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Thread: Daily Market Outlook

  1. #31
    jebat66 is offline Senior Member
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    GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-09-04 0/5




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    Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 1,698 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will release a good potential and initiate a more violent bullish trend.

    Technical indicators provide sell signals and evolve in overbuy zone supporting the assumption of a decline. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of its channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.

    As gold is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell at the level of 1,698 with the 1st objective at 1,687 and then at 1,685. A breakthrough of 1,701 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means buying the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,698 with the 1st objective at 1,708 and then at 1,710. A breakthrough of 1,695 will invalidate this scenario.

    Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.


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  2. #32
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    EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-09-04 0/5




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    As we predicted yesterday, the spot rate bounced off on the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 98.30 and approaches now the upper limit of its channel at 99.00 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate violent bullish channel.
    Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility. Furthermore, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of the channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.

    As the spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell on the level of 99.00 with the 1st objective at 98.40 and then at 98.20. A breakthrough of 99.20 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means buying the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 99.00 with the 1st objective at 99.60 and then at 99.80. A breakthrough of 98.80 will invalidate this scenario.

    Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.


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    InstaForex Companies Group 2007-2012

  3. #33
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    EUR/JPY Candlestick Analysis for September 4, 2012 2012-09-04 0/5


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    During the last week and during this Monday the pair rate does not show any movements on the intraday time frame. All candlesticks were opened and closed almost at the same level. As the result, despite some candlestick formations were finally built, the rate is still flat and Bearish Harami together with Bullish Absorption prove this best. Now the price may go up to the correctional level of 76.4% Fibpnacci – 100.44 and then initiate a decline towards 100.0% - 97.01. That is why we need to take into account the younger chart to define the end of the flat position.


    4h


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    On 4-hour time frame the situation is the same. The rate is placed between the correctional levels of 50.0% and 61.8%. On Monday after Bullish Absorption was built, the pair made a swing and hit again the Fibonacci level of 61.8% and then tried to fix above it. As the result, the rate can make a turn to the good of the Japanese yen and fall to the correctional level of 50.0% - 97.86. If the situation changes and the quotes will fix above the Fibonacci of 61.8%, the growth may extend towards the next correctional level of 76.4% - 99.83.



    Performed by Grigory Sokolov, Analytical expert
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  4. #34
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    EUR/USD Wave Analysis for September 4, 2012 2012-09-04 5/5




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    Wave Analysis:
    After Friday’s rally, the EUR/USD pair is flat again. The attempt to test 26 figure again did not add dynamics to the pair. It seems that the currency pair should finish building of the inner wave structure of wave 3 in 5. If it is so, the price will grow to the levels of 1.2640 – 1.2650 and may result in the rebound towards 1.2550.
    Targets for Down Wave 4 in 5:
    1.2557 – 11.4% Fibonacci
    1.2521 – 23.6% Fibonacci
    Targets for Wave 3 in 5:
    1.2613 – 200.0% Fibonacci
    1.2640 – 423.6% Fibonacci
    Summary and Trading Recommendations:
    The most probable outcome is the continuation of the uptrend which transformed into 5 wave. Wave 3 in 5 may resume the building of the uptrend area in the terms of which the rise towards 1.2613 and 1.2640 is most likely which is equal to 200.0% and 423.6% of Fibonacci. The uptrend channel indicates the ascending area of the, fixing below which will signify a stronger decline. After wave 3 in 5 is formed, the pair may begin the wave 4 in 5 (correctional) which may push the currency pair lower towards 1.2557 and 1.2521 which is equal to 11.4% and 23.6% of Fibonacci.

    Alexander Dneprovskiy is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.


    Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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  5. #35
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    GBP/USD. Forecast for September 4, 2012 2012-09-04 0/5




    Yesterday we received manufacturing PMI data which exceeded the expectations: 49.5 against 46.2. The British pound improved its positions significantly.
    This morning Australian current account balance for the second quarter was disclosed. It made up -11.8 bn against forecasted -12.3 bn.
    At 11:00 (GMT+3) Halifax house price index will be released. The analysts expect 0.3% growth against 0.6% fall in July.
    At 12:30 (GMT +3) we will get construction PMI for August. The forecast is 50.1 against 50.9 in July. At 18:00 (GMT +3) the USA will publish ISM manufacturing index for August (the experts anticipate 50.1 against 49.8 in July). Thus, the dynamics is still positive.
    Technically, after overcoming 1.5915, the next targets will be 1.5850 and 1.5984.






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    Yuriy Zaycev is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.


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  6. #36
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    EUR/JPY 04.09.12. Ichimoku Indicator- Technical Analysis 2012-09-04 0/5




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    Day
    We have not witnessed any significant changes on the day time frame. We are still in a sideways move. The break of the two weeks high will give a way to the week Kidjun. The bearish scenario was described yesterday.



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    H4

    We are testing now the trend and the middle lines of the rising channel. Ichimoku supports the bulls as we can see Golden Cross and Bullish Cloud, Chinoku is now in bullish area. We have to get through the resistance. Ichimoku targets cannot be seen on this chart.



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    �1
    Yesterday we broke through the cloudiness and changed the cross pattern. Now the indicator supports the bulls, but the target for cloud breakthrough is completed in full. However we failed to get through Chinoku that is why after quite long consolidation, we can start a descending movement to look for more reliable levels of support. Rely on more elder time frames.

    Legend:
    Ichimoku parameters – Hosoda standard 9.26.52.
    Short-term trend line – Tenkan – red
    Medium-term trend line – Kidjun – green
    Long-term trend line – Senoku Span � – blue
    Senoku Span A – pink, Chinoku – grey
    Fibo Kidjun lines – green dotted line

    Performed by Zhizhko Nadezhda, Analytical expert
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  7. #37
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    AUD/USD Wave Analysis for September 4 - 2012 2012-09-04 0/5




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    AUD/USD Elliott Wave
    Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move, like we expected, developing corrective wave (A) (coloured green) of the bigger wave (E) (coloured orange). Yesterday during the early Asian session we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.0240 level. Therefore, during the European and New York sessions the AUD/USD pair continued trading in a bearish mood and the price reached 1.0230 level. At the moment this currency pair is trading around 1.0245 level and we are expecting to see it around 0.9800 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave E retraces 61.8% of the wave C, we can define the potential targets measuring wave C, with Take Profit 1 at 0.9974 (50% of wave C) and Take Profit 2 at 0.9824 (61.8% of wave C). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1.0375 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the AUD Current Account, Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement and U.S. Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales data that can change the rate of the pair.
    Support and Resistance
    (S3) 1.0192 (S2) 1.0218 (S1) 1.0233 (PP) 1.0259 (R1) 1.0285 (R2) 1.0300 (R3) 1.0326
    Trading Forecast
    Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0230 with Stop Loss 1.0375 ,Take Profit at 0.9974 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9824 are recommended.

    Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.


    Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
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  8. #38
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    GOLD Wave Analysis for September 4 - 2012 2012-09-04 0/5




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    GOLD Elliott Wave
    For the last few weeks gold was trading in a strong upward move, developing impulsive (3) wave (coloured green) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured orange). Yesterday during the Asian and European session we could observe the price trading in a sideways move developing final 5 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). Therefore, during the New York session this commodity started pushing higher and the price reached 1694.35 level. At the moment gold is trading around 1689.40 level and we are expecting to see the price lower today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 100% of the wave 2, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 2, with Take Profit at 1663.00 (100% of wave 2). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1696.45 level as Stop Loss.
    Support and Resistance
    (S3) 1678.1 (S2) 1682.8 (S1) 1688.9 (PP) 1693.6 (R1) 1699.7 (R2) 1704.4 (R3) 1710.5
    Trading Forecast
    Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1688.60 with Stop Loss 1696.45 and Take Profit at 1663.00 are recommended.

    Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.


    Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group 2007-2012

  9. #39
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    Daily Trading Forecasts (September 4, 2012) 2012-09-04 5/5


    Now let’s see the recent developments within the markets:

    EURUSD: Despite what is happening right now, the bias on this pair remains bullish. The price is currently above the SMA 21 as the Stochastic itself is heading upwards. As long as the price stays above the SMA, the bullish propensity is valid.



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    USDCHF: Here too, the USDCHF pair is in a downtrend: it is under the SMA 21 as the Stochastic is heading downwards. Only a break of the price above the SMA could render this scenario as invalid. The nearest resistance is at 0.9550.



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    GBPUSD: This pair is winding its way upwards, although, with considerable difficulties. The bulls could experience some challenges as the price is near the resistance level at 1.5900. The Williams’ % range is in the overbought region, i.e. above -20. No wonder the price is experiencing some difficulties right now.



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    EURJPY: This market has been flat so far, although it is consolidating to the upside. The Williams’ % range is hovering around the overbought territory as the resistance lines at 99.00 pose a threat to further bullish pressure. The nearest support line is at 98.50.






    USDJPY: The price for this instrument is currently weak, since it is clearly in a downward bias. The EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the downside as the price attempts to find some bottom. If the resistance zone at 78.50 proves to be effective, especially in the near-term, it would cause further bearish move.



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    Performed by Azeez Mustapha, Analytical expert
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  10. #40
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    EUR/USD. Forecast for September 4, 2012 2012-09-04 0/5




    At 13:00 (+3 GMT) we are waiting for the Eurozone PPI for July. Analysts forecasted 0.3% growth against 0.5% fall in June.
    At 18:00 The US ISM manufacturing index will be released. The economists are anticipating the indicator to hit 50.1 against 49.8 in July. Thus, positive mood will be supported until Thursday when the ECB will announce its decision on monetary policy. The Bank is working on it so hard that regulator’s representatives failed to visit the conference in Jackson Hole. Also Germany’s finance minister Wolfgan Schauble has expressed confidence that Germany’s highest court will not rule against Germany participation in the ESM.
    Price fixation above the downward trend line (which was built by highs of October 27, 2012 and May 1, 2012 0 1.2630, red thick line) will be of much significance. Such outcome will indicate the end og bearish trend which started a year ago. The nearest target after the breakout is 1.2630 – 1.2670 which is also has a great importance and marked on the chart. The further target will be placed at 1.2718.






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    Yuriy Zaycev is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.


    Performed by Yuriy Zaycev, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group 2007-2012

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