Sentiment and technical considerations favor a top forming now. On the sentiment side, the risk reversal rate (call option volatility - put option volatility) on 25 delta 3 month EURUSD options is the highest in at least 6 years (I have data that extends only to 2003) and speculators (as reported from the CFTC through COT numbers) are net short US dollars for the first time since May 2008 (near a former USD bottom).

( more http://forex-market.ucoz.com/publ/12 )