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Thread: Fresh Forecast

  1. #1
    Natalya is offline Junior Member
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    Default Fresh Forecast

    Hello,

    We are glad to introduce you to the market reviews
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  2. #2
    xshot007 is offline Junior Member
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    I'm interesting about this thread. When it will update?

  3. #3
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    Weekly sketches for 3 pairs
    EUR/USD


    Monthly chart: ADX is close to the point "30", wherein a main trend potential of price movement starts to be manifested. Thus, taking into account a new high reached by bulls, we assume that on completion of a descending swing, Euro uptrend will go on with the same target as earlier at 1.4260.
    Weekly chart: closeness of two supportive points 1.3508 and 1.3298. One of them is supposed to provide a strong demand in European currency. Any break of uptrend can only be considered below 1.3107.
    Daily chart: here we see a well-formed Over&Under, thus, a main plan would be a deep rollback to 1.3298. Entrance area into sales on this setup is 1.38.

  4. #4
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    Swings of the Forex market are still in motion!
    Review of the past week


    The past week on the currency market was very eventful. According to its results, US dollar lost the part of its positions as compared to its main rivals. The last meeting of EuCB did not bring surprises. Monetary policy remained on the same level, regulator stated that it is still concerned with low inflation, but will not take any measures as of now.


    On Friday the report on US labor market was released. Non-Farm payroll release is very controversial. Despite strong figures from ADP as well as the service index of employment from ISM, final Non-Farm was released on the point of 74 000 having demonstrated the least value for the last 2,5 years. Nevertheless, totalunemployment level is reduced by 0.3 down to the level of 6.7%. Trade week was finished by Usd/Eur by growth up to the point of 1.3668.


    Great Britain reported negative macroeconomic stats. Service PMI frustrated investors having shows the least values for the last 6 years. Also, trade balance and manufacture data was negative. Further to releases, GBP/USD quotations went down, but investors promptly re-bought this decline which says about strength of ascending trend. In general, a steady growth of GBP/USD pair had been witnessed over the week.


    Full attention of investors was focused on the US data. Recordings of the last FRS meeting did not bring serious changes in “bulls” and “bears” alignment. American regulator stated that it expects a gradual tapering of stimulative measures and decisions will be made based in the view of situation with the labor market and inflation. On the last trading day labor market release was published n the USA. Unemployment level got down, but Non-Farm Payrolls data poured oil into the fire. Quotations managed to grow up to the point of 105.32 and fell by 150 points then. So, trading week was closed by USD/JPY just above 104.

  5. #5
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    USD/JPY: meeting of Bank of Japan is in the focus
    Review of the past week

    The last week on the currency market showed consolidation of the US currency against its major competitors. As German GDP data for 2013 was weak and the US inflation report was moderately positive, united European currency got under pressure. Economic growth in one of the leading European economy – Germany – demonstrates decline 3 years in succession, which one more time confirms accuracy of Mario Drahgi's expectations about a weak growth of European economy within nearest few years. A moderate growth of the US CPI and PPI increased the number of supporters of tapering of stimulative measures which will be demonstrated at the FOMC meeting on January 29. All these facts worked in favor of bears and having lost 139 points for the week Eur/Usd pair finished week's trades at the point of 1.3539.

    GBP/USD quotations had been declining from Monday to Thursday on the background of week inflation data in Great Britain. But strong Friday's report on retails allowed “cable” to cut the distance between this currency and USD. Growth of retails in 2013 was the most significant over the last 9 years. Positive news background on the last trading day allowed British currency to close the week with minor damages on the level of 1.6423.

    For the last week, USD/JPY currency pair added 0.3%. Japan did not publish any important macroeconomic stats. Negative background for the Japanese currency is formed by investors' s expectations regarding further tapering of stimulative measures in the USA and enhancement of quantitative softening in Japan. Any strong correction of USD/JPY pair is followed by growth of quotations which speaks for a strength of ascending trend.

  6. #6
    mdarif is offline Junior Member
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    I already very good serves,....

  7. #7
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    Time is ripe to sell EUR/USD
    Review of the past week


    Since the last week was the first week of the month, it was traditionally eventful. According to its results, EUR/USD pair consolidated for 1.1% as ECB governor was positive in his comments and labor market report in the USA was weak. Mario Drahgi continues to surprise market with his optimism. On Thursday 6, while speaking in the ECB meeting, he stated that deflation does not threat Europe now and there is no sense to apply measures to cope with it now. Investors were encouraged by this statement and EUR/USD went above 36.


    On the last trading day of the week, release on the US labor market was published. January growth of Non-Farm payrolls was 113 000, which is rather below the figure of consensus-forecast. For the second month in a row, US employers are at an easy pace when it comes to hiring. This is an alarm bell for the US economy and served a background for growth of the European currency. Week's trades were closed at the point of 1.3634. In the fight of bulls and bears on GBP/USD pair there is no winner. Over the past week, Markit Economics research center had been releasing PMI for manufacture and construction as well as for the service sector. Amongst all, only construction report was a good surprise for investors wherease two other were below expectations. This negative background encouraged bears who forced quotations down to 1.6251.


    Bulls also paid back in their own coin and got out the most of the weak US Non-Farm payrolls report by raising quotations above 64. Nevertheless, in the end of the week GBP/USD lost its symbolical 0.1% and finished at 1.6407.


    Japanese Yen followed its upsurge in January and early February by retreat. Only the first trading day of the week was marked by its consolidation against its US rival as sales on leading global stock exchanges was going on. On Wednesday 5, the report on change in salary for December was published. The figure was above consensus-forecast which supported demand in Japanese currency in the first half of a day. Salary growth will provoke increase of expenses in the future and thus enhancement of inflation. On this background, USD/JPY dropped down to 100.77, but bears were not strong enough to get more. Then bulls joined the game who were not discouraged by weak report on the US Non-Farm payrolls in January. Having added 0.3% for the weak, trades were closed at the point of 102.35.

  8. #8
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    Weekly review of three major pairs
    EUR/USD


    Monthly chart: the pair is on the way to Bollinger's upper band (1.3931) and bulls do not have any potential for a further break, because ADX did not exceed "30".

    Thus, a main strategic scenario is a bounce down from 1.3931 and movement to the area of Bollinger's medium band (1.3139).
    Weekly chart: a long consolidation inside of the ascending triangle is coming to an end. In all likelihood, this accumulation will be continued this week as well, because ADX did not turn its full potential on. Support is on the middle (1.3605), resistance is on the upper band (1.38).
    Conclusion: a main scenario is the flat within 1.36-1.38. Another option is the break above 1.38, movement to 1.3931 and a bounce down in the direction of 1.36.

  9. #9
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    The dollar falls in the light of rising oil prices
    The weather can distract players from Ukraine and China. The weather peak is expected on Tuesday, when the first of the four central banks is planning to organize the meeting - the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce changes in its monetary policy. The Bank of Canada will hold a meeting on Wednesday, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will meet on Thursday. Carl Weinberg, the chief international economist of High Frequency Economics in New York, suspects that all four central banks are "largely paralyzed and will not change its monetary policy."


    The ECB as the Central Bank " may surprise us as the ECB is in uncharted waters now. While "no one can predict how ECB will react ", HFE expects that the bank's policy is likely to remain unchanged.


    We expect a number of important news from the USA this week. The market's attention will be riveted on Monday to ISM manufacturing index for February release, the ISM index for the services sector and the February employment report publication on Friday.


    The euro closed Friday at the 1.3807 that is at the upper range of the last week from the 1.3643 (Thursday) to the 1.3824 (Friday). The pair shot upwards after Friday’s preliminary data on inflation in the euro-zone, which raised questions about the prospect of the ECB monetary policy easing this week.

  10. #10
    Volkov Yuriy Guest

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    The market holds its positions
    Euro

    The Eurozone will publish the final consumer price index data for February. There are no prerequisites for the revision indicator upward, therefore, the release of data on the level of consensus- forecast is expected. Everyone expects full-scale geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine which can put pressure on a risky assets.
    The support levels: 1.3910-1.3860, and the resistance levels: 1.3914-1.3980.
    MACD is turned up, indicating on the current uptrend, if the indicator is developed downward, it can start a downward movement turn.
    Trading Recommendations
    Generally, the situation remains positive. Nevertheless, fundamentally, it is difficult to find a good reason for buying the single currency. That’s why it’s not the fact that the pair will move above 1.3937-1.3966.
    The loss of the support in the 1.3845-1.3833 will lead to a fall down to 1.3740.

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