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Thread: Daily Market Outlook

  1. #11
    jebat66 is offline Senior Member
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    USD/CHF Wave Analysis for September 3 - 2012 2012-09-03 0/5




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    USD/CHF Elliott Wave
    Since our last analysis the USD/CHF pair was trading in a downward move, like we expected, developing impulsive (3) wave (coloured black) of the bigger 5 wave (coloured purple). During the Friday European and New York sessions we could observe a descending movement towards the 0.9500 level and we can consider this move as the end of the smaller 3 wave of the impulsive (3) wave (coloured black). Therefore, during the second half of the NY session this major pair started pushing higher and the price reached 0.9560 level. At the moment the USD/CHF pair is developing final 5 wave of the bigger (3) wave and we are expecting to see the price around 0.9475 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9660-0.9538-0.9634), with Take Profit at 0.9457 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9590 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the Swiss SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks, Retail Sales y/y and SVME PMI data that can change the rate of the pair.
    Support and Resistance
    (S3) 0.9445 (S2) 0.9486 (S1) 0.9512 (PP) 0.9554 (R1) 0.9595 (R2) 0.9621 (R3) 0.9663
    Trading Forecast
    Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9540 with Stop Loss 0.9590 and Take Profit at 0.9457 are recommended.

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  2. #12
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    EUR/USD Wave Analysis for September 3 - 2012 2012-09-03 5/5




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    EUR/USD Elliott Wave
    Last week the EUR/USD pair was trading in an upward move developing corrective (C) wave (coloured Green) of the bigger (4) wave (coloured orange). During the Friday European session, we could observe a strong ascending movement from 1.2493 towards the 1.2595 level. Therefore, during the early New York session the EUR/USD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and the price reached a new high at 1.2637 level and we can consider this move as the end of the 5 impulsive wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (C) wave (coloured green). At the moment the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.2570 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2000 this week. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring 1 wave, with Take Profit 1 at 1.1981 (138.2% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.1869. To reduce the risk, we can use the end of the 4 wave at 1.2637 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU Spanish Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI and ECB President Draghi Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
    Support and Resistance
    (S3) 1.2423 (S2) 1.2478 (S1) 1.2512 (PP) 1.2567 (R1) 1.2622 (R2) 1.2656 (R3) 1.2711
    Trading Forecast
    Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.2550 with Stop Loss 1.2637, Take Profit 1 1.1981 and Take Profit 2 at 1.1869 are recommended.

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  3. #13
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    EUR/ USD Movement Forecast for September 3, 2012 from 14:00 (+3 GMT) 2012-09-03 5/5




    Debriefing
    The release of strong economic data contributed negatively to technical analysis:
    -At 11:55 Moscow time the German PMI index for August was disclosed. The reading was 44.7 against the forecast of 45.1, the previous reading - 43.0.
    -At 12:00 Moscow time we will get the European PMI index for August. The indicator reached the level of 45.1 in contrast to expected 45.3, the previous reading – 44.0
    Taking this into account, the overall situation did not change. Until the price does not close the 1-hour candlestick below the 1.2558 level (the local low of this day), trend analysis will demonstrate an upward move,
    Monday is a bank holiday in the USA and Canada that is why financial markets are closed today in these countries. It means that since 16:30 Moscow time the market will be operating in a narrow range and any insignificant news may trigger the price move to any direction.
    Trend Analysis :
    The price has not broken the horizontal level of 1.2578 yet, but let me show you one interesting picture.
    On 12-hour chart (you can easily build this chart using InstaForex-5 demo version) the price has returned to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle after it broke through this pattern in upward direction. The price demonstrated by this that the mentioned above line turned to be the level of support and we observed the price hitting the support level for the 3d time (point �of symmetrical triangle). The third hitting of the support line gives us a positive probability of 70% for upward direction.
    Outcome: trend analysis signifies of the ascending tendency with the target of 1.2630 (the resistance line of week descending channel).





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    Chart. 1 (12-hour chart)

  4. #14
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    Silver Technical Levels and Trading Recommendatios for September 3, 2012 2012-09-03 0/5




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    Overview
    The H4 chart demonstrates today that silver takes an upward movement after bouncing from the Support level of 30.25. Presently silver is trading between the Support level of 31.25 and the Resistance level of 32.00. If silver continues the upward movement and manages to break this Resistance level, it will provide a good opportunity to buy above the Resistance level as well as make it possible to reach the Resistance level of 32.55 as the level target. After that we should wait for breaking out of this Resistance level to continue the bullish move. In case silver is able to break the Resistance level of 32.55 and close 4H above, we will get a bullish strength which will provide new buy signals and enable the Resistance level of 33.00 as a level target.
    On the other hand, if silver reverses its bullish move and takes a downward move after its rebound from the Resistance level of 32.00, it will be a strong indicator for the bearish move after closing 4H below the Support level 31.25 enabling the Support level 30.80. In this case we should wait for breaking this Support level to continue the bearish view. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide buy signals, but as long as the Resistance level 32.00 is unbroken, the downward move is still expected and invalidating the upward movement. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.


    Resistance and Support levels


    R3(33.00)
    R2(32.55)
    R1(32.00)


    S1(31.25)
    S2(30.80)
    S3(30.25)




    Trading Recommendations


    According to the previous analysis, we recommend buying in case of closing 4H above the Resistance level 32.00 with TP 32.50; SL closing 4H below the Resistance level might be appropriate.

  5. #15
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    GBP/JPY Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for September 3, 2012 2012-09-03 0/5




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    Overview


    Proceeding from today's H4 chart, the pair is still trading below the Resistance level of 124.50 and can't break it . If the pair takes an upward move and manages today to break this Resistance level and closes 4H above, we will receive a strong indicator for more bullish signals which will enable the Resistance level of 125.00 as the level target. Then we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the upward move and open the way towards the Resistance level of 125.50.
    On the other hand, if the pair fails to break the Resistance level of 124.50 and bounces from it, it may reverse the bullish move taking a downward move which will enable Support level of 123.75 again. Then we should wait for breaking this Support level in order to get new bearish signals. In case the pair is able to break the Support level and closes 4H below, we will get a bearish strength providing new sell signals which will enable the Support level of 123.20 as a level target. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide buy signals, but as long as the Resistance level 124.50 is unbroken, the downward move is still expected invalidating the bullish outlook. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.



    Resistance and Support Levels


    R3(125.50)
    R2(125.00)
    R1(124.50)

    S1(123.75)
    S2(123.20)
    S3(122.60)



    Trading Recommendations

    According to the previous analysis, we recommend buying after breaking the Resistance level 124.50 and closing 4H above with TP 125.15; SL closing 4 hours below the Resistance level will be appropriate.

  6. #16
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    GBP/USD Wave Analysis for September 3, 2012 2012-09-03 0/5




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    Wave Analysis:
    The GBP/USD pair started the Friday session with a rally until the publication of Ben Bernanke’s speech, having added about 120 points after that coming closer to 59 figure. After that the pair rebounded from this high which can be a sign (together with MACD indicator) that the second try to test 1.5900 level may result into market swing against the British pound in short term.
    Target for Down Wave (probably 3 or c):
    1.5858 – 23.6% Fibonacci
    1.5823 – 38.2% Fibonacci
    1.5795 – 50.0% Fibonacci
    Targets for Correctional Up-wave (probably 2 or b, it is possible that it has already come to an end):
    1.5886 – 11.4% Fibonacci
    Summary and Trading Recommendations:
    It is possible that now the pair continues its downtrend. The intermediate targets of the suggested decline are the levels of 1.5858, 1.5823, and 1.5795 which corresponds to 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% of Fibonacci in the terms of wave 3 or c. Until that we can see a re3bound in the terms of wave 2 or b (not necessary) to the level of 1.5886 and higher which is equal to 11.4% of Fibonacci. But it is most likely that the wave has already finished its formation. It should be noticed that ambiguousness of wave marking may result in its reconsideration. The uptrend channel still indicates the upward area, in case the price is below it, we will get a confirmation that the new downtrend , in particular wave 3 or c, is formed.

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  7. #17
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    NZD/USD Candlestick Analysis for September 3, 2012 2012-09-03 0/5


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    After NZD reached Fibonacci level of 50.0% against USD, the quotes demonstrated a reverse to the good of the kiwi dollar and grew significantly on Friday. As the result, we can regard this move as quotes’ rebound from correctional level of 50.0%, although any bullish candlestick formation was formed. Now we can expect the quotes growth towards Fibonacci level of 61.8% - 0.8081. However, the rebound from that level is also possible and if it happens, the pair may hit again 50.0% - 0.7963 Fibonacci. In case NZD/USD fixes above the correctional level of 61.8%, the pair will get a great opportunity to reach further 76.4% -0.8228 Fibonacci.



    4h


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    The same situation can be observed on 4-hour time frame. There is no any bullish candlestick formation, however, the pair demonstrated a swing (which was hard to foresee) and reached the correctional level of 76.4% - 0.8048 Fibonacci. Having returned to that level, the pair formed the bearish candlestick formation Top of Forceps. Taking this into account, we can suggest that the quotes may demonstrate a reverse near this level on Monday and resume their fall toward the correctional level of 61.8% - 0.7935. Until the pair is below the level of 76.4%, such outcome is most probable. In case the pair fixes above the correctional level of 76.4%, the pair will get a chance to continue its growth towards the correctional level of 100.0% - 0.8232.

  8. #18
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    EUR/USD. Forecast for September 3, 2012 2012-09-03 5/5




    It is a day off in the USA today. Indeed, the US markets deserve this holiday: Ben Bernanke gave an expected hint about the following QE. As the result, the Dow Jones index grew 0.69%, the European Stoxx600 gained 0.48%, gold was up 2.14%, oil lifted 2.05%, and the euro accumulated 70 points.
    Macroeconomic data from Europe was poor: the unemployment rate expanded by 0.1% from 11.2% up to 11.3%. The retail sales fell seasonally unadjusted 0.9% in Germany against the forecast of 0.2% expansion. Manufacturing orders demonstrated growth of 2.8% in the USA against expected 1.1%. It is obvious that American economy is in much better condition than the European one. China was showing really weak results during the last two month, but the Chinese government quickly announced about expansionary actions. Thus, the situation is getting better, though the pace of improvement is still slow. On the other hand, the Fed does not favor such situation.
    Today the head of the ECB will give a speech. Probably, he will welcome the investors’ optimism, although, while the legitimacy of the ESM is undecided, he cannot offer any concrete measures.
    At 12:00 Moscow time the Eurozone PMI index for August is expected. The revised data will likely be the same – 43.3.
    Target for growth is placed at 1.2636.





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    Yuriy Zaycev is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

  9. #19
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    EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-09-03 0/5




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    The spot rate broke on Friday the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 98.30 leading to an acceleration to the upper limit of this one at 99.00. It declined and tests now the intermediate support of its channel at 98.30 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and reach the lower limit of its channel at 97.80.
    Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the support is not broken, the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility. Furthermore, the inferior band strengthens the lower limit of the channel supporting the hypothesis of a return to these levels.

    As the spot rate approaches its support, we recommend 2 scenario: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we suggest a buy on the level of 98.30 with the 1st objective at 98.90 and then at 99.10. A breakthrough 97.10 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advice a “sell stop” which means selling the spot rate as soon as it i broken through its support of 98.30 with the 1st objective at 97.70 and then at 97.50. A breakthrough 98.50 will invalidate this scenario.

    Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

  10. #20
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    GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-09-03 0/5




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    Gold has is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 1,697 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will release a good potential and initiate a more violent bullish trend.

    Technical indicators provide sell signals and evolve in overbuy zone supporting the assumption of a decline. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of its channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.

    As gold is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest selling on the level of 1,697 with the 1st objective at 1,687 and then at 1,685. A breakthrough 1,700 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advice a “buy stop” which means buying the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,697 with the 1st objective at 1,707 and then at 1,710. A breakthrough 1,694 will invalidate this scenario.

    Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

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