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Thread: Fresh Forecast

  1. #11
    orni308 is offline Senior Member
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    gold has been on a negative direction this week, it might be a good time for a buy.

  2. #12
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    Will Federal Reserve cut the Q3 again?
    Euro


    As we remember last trading week Draghi said that if the inflation in the EU stays for a long period the European regulator may start the program of quantitative softening.


    The ECB left interest rates at the lowest level of 0.25 % and it does not plan to raise it in the near future. At the same time we highlight the employment data in the U.S., which showed an increase of 192 thousand in March. Taking into the consideration this data for the previous months we conclude that the decrease in the number of unemployed rate in the beginning of this year was only temporary.
    If the pair goes down its primary goal will be the mark 1.3560. The level 1.3640 breakthrough is the single condition for this step.

  3. #13
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    Weekly review of three pairs
    EUR/USD



    Monthly chart: An ill-defined reaction of April to March pin makes us doubt it has a good outlook. Besides, we see a strong trend activity of ADX, therefore, there is a great probability of attacking 1.4034 with a further movement to a middle-term space to 1.4964. Support by the middle Bollinger band (1.3249) must be pointed out. Any movement down to this point won't break ascending structure.

    Weekly chart: the last week was finished by a very narrow inside bar. Support is located at 1.3715, from this point bulls can develop an attack to 1.4034. Decline below 1.3715 makes plan with movement to 1.3249 real.

    Day chart: the pair had been under sales within the last 2 weeks, which is seen due to 2 bearish pins coming one after one. Bollinger enevlopes are getting narrow speaking about coming impulse movement. Support 1.3715 also seems confirmed and important from a diagnostic point of view.

    conclusion: so, main plan is growth to 1.4034, following to a possible touch of 1.3715. Another option is the break of 1.3715 and decline to 1.3249.

  4. #14
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    Forecast of AUD/USD


    Monthly chart: so, a strong rolling swing upwards is completed, its pike is bearish pinbar. It is a very strong Southern determination and, besides, it is correct in technical point of view. Therefore, a major middle-term expectation is start of decline down to 0.84 (the bottom Bollinger band). The point where such expectations may break is the breakthrough above the middle Bollinger band (0.9625).

    Weekly chart: here we see development of reversal following to bullish convergence. Key resistance point is 0.9625. Here growth scenario is the main point (marked by blue arrow), but the situation on the monthly chart tells us that start of a new downward wave (red arrow) is equally probable. The middle Bollinger band (0.9059) performs as the key supportive point.


    Day chart: a strong pinbar from the supportive bottom Bollinger band (0.9208) is seen here, which is a very good sign for purchases. Another option is the break under the bottom, break of pinbar and decline.

    Conclusion: main scenario is growth from 0.9208 to the area 0.9625 Another option is getting under 0.92 and decline to 0.8650.

  5. #15
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    S&P500, oil and platinum. Weekly review
    S&P500

    Monthly chart: bulls continue to put a pressure, but in general uptrend looks like almost fully exhausted. Key resistance is based on 2050,7, from where reversal or a significant correction will take place with a high probability.

    Weekly chart: oscillator's divergence confirms that reversal is close to come. Nevertheless, we are waiting for new highs to be reached before.

    Day chart: divergence is also strong here, besides, resistance from the upper Bollinger band (1991.4) is still working. Support is based at 1956.6 ( bottom Bollinger band).

    Conclusion: main scenario is descend from current levels to 1956.6 and a further growth to1991.4. Another option is the direct growth to 2050.7

  6. #16
    orni308 is offline Senior Member
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    Gold prices seems to pick up a little bit more, rising disturbances i Ukraine and middle east being one of the reason for its boost.

  7. #17
    Tint is offline Member
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    (1,3420) The EUR/USD is confirming a nice rebound that already favoured a retest of the 1,3430/40 area where we expect good resistance and from where we could see a retracement toward the 200 hours line, now found at 1,3393. The holding of this line will favour another test on the upside suggesting a retest of the 1,35 area where we suggest selling going again short!!
    Resistance 1.3345 1.3510
    Support 1.3390 1.3360

  8. #18
    Tint is offline Member
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    The EUR/USD formed a positive day reversal closing even well above the opening. A daily closing tonight above 1,3211 will confirm a s/t bottom supporting higher levels. The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative but recovering while those of the s/t ones are already well positive supporting further s/t strength with the 200 hours line at 1,3258 the possible attraction. The return above 1,32 completed a small reversed S_H_S formation supporting a possible move up. We wait for higher levels to sell but only above 1,33!!
    Resistance 1.3245 1.3330
    Support 1.3165 1.3100

  9. #19
    Tint is offline Member
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    EURUSD failed last night to confirm the previous days’ positive day reversal suggesting further weakness, especially while below the 200 days line, now found at 1,1115!!
    The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative for now while those of the s/t charts are instead still showing a mixed picture suggesting further consolidation/ correction. Further bullish divergences are still supporting a negative tone. Still only an hourly closing above 1,1080 will postpone further weakness favouring a higher retracement with the 200 hours line at 1,1209 the possible attraction!!
    A break below 1,1000 will instead resume the decline suggesting a s/t target at 1,0802!!
    I stay on the sideline for now and wait the FOMC meetings’ report.

  10. #20
    Tint is offline Member
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    The EURUSD plunged lower after the FEDs’ comments breaking below a further support line, now resistance at 1.0955. if last nights’ closing will further confirmed in the coming few sessions expect a return toward 1,05!!
    The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative for now as well as those of the s/t charts supporting further weakness. Bullish divergences even in the 4h chart are supporting a negative tone. Possible rebounds should find resistance at 1,0990 while the 200 hours line is found only at 1,1164!!

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