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  1. #21
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    Brent: review

    1. Current trend

    At yesterday’s trading session Brent significantly rose in price, despite recent fall to the level of 105.70, which were the lows of the last four weeks. The rise was triggered by the US macro-economic statistics. According to the released data US GDP increased by 1.7% in Q2 2013, which was above analysts’ forecast, who expected the rise of only 1%. At the same time Brent has also strengthened due to technical purchases, caused by the decline in rate.
    Although recently released data on oil inventories was below experts’ expectations, this fact did not put significant pressure on the Brent rate. Over the past week commercial crude oil inventories in the US increased by 400 thousand barrels, gasoline inventories rose by 800 thousand barrels, while analysts had anticipated significant decline in oil products.
    Today Brent rate is supported by the data from China, the second largest oil consumer. Business activity index PMI in China rose to the level of 50.3 points against the forecast of 49.8 points. This data indicates positive dynamics in the manufacturing activity in China, thus, increasing optimism among investors, who worried about slowdown in the economic growth of China.
    US macro-statistics, which is scheduled for the release today, may affect crude oil Brent rate. This will be:
    15:30 (GMT+3) Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits;
    17:00 (GMT+3) Business activity index in the manufacturing sector estimated by the Institute for Supply management (ISM).


    2. Important levels: support and resistance

    Support levels for Brent are: 107.30, 106.30 and 105.70. Resistance levels: 108.20 and 109.00.




    Alexander Freis
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  2. #22
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD: rapid growth up to the level of 1.5300 is expected


    1. Current trend
    On Wednesday the British currency was under pressure due to the decreasing demand for the pound and favourable US statistics. The data released yesterday showed that the US GDP rose by 1.7% in Q2, which was above the forecast. The USD received support and the pair dropped to the level of 1.5130. to In response to the news that the US Fed left interest rate at the previous level, the pair GBP/USD rapidly went up to the level of 1.5250. After that the pair resumed slow decline.


    Today the pair continued to decline and reached the level of 1.5130. Later, in anticipation of important publications on British economy investors started to buy the Pound and the pair went up. Index of manufacturing activity, as per PMI estimates, has exceeded the forecast, giving additional support to the pair and it reached the level of 1.5200. However, the main news is yet to come: this afternoon the Bank of England will announce key interest rate and will make a decision on the volume of asset purchase program.




    2. Important levels: support and resistance

    Today the pair has consolidated above the key resistance level of 1.5160. In future a lot will depend on the speech by the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. Amid economic stabilization of the past several months, the pair can receive considerable support. In the medium-term the pair is likely to reach the level of 1.5300 and go further up to the recent local highs of 1.5400 and 1.5450.

    3. Best entry/exit points
    In the current situation it is advisable to place long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5300-1.5400.

    4. Supporting facts
    On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the negative zone below the signal line and is directed downward, indicating either downward correction or the beginning of the downtrend.



    Dmitry Likhachev
    Analysts of LiteForexGroup of Companies

    Analysts of LiteForexGroup of Companies[/i]
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  3. #23
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF

    USD/CHF, H4
    On the four-hour chart Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines are merged and stay horizontal. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from below, current cloud is descending. The pair has consolidated above Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen, which became the nearest support at 0.9283. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud at 0.9335.


    USD/CHF, D1

    Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-Sen line is below Kijun-Sen line, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above, current cloud is descending. The nearest resistance level is Tenkan-Sen line at 0.9321. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.9200.



    Key levels
    Support levels: 0.9267, 0.9200.
    Resistance levels: 0.9331, 0.9366.


    Trading tips
    On the four-hour chart we can see a development of trend reversal. Long trades can be opened at the current price with Take profit orders around 0.9335 level. Daily chart doesn’t confirm trend reversal. The target for the long-term sell positions is still 0.9200.
    Anastasiya Glushkova
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  4. #24
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD: following correction the pair is prepared to grow

    1. Current trend of GBP/USD

    A lot of important data on British and American economics has been released at the end of this week, which increased volatility in the pair. Yesterday the Bank of England announced key interest rate and volume of asset purchase program. The indices remained at the previous levels, so the release of this data hardly had any effect on the movement in the pair. Later, the Pound got support from the strong data on index of manufacturing activity, which demonstrated growth to the level of 54.6, exceeding all forecasts.
    The pair soared up to the level of 1.5240. However, after the release of data on labour market and index of business activity in the USA the pair went back to support 1.5100 and consolidated near this level.

    Attention today shall be paid to Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate. In addition, the data on personal spending, basic price index for private consumption spending and manufacturing orders will be known today.


    2. Important levels: support and resistance

    In the last few days the USD has been actively regaining positions, while the pair GBP/USD has already lost more than 300 points. Fundamentals to be published today will be of importance. If unemployment rate remains at the previous level and a number of jobs excluding agricultural sector drops, the USD will go down significantly. UK has been showing positive economic statistics since the beginning of the year, which indicates the economy of the country is gradually recovering. The pair is likely to grow later, amid weak data on the US labour market.

    3. Best exit/entry points

    In the current situation it is advisable to place long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5300-1.5400.

    4. Supporting facts

    On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the negative zone below the signal line and is directed downward, indicating either descending correction or the beginning of the downtrend.



    Dmitry Likhachev
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  5. #25
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls as well as other statistics can weaken the USD

    1. Current trend

    Yesterday’s macro-economic data was above analysts’ forecast. Number of announced corporate layoffs as well as number of applications for unemployment benefits was below expectations.
    Business activity index rose up to the level of 55.4 points. This fact provoked the decline in quotes: the price went beyond the lower limit of the channel; however the American currency did not continue strengthening.
    Today, the pair traded at the level of 1.3220, due to technical support from the lower limit of the channel. Further movement will be determined by the economic data, scheduled for the release today, including: number of jobs excluding agricultural sector, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and consumer spending.
    Expected reduction in unemployment rate will hardly provide support to the USD amid anticipated decline in jobs by 9 thousand, cuts in people’s income and the rise in spending. Based on the indices’ performance, investors will be able to decide whether measures taken by Federal Reserve in respect to the quantitative easing program have been efficient or not.

    2. Levels of support and resistance

    The first important resistance level is 1.3254, next one is 1.3304. Support levels are 1.3184 and 1.3160.

    3. Trading tips

    In anticipation of the negative performance of the US economy I would recommend to open long positions with the target of 1.3304. Stop-loss can be placed at the level of 1.3160. If the price exceeds resistance level of 1.3254, it will make sense to move stop-loss in the black zone.



    Kamil Avad
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  6. #26
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD

    XAU/USD, H4

    Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line, and they are both horizontal. Last Friday gold went up and entered the cloud once again. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is descending. The closest support level is Kijun -Sen line (1310.92). Resistance level will be at the upper border of the cloud (1326.83).



    XAU/USD, D1

    On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and the price is between them. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines are moving towards each other indicating future cloud reversal. Upper (1333.92) and lower (1292.36) borders of the cloud become resistance and support levels respectively.



    Key levels
    Support levels: 1326.83, 1333.92.
    Resistance levels: 1310.92, 1292.36.


    Trading tips
    On the four-hour chart the price has entered the cloud. It is not advised to open new trades. On the daily chart we can see the same situation, the price is moving sideways. Further direction of the movement will be determined by the breakdown of one of the cloud borders.

    Anastasiya Glushkova
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  7. #27
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD: general analysis

    1. Current trend

    At the end of the last trading week the pair received support from the US macro-economic data. On 2 August statistics on unemployment and the data on nonfarm payrolls have been released. Although unemployment rate fell to the level of 7.4%, a number of jobs outside agricultural sector fell to 162 thousand, which was below experts’ expectations. Market immediately responded to this news by the decline in demand for the USD. The USD rate broke down resistance level of 1.3254 and consolidated above this level.
    Today the pair went up due to positive statistics on Eurozone: business activity index in the service sector of Spain and Italy rose above all expectations. Attention today shall be also paid to the consumer confidence index in Eurozone, retail sales and index of business activity in the US non-manufacturing sector.

    2. Levels of support and resistance

    The pair traded near resistance level of 1.3304, which can be exceeded after the release of news from Europe. Next resistance level is 1.3344. Support level is 1.3254.

    3. Technical indicators

    MACD histogram is on the positive zone, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line from below to above. Central line of the “Bollinger bands” indicator has crossed the price chart from bottom to top. Aggregate data of the indicators suggests a chance of the rise in quotes.

    4. Trading tips

    I would recommend to buy at the current price with the target of 1.3344.



    Kamil Avad
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  8. #28
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    Brent: Review

    1. Current trend

    Last week crude oil Brent rate significantly dropped under the effect of US macro-economic statistics. By the end of the session the price of Brent was $108.77.
    Investors were disappointed by the data on the US labour market. Number of jobs outside agricultural sector grew by 162 thousand against the forecast of 184 thousand. It was the lowest index since March.
    Brent rate was also under pressure from technical sales of oil futures before the weekend, as significant growth earlier gave participants good chances for taking profits.
    On Monday Brent rate went up, reaching the level of 109.38; however in the result of correction the rate fell to the level of 108.63.

    2. Important levels: support and resistance

    Resistance levels for Brent are 109.40 and 110.00. Support levels are 108.30 and 107.60.



    Alexander Freis
    Analyst of LiteForexGroup of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  9. #29
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    USD/CAD: rise to the level of 1.0400 is possible

    1. Current trend of USD/CAD

    On Monday the pair USD/CAD rate fell to support level of 1.0360. The decline was part of the correction, which followed after the rise at the end of last week. Today’s attention shall be drawn to the publication of the trading balances in the US and Canada for June. Experts believe that trade balance deficit in the USA will decline, while deficit in the Canadian trade balance will increase, which will trigger the rise in the SD against the CAD.

    2. Important levels: support and resistance

    At the moment the pair traded near the level of 1.0360, which actually coincides with the moving average of the “Bollinger bands” indicator. During the day downward movement may reach the level of 1.0320, which coincides with the boundary of the ascending channel. The price is likely to go up to the level of 1.0400. In the current situation it is advisable to open long positions with profit taking near the level of 1.0400.

    3. Technical indicators

    On the daily chart Bollinger lines are directed downward; however the price chart had broken the moving average and moved into the upper band, indicating a chance of growth. Histogram of MACD indicator is in the oversold zone and its volumes continue to decrease. The lines of Stochastic are near the overbought zone (80) and directed upward. In the near future these lines may intersect and shift to descending movement; however a sell signal has not been formed yet.



    Dmitriy Zolotov
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  10. #30
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD: Trading Balance data can strengthen USD

    1. Current trend of EUR/USD

    This week the pair EUR/USD started with the decline to 1.3330. Strengthening in the USD is associated with the fact that investors took profit on the short positions, opened last Friday, following the publication of the Non-farming payrolls. Additional support to the pair was provided by the data on business activity index in the non-manufacturing sector of the USA, which rose to 56.0 points in July. Attention today should be focused on the US trade balance for June. According to experts its deficit may be reduced, which can foster strengthening of the USD.

    2. Important levels: support and resistance

    At the moment the pair is testing support level of 1.3250, however it cannot exceed it down yet. If this level is broken down, the price will drop to the level of 1.3200 and from this level the pair may reverse to the ascending movement. In the current situation short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3250 with profit taking at 1.3200. It is also advisable to place pending orders “buy limit” at the level of 1.3200 with profit taking at the level of 1.3340.

    3. Technical indicators

    On the daily chart bands of Bollinger indicator are directed upward, the price chart is going towards the moving average line, suggesting probability of the decline to the level of 1.3200. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone and it may cross the signal line from top to bottom in the near future, forming a sell signal. On the contrary, Stochastic lines are intersecting, tending upward, indicating a chance of temporary ascending movement.



    Dmitriy Zolotov
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

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