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Thread: Daily Market Outlook

  1. #5011
    jebat66 is offline Senior Member
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    (Reuters) - The annual inflation rate in Europe's largest economy probably picked up in April, potentially raising the euro zone figure and reducing pressure on the European Central Bank to act, data suggested on Tuesday.

    Euro zone inflation is running at 0.5 percent and concerns about deflation are rife. Data due out on Wednesday is expected to show inflation in the single currency bloc picking up to 0.8 percent in April but that would still be below the ECB's medium-term target of just below 2 percent.

    On Monday ECB President Mario Draghi played down the likelihood of any imminent money-printing to buy assets, saying that while low inflation would persist, quantitative easing remained a way off, according to a source.

    Data from some German states suggested the ECB would not need to take action. In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany's most populous state and traditionally a bellwether for the national data, the cost of living rose by 1.7 percent on the year in April, compared with 1.4 percent in March.

    Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank, said figures from the states suggested Germany's national inflation rate increased by 0.3 or 0.4 percentage points in April.

    "That's also a bit of a precursor for tomorrow's euro zone inflation rate which could then rebound quite nicely," he said.

    ECB President Vitor Constancio said on Monday April's inflation figures for the euro zone should not alone trigger a policy change because "it's not just one or two numbers that matter".

    Pan-German inflation figures are due to be published at 1200 GMT, with economists polled by Reuters forecasting a 1.4 percent increase in consumer prices after a 1.0 percent rise the previous month.

    Schulz said the German data had been volatile in March and April due to the Easter weekend being much later this year than last, postponing price effects on items like package holidays.

    "Inflation is likely to rebound with the April data. If you look at the March and April average it may still be slightly below where we were in February but not significantly, not enough to trigger more monetary policy action in May," he said.

    "I think the June meeting is more likely for additional easing because then we'll have less distorted may inflation rate."

    (Reporting by Michelle Martin; editing by Erik Kirschbaum/Jeremy Gaunt)

  2. #5012
    jebat66 is offline Senior Member
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    European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told German lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program isnít imminent and is relatively unlikely for now, according to a euro-area official present at the meeting.

    The central bank stands ready to embark on QE if needed, Draghi said at the gathering attended by lawmakers from parties that form the nationís coalition government, the official told reporters yesterday. The person declined to be identified because the meeting in Koenigswinter, Germany, was private.

    Draghi has said he is considering unprecedented measures from negative interest rates to QE to avert the risk of deflation as he guides the euro area through a gradual economic recovery. Government and central-bank officials in Germany, the regionís largest economy, have been among the strongest opponents of his more radical policies amid concern the ECB will overstep its mandate.

  3. #5013
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    South Korea Current Account Surplus $7.35 Billion


    South Korea saw an unadjusted current account surplus of $7.35 billion in March, the Bank of Korea said on Tuesday.That's up from the $4.52 billion surplus on February and the $3.61 billion surplus in January.
    The financial account recorded a net outflow of 5.78 billion dollars, down from 6.92 billion dollars the previous month.
    Seasonally adjusted, the current account surplus was $6.65 billion - down from $7.57 billion in February.

    News are provided by InstaForex.

  4. #5014
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    Daily Market Report for 29 April 2014: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Decision Could Hurt Gold Price This Week

    Economic Insights

    Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan’s decisions this week is unlikely to surprise the market

    Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are escalating once more. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin had warned Ukraine against continuing the anti-separatist offensive that killed five rebels. This week, representatives of the 28 European Union nations will meet to impose new sanctions on Russian companies and individuals close to the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    In the face of escalating tensions, two assets have been rising – the Japanese Yen and gold. A clue can be seen from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Last week, futures traders decreased their bets that Yen will decline against the greenback. The differences in the numbers of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in Yen compared with those on a gain – so-called net shorts – was down to 67,243 compared with net shorts of 68,716 a week earlier. This tells us that more money managers are betting on Yen to rise.

    The trend was similar in gold.

    The net-long position in gold rose up 0.5% to 90,572 futures and options, the first increase since 18th March. The increase snapped a four-week retreat that was the longest in 2014. Gold has experienced wild swings since the Russia-Crimea saga started. When Russia annexed Crimea last month, gold climbed to a six-month high, touching a price of USD1391.97 an ounce on 17th March. However, it fell almost 9% thereafter on signs that peace would return.

    The “red herring” that could deter continued gains in gold and Yen would be the policy meetings by the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week. Here’s why.

    Federal Reserve (Fed)

    The Fed meets is on the 29th and 30th April this week. There’s a high chance that the central bank will cut the monthly asset purchases by another USD10 billion down to USD45 billion. The policymakers are expected to continue tapering at that pace until ending the program at its meeting on the 28th-29th October. If the Fed does taper this week, the US dollar would receive an uplift. The knee-jerk reaction would then cause gold to fall because gold and the US dollar tend to move in the opposite directions.

    Bank of Japan (BOJ)

    Yen demands may be limited this week as traders sit on the side-lines and await the decisions from the central bank’s policy meeting. This will be Japan’s first monetary policy meeting since the consumption tax hike in April. BOJ has delivered unprecedented stimulus to the economy in the last two years, pledging to double base money via aggressive asset purchases to accelerate consumer inflation to 2 %.

    I expect BOJ to keep its monetary policy steady this week and only step up the stimulus in the second half of the year to offset the negative drag on the economy from the tax increase. However, there is a slight possibility for BOJ to announce additional stimulus this week if figures are not up to their expectations.

    I have learnt over the years that it is better to stand prepared and react to any surprise announcements from the central bankers, rather than jump the gun and pay for it with my trading account.

  5. #5015
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 30, 2014



    Today's Support and Resistance levels: R3: 1.6217 R2: 1.6196 R1: 1.6175
    Current spot: 1.6120 S1: 1.6097 S2: 1.6057 S3: 1.6000
    Technical summary: It is still an open question whether we only have seen a correction from 1.5766 or we are at the beginning of an impulsive rally of this low. The big question is whether the overlapping structure from 1.5837 is a leading diagonal as blue wave i or it is an ending diagonal as red wave c. The complication from this two outcomes will be completely different. If it is an ending diagonal, we will see a new low below 1.5766 likely closer to 1.5566 to end the entire decline from 1.6787. However, if it is a leading diagonal, we should only see a move towards 1.6004 before the next impulsive rally higher sets in. This next rally will break above strong resistance at 1.6325 without much trouble for a continuation higher towards 1.6731. We prefer the bearish count slightly above the bullish count, only time will tell us which count is the correct one.
    Trading recommendation: Our stop at 1.6200 was hit for a small profit. We will sell EUR at 1.6195 with a stop and revers at 1.6295

  6. #5016
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 30, 2014



    Today's support and resistance levels: R3: 141.80 R2: 141.69 R1: 141.47
    Current Spot: 141.31 S1: 140.99 S2: 140.60 S3: 140.37 Technical summary: Red wave ii ended exactly at the 70.7% corrective target at 142.47 and the decline from 142.47 does look impulsive. We will now be looking for minor resistance at 141.47 to protect the upside for a decline towards at least 140.90 and we are likely to see an extension lower towards 140.35 before the next minor consolidation will be seen. At this point on a break above 141.80 will frustrate the overall bearish count.
    Trading recommendation: Stay short EUR from 141.68 and move your stop lower to 142.50. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 141.47 with the same stop at 142.50.

  7. #5017
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    Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for April 30, 2014 2014-04-30 5/5






    AUD/USD Elliott Wave Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair has been trading upwards, impulsive wave (i) (coloured blue) of the bigger wave [v] (coloured green) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart above, we can observe that ascending movements from the 0.9223 level has found resistance at the 0.9295 level. We are going to look at this move as the end of the impulsive wave i of (i), and while the price remains above the 0.9223 low, we are going to look for more buying positions in this major pair. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [iii] should extend 161.8% of wave [i], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [i] with take profit at 0.9368 (161.8% of wave [i]). Support and Resistance (S3) 0.9182, (S2) 0.9204, (S1) 0.9236, (PP) 0.9258, (R1) 0.9290, (R2) 0.9312, (R3) 0.9344. Trading forecast Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9280 with stop loss at 0.9223 take profit at 0.9368 are recommended. Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him. Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2014


  8. #5018
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    Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for for April 30, 2014 2014-04-30 0/5






    USD/CAD Elliott Wave From the early start of this week, the USD/CAD pair has been trading downwards, impulsive wave [i] (coloured green) of the bigger wave C (coloured red) has been developing. In the 90-minutes chart of the pair above, we can see that the price has retraced towards the 50% of the previous upwards cycle from the 1.0853 level, just like we expected, but since the move looks impulsive, we are going to change and focus on the selling opportunities in the pair right now. While the price remains below 1.1053, we are going to watch for the pullback in the wave [ii] to enter a short position. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [iii] should extend 161.8% of wave [i], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [i] with take profit at 1.0788 (161.8% of wave [i]). Support and Resistance (S3) 1.0828, (S2) 1.0885, (S1) 1.0915, (PP) 1.0972, (R1) 1.1002, (R2) 1.1059, (R3) 1.1089. Trading forecast Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 1.1010 with stop loss at 1.1050 and take profit at 1.0788 are recommended. Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him. Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2014


  9. #5019
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    Gold technical analysis for April 30, 2014

    Gold price remains weak. The trend remains down. Price has managed to make an upward bounce but with no real progress as the price got rejected just below the downward sloping red trend line. As long as Gold price remains below this trend line, I prefer short positions



    The price is still stalling inside the Ichimoku cloud in the short-term chart as shown above. Support is found at $1,285-$1,280. Breaking below that level will push Gold price to $1,269 and will most probably break it and move towards $1,250.



    The trend is down. A daily close below $1,275 will confirm we are heading towards $1,250 first and $1,200. Gold price could continue to trade sideways above the $1,275 blue support trend line and eventually re-test the Ichimoku cloud at $1,305. Long-term trend remains bearish. Short-term stop for bears is $1,300. Longer-term stop for bears is $1,391.


  10. #5020
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    Technical analysis of Gold for April 30, 2014


    Technical outlook and chart setups: 1. Gold is seen to be pulling back from the intermediary resistance line passing around $1,300.00 levels for now. A drop below $1,270.00 would drag prices towards $1,230.00/40.00. Meanwhile, a break higher should take it higher towards $1,330.00. At the moment, recommendations are to remain flat. 2. Support is seen at $1,270.00, followed by $1,230.00/40.00, $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,330.00, followed by $1,388.00 and higher respectively. 3. The structure indicates that Gold needs to push through $1,330.00 levels to confirm that bulls are to remain in control.
    Trading recommendations: Remain flat for now. Or long 50%, with stop at $1,230.00/40.00 (aggressive setup). Good luck!

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