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  1. #501
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD: weakening of the British economy continues to put pressure on the Pound

    Current trend

    This week the pair GBP/USD has reached new annual lows at the level of 1.5654. The British Pound is still under pressure from the inflation report of the Bank of England, which shows that in the next six months inflation rate can be less than 1%. The British regulator has also lowered the forecast of economic growth up to 2.9%, which boosted sales of the British currency.
    Downward movement in the pair can continue today because of the macro-economic statistics. Preliminary GDP in Eurozone is likely to be negative. At the same time volume of retail sales in the USA can increase by 0.2%, which will support the USD.

    Support and resistance

    At the moment the pair is undergoing upward correction; however the rise will be short-term. In the near future downward movement will resume, reaching the levels of 1.5650, 1.5600 and probably 1.5555. Technical indicators confirm that the decline will continue. Bollinger bands are diverging, showing that downtrend is strong. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are in the overbought zone and directed upwards.

    Support levels: 1.5650, 1.5600 and 1.5555.
    Resistance levels: 1.5715, 1.5790 and 1.5850.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions from the level of 1.5650 with the first target of 1.5600 and the next target of 1.5555.



    Dmitriy Zolotov
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  2. #502
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

    Current trend
    Last week the USD continued to strengthen due to positive US macro-economic statistics; however the pair EUR/USD was not able to consolidate below the level of 1.2400. The data on the US retail sales and consumer confidence index have exceeded the forecast; while the increasing number of applications for unemployment benefits has slightly spoiled statistics. As a result, the pair finished the last week reaching the level 1.2520.
    At today’s opening session the pair at first continued to rise, but then fell to support level of 1.2490. In the afternoon, Mario Draghi, a chairman of the ECB, will give a speech, which can shed light on the future policy of the regulator. On Wednesday, final minutes of the US Fed meeting will become known. On Thursday, US consumer price index will be released.

    Support and resistance
    Technical indicators show that the pair has broken through above the level of 1.2500, which could have become a signal of trend reversal; however the price at once underwent downward correction. If the pair does not consolidate above the level of 23.6 Fibonacci, it will again test the bottom limit of the channel at the level of 1.2400.
    Support levels: 1.2485, 1.2460, 1.2440, 1.2420 and 1.2395. The main target of the “bears” is to go below the level of 1.2485. Resistance levels:1.2500, 1.2525, 1.2550 and 12580.

    Trading tips
    It makes sense to open buy positions from the level of 1.2500 with the target of 1.2580. Sell positions can be opened below the level of 1.2485. it is also advisable to place limit buy orders at the level of 1.2395.



    Ilya Lashenko
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  3. #503
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    Brent: analysis and forecast

    Current trend

    Since the breakdown of support level at 80.00 last week, (which was rather psychological than a technical level), the price chart has never risen above this mark. Oil prices have been declining since the summer, and it seems that this trend will remain unchanged. One of the main factors putting pressure on Brent is the increasing volume of oil production. Market participants assume that at the next meeting OPEC, which will be held on 27 November in Vienna, no proposals will be made to reduce oil production and decrease market supply. Amid these expectations Brent fell to the level of 76.76; however, later the price corrected up to the level of 78.00.

    Support and resistance

    On the four-hour chart technical indicators show the lull in the market. Bollinger bands are converging, showing lack of activity in the market. MACD indicator does not give clear signals either. Histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing.

    Resistance levels: 79.40, 80.40, 81.60 and 82.80.
    Support levels: 77.90, 76.76, 77.00 and 76.00.

    Trading tips

    Brent has shifted to consolidation phase. Trading is carried out in the range of 77.90-79.40. The most feasible scenario is sideways movement of the price in the above range.



    Vadim Smarzh
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  4. #504
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

    Current trend
    On Monday the pair USD/JPY traded in the range of 115.45-117.05. After the opening of the session the price fell; however after determining support level, the chart went up. Market is in anticipation of the interest rate decision at tomorrow’ meeting of the Bank of Japan. In case of the increase in the interest rate, Japanese currency will grow significantly.

    Support and resistance
    On the four-hour chart moving average lines with the periods of 10 and 20 are directed upwards, which indicates upward movement.
    Resistance levels: local highs of 116.82 and 117.05. Consolidation of the price above 117.05 will enable the rise in price up to the levels of 118.00-118.50.
    Support levels: 114.59 and 113.15 (lows of the previous week).

    Trading tips
    It is recommended to open long positions after consolidation of the price above the level of 116.82.

    [img]http://www.liteforex.com/uploads/other/6a18da8ae681bb2b2577ca1830d031cd.jpeg">

    Andrey Cherkas
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  5. #505
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    NZD/USD: the pair is undergoing correctiont

    Current trend

    On Tuesday quotes of the pair sharply dropped reaching the level of 0.7852. Strengthening in the USD had been of the technical nature, although the USD was also supported by the rise in the producer price index for October. At the moment the primary target of the “bears” is 0.7840 (bottom line of Bollinger bands). The quotes are unlikely to go further down. Market participant will not take risk in advance of the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the US FOMC meeting today. Details of the minutes can lead to the strong movement in the market.

    Support and resistance

    In our opinion the level of 0.7840 is the key one at the moment. Breakdown of this level will make it possible for the price to go down to the levels of 0.7810 и 0.7780. If the minutes of the US Fed meeting will be interpreted as negative in the market, the quotes can go back to the level of 0.7915 (middle line of Bollinger bands). Indicators do not give clear signals. Bollinger bands are horizontal. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines can cross and form a buy signal.

    Support levels: 0.7840, 0.7810 and 0.7780.
    Resistance levels: 0.7915, 0.7945 and 0.7975.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation it is advisable to open short positions with the target of 0.7780 if the price consolidates below the level of 0.7840. However, if the price pushes off from the bottom line of Bollinger bands and reached the level of 0.7870, it will make sense to open long positions with the target of 0.7915.



    Dmitriy Zolotov
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  6. #506
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD: review

    Current trend
    At yesterday’s trading session the price of GBP/USD has slightly rose. At the end of the trading day the British currency gained over 60 points against the USD. The pair GBP/USD was supported by the outcome of yesterday’s meeting of the Bank of England, where it was decided to leave interest rate at the previous level, due to low inflation rate, which showed growth of only 1.3% in October versus 2%, which is the target set by the Bank of England. The main positive detail in the outcome of the meeting was the fact that not all 9 regulators of the Bank of England unanimously approved the decision to keep interest rate at the existing level. Two regulators voted for the rise in the interest rate in November. A range of opinions among those, who voted in favor of maintaining existing level of interest rate, was also wide. Today, the price of GBP/USD has corrected after yesterday’s rise and is trading in the sideways range. Among interesting fundamental news will be UK retail sales data for October (12:30 GMT+2), and the US inflation data (16:30 GMT+3).

    Support and resistance
    Support levels: 1.5630, 1.5590, 1.5540 and 1.5500.
    Resistance levels: 1.5680, 1.5720, 1.5760, 1.5780 and 1.5810.

    Trading tips
    On the four-hour chart technical indicators show that market is relatively quiet. In anticipation of the macro-economic news the pair is traded in the sideways channel. Buy positions are advisable in case of consolidation of the price above the level of 1.5680. Next target of the “bulls” will be yesterday’s highs of 1.5720. Long-term target of the “bulls” is 1.5760. Trend reversal can take place in case of consolidation of the pair below the level of 1.5590. In this case the “bears” will try to drop the pair further down to the levels of 1.5540 and 1.5500.



    Vadim Smarzh
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  7. #507
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    USD/CAD: the pair is trading in the downward channel

    Current trend

    On Thursday, correction in the pair USD/CAD continued. The quotes had tested the upper line of Bollinger bands indicator, but after failing to break it down, the pair fell to the level of 1.1293. Pressure on the USD was caused by the weekly report on initial applications for unemployment benefits, the number of applications amounted to 291 thousand, which was above the forecast. The data on preliminary index of business activity in the manufacturing sector was also negative, as per Markit. The index fell to the level of 54.7 points, which is the worst performance since this January. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar was supported by Canadian retail sales statistics, which increased by 1.8% in September.

    Today, market participants are waiting for the release of consumer price index in Canada for October. It is expected that this index will increase and reach the level of 2.1%, which can provide support to the Canadian currency.

    Support and resistance

    Currently, the pair is rising to the level of 1.1315 (middle line of Bollinger bands); however the trading is carried out in the downward channel. The level of 1.1315 seems the key one and in case of breakdown of this level the price can continue upward movement up to the upper limit of the channel at the level of 1.1345. Otherwise, the price can fall to 1.1270. Technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands are in the sideways channel. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines are leaving oversold zone, forming a buy signal.

    Support levels: 1.1270 and 1.1250.
    Resistance levels: 1.1315 and 1.1345.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation long positions with the target of 1.1345 can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1315. Short positions can be opened if the price pushes off from the level of 1.1315 and reaches the level of 1.1300. In this case take profit is advisable at the level of 1.1270.



    Dmitriy Zolotov
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  8. #508
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD: general review

    Current trend
    At the previous trading session European currency has significantly weakened against the American currency. Starting from the morning Euro had been declining. The pressure on the pair was caused by the comments of Mr. Mario Draghi about possibility of the additional incentive measures aimed at the increasing inflation level in Eurozone. Amid this fact Euro lost over 150 points.
    Today, investors are waiting for the data on ISM index in Germany (12:00 GMT+2), and business activity index in the US service sector (17:45 GMT+2).

    Support and resistance
    On the four-hour chart technical indicators show that downward movement will continue. Bollinger bands are diverging, forming a sell signal. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are increasing.
    Resistance levels: 1.2410, 1.2460, 1.2510 and 1.2570.
    Support levels: 1.2380, 1.2360, 1.2300 and 1.2250.

    Trading tips
    If current trend continues, it is advisable to open sell positions after breakdown of the level of 1.2380 with the nearest target of 1.2360. However, correction movement is also possible. The “bulls” will try to push the pair up to the level of 1.2410, from which buyers will make an attempt to test the level of 1.2460.



    Vadim Smarzh
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  9. #509
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    XAU/USD: increase in demand for the USD will cause significant pressure on the pair

    Current trend

    Gold continues to trade in the upward channel. At the end of last week the pair had tested the new local highs at the level of 1207.50; however after unsuccessful attempt to break down this level, the pair returned into the range of 1190.00-1200.00.
    Today, US revised GDP for Q3 will become known. It is expected that economic growth rate in the USA will slow down. In addition, US consumer confidence index will be published. This index can grow, which will support the national currency.

    Support and resistance

    In future it is expected that the pair can slightly go up to the upper limit of the channel (1207.50), after that, investors” interest to the American dollar can increase and the pair will go down to the levels of 1182.00 and 1187.00. In the medium-term the pair is likely to go down to the target level of 1162.00.

    Support levels: 1202.50, 1207.50, 1.217.90, 1230.20 and 1235.00.
    Resistance levels: 1194.00, 1187.00, 1181.90, 1176.50, 1170.00 and 1162.00.

    Trading tips

    It is recommended to open short positions and a stop-loss slightly above the key resistance level and the local highs of 1207.50. Take profit is advisable at the lower limit of the upward channel of 1182.00.



    Dmitry Likhachev
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

  10. #510
    Shuvalov is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD: attention will be focused on European labor market data

    Current trend

    On Thursday the pair EUR/USD had reached the upper limit of the channel at resistance level of 1.2530. After that the price pushed off from this level and went down. Positive data on the key European indices had not supported Euro, while the demand for the USD has increased significantly. Today, downward movement continues; investors strongly sell European currency and poor performance of French economy puts additional pressure on Euro.
    Today, the data on European labor market will be known, as well as consumer price index in Eurozone for November. If negative forecast turns out to be correct, the price of the pair EUR/USD can fall to the level of 1.2360.

    Support and resistance

    The data on labor market in Eurozone can significantly increase volatility in the pair. If the index remains at the previous high level of 11.5%, it will have a negative impact on European currency; while the decline in consumer price index can drop the pair to the key support levels of 1.2400 and 1.2360. In cease of breakdown of the level of 1.2360, the price can fall to the level of 1.2300.

    Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2260 and 1.2150.
    Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2570, 1.2600, 1.2630, 1.2660, 1.2740 and 1.2770.

    Trading tips

    In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions with stop-loss above the level of 1.2600 and the target of 1.2360; in the medium-term the price is likely to fall further down to the level of 1.2300 (1.2150).



    Dmitry Likhachev
    Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
    Sergei Shuvalov
    LiteForex representative
    http://www.liteforex.com

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