fell against the US currency on Friday, retreating from updated local highs of July 5. Investors are again concerned about the threat of a tough Brexit, which serves as an additional source of market uncertainty. Speaking on Friday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that Britain’s withdrawal from the EU without an agreement would lead to border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Juncker noted that he still counts on concluding a final deal, but the risks of a “tough” scenario cannot be ignored. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading upwards, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. With the opening of the American trading session, investors expect publication of Markit PMI in the US for September.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed a steady decline against the US currency on Friday, updating local lows of September 4. The instrument remains under pressure amid the worsening growth prospects of the global economy and the lack of visible progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations, which should become more active in early October. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a slight increase. Investors are focused on Commonwealth Bank PMI in Australia. In September, according to preliminary estimates, Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.9 to 49.4 points, which turned out to be worse than expectations of 50.9 points. Services PMI increased from 49.1 to 52.5 points, which was significantly better than expectations of 45.3 points. Composite PMI in September rose from 49.3 to 51.9 points, confidently consolidating above the psychological mark of 50 points.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Friday, continuing to develop the “bearish” impulse formed the day before. Investors are holding long positions amid a worsening crisis in the Middle East. At the end of last week, US President Donald Trump approved the dispatch of US troops to Saudi Arabia to strengthen defense after the attack on oil production facilities that occurred the week before last. It is too early to speak of the beginning of a full-fledged military operation, but alarming signals worry investors and increase interest in safe assets. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Japanese markets are closed due to the Autumn Equinox Day, so all the attention of traders is focused on American and European statistics.

    Oil

    Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, but returned to negative dynamics closer to the end of the afternoon session. Quotes are supported by rising tensions in the Middle East after an attack on key oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia the week before last. The Kingdom announced a military operation north of the city of Hodeidah, while Donald Trump approved the sending of troops to Saudi Arabia to strengthen defense capabilities. In addition, it became known that Riyadh is actively importing oil production equipment from the United States, so that by the end of the month most of the stopped facilities can be restored. Baker Hughes report released last Friday indicated a sharp decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the US from 733 to 719 rigs, which also provided significant support for quotes.

  10. #1570
    MikhailLF is offline Senior Member
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    Sep 2017
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-24 08:37 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Monday, continuing the development of an uncertain "bearish" impulse formed at the end of last week. The pressure on the instrument yesterday was exerted by German PMI data, which again came out worse than market expectations. Markit Services PMI in May declined from 54.8 to 52.5 points with the forecast of the decline to 54.3 points. Over the same period, Manufacturing PMI fell from 43.5 to 41.4 points with a positive forecast of 44.0 points. Composite PMI in September fell from 51.7 to 49.1 points, which also turned out to be worse than expected 51.4 points. The situation with the euro area's indices as a whole is very similar to German data, especially in the manufacturing sector. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading in both directions, and investors are expecting IFO Business Sentiment in Germany for September.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound fell against the US dollar at the beginning of the new week, showing the development of a negative impulse formed last Friday. Pressure on the instrument is still exerted by the prospects of a tough Brexit, which will have the most negative consequences for the British economy. On Monday, the macroeconomic background in the UK remained empty, so investors were focused on the US data on business activity, which supported USD. Markit Manufacturing PMI in September showed an increase from 50.3 to 51.0 points. Services PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.9 points, which, however, did not reach the forecast of 51.3 points. Composite PMI for September strengthened from 50.7 to 51.0 points, which turned out to be significantly better than expectations of 49.6 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors expect publication of data on the volume of placements of 30-year government bonds and public sector borrowing for August. In addition, the market is awaiting the release of a report from CBI on the volume of industrial orders in September.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Monday, remaining in the area of local lows updated on September 20. Statistics on Australian PMI turned out to be contradictory and did not provide significant support for the national currency. The Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.9 to 49.4 points in September, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of 50.9 points. Services PMI increased from 49.1 to 52.5 points, which was significantly better than expectations of 45.3 points. Composite PMI in September rose from 49.3 to 51.9 points, confidently consolidating above the psychological mark of 50 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are not in a hurry to open new positions before the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, who is likely to speak about the prospects for further easing of monetary policy.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed a decline against the Japanese yen on Monday, updating local lows of September 10. Nevertheless, closer to the end of the afternoon session, the instrument managed to recoup, which was caused by the publication of good statistics on business activity from the USA, which looked especially good in contrast to weak European data. Japanese markets were closed on Monday due to the Autumn Equinox Day. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Some pressure on the yen was exerted by Japanese data on business activity. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 49.3 to 48.9 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a slight increase on Monday, responding to improved prospects for the restoration of previous oil production volume in Saudi Arabia. However, the instrument again finished trading in the red zone, which was caused by a short-term strengthening of the US currency. Additional pressure on the quotes was provided by weak data on German Manufacturing PMI. Today, investors are awaiting API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week as of September 20.

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