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  1. #1
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    Smile AcetraderFx May 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    06 May 2014 02:47GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.3880.. The European Commission (EC) gave a downbeat assessment of the eurozone in its spring forecast on Mon n traders' reaction after reading the report wud be selling the eur/gbp cross.

    Bloomberg reported The European Commission predicted on Mon low inflation will remain a threat to euro-area expansion for at least the next 2 years as it trimmed its economic-growth forecast n warned of the impact of tensions with Russia.

    The euro zone's inflation rate will be 0.8% this year n 1.2% in 2015, both lower than forecast in Feb n well below the ECB's target of just below 2%. EZ GDP is projected to rise 1.7% in 2015, compared with the commission's previous forecast of 1.8%.

    Commission VP Siim Kallas told reporters in Brussels "Price pressures are expected to remain subdued as we expect energy prices to continue to decline n as demand is only gradually firming n unemployment is still high." He added "When we consider what are the main risks for the European economy at this stage, the one main risk is clearly the external tensions n uncertainty which surrounds us, especially related to the crisis in Ukraine.


    02:22GMT
    EUR/USD - 1.3877 ... The single currency traded inside a narrow range of 1.3865-1.3890 on Monday due to holidays in Japan and Britain. Trading is expected to be thin also in Asia today until European open as Italy, France, Germany n eurozone will release their services PMI at 07:45GMT, 07:50GMT, 07:55GMT n 08:00GMT respectively.

    Market players shud pay attention to the release of eurozone retail sales data at 09:00GMT. The retail sales is expected to decrease by 0.6% m/m in March versus the previous reading of 0.4% m/m increase.

  2. #2
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    Smile AceTraderFX May 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD USD/JPY

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    19 May 2014 01:06GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.3701
    A piece of important w/end news worth noting. Reuters, together with our media reported ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet will recommend that the bank cut its main refinancing rate to a record low 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent at its policy meeting on Jun 5, according to the German magazine Der Spiegel.

    Praet is also expected to recommend the introduction of a negative rate on bank deposits for the first time, Der Spiegel reported on Sun, without citing a source.

    USD/JPY - 101.55
    Japanese gov't. official says : machinery orders rise at fastest pace since comparable data available fm fiscal year 2005.
    Japan's Mar monthly & year-on-year machinery order surged to 19.1% n 16.1% respectively, way abv market consensus of 6.0% & 4.2% respectively, however, dlr has shown muted reaction to the data.

    The ECB declined to comment. Last week Reuters reported that the ECB was preparing a package of policy options for its June meeting, including cuts in all interest rates.

    Five people familiar with the measures being prepared described plans involving a potential rate cut, including the ECB's deposit rate going negative for the first time, along with measures targeting small n mid-size companies.

    Data to be released on Monday :

    New Zealand PPI input, PPI output, U.K. Rightmove house prices, Japan machine tool orders,, euro zone construction output. Market in Canada will be closed due to Victoria/Patriots' Day.

  3. #3
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    Smile AceTraderFx Jun 30: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

    30 Jun 2014
    02:35GMT

    EUR/USD - ... The single currency maintained a firm undertone after rising to 1.3650 on Friday n bids are now located at 1.3640-30 n more at 1.3620-10 with stops only seen below 1.3600. On the upside, some stops are tipped abv 1.3650 n 1.3655.

    Bloomberg news reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, in a telephone call lasting more than two hours, told Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine chief Petro Poroshenko to start peace talks and reminded them of a looming deadline for Kremlin action.

    In other news, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said in its annual report released earlier that loose monetary policy makes it easy for euro-area banks to keep bad debt on their books, potentially delaying the flushing out of sour loans.

    Last Friday, statement from France's Hollande said, qoute:
    'will hold phone talks with Germany's Merkel, Ukraine's Poroshenko, Russia's Putin on Sunday; EU will take more measures if no progress on Ukraine by Sunday.'

    Also, statement from German Chancellor Angela Merkel qoute:
    'progress made on Ukraine peace process is not satisfactory; if no progress made on any of the points of Ukraine peace plan then we are prepared to take severe measures.'


    Data to be release next week:

    Japan industrial output, construction orders, housing starts, Germany retail sales, Italy producer prices, consumer prices preliminary, CPI, U.K. mortgage approvals, mortgage lending, euro zone inflation, Canada GDP, U.S. Chicago PMI, pending home sales on Monday.

    Japan Tankan, China NBS manufacturing PMI, HSCB manufacturing PMI, Japan manufacturing PMI, Australia RBA rate decision, Switzerland PMI, Italy Markit/ADACI manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, unemployment change, euro zone Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending on Tuesday.

    Australia exports, imports, trade balance, U,K. Nationwide house price, Markit/CIPS construction PMI, euro zone producer prices, U.S. ADP employment, durable goods revised, factory orders, Canada manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.

    China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, HSBC service PMI, Australia building approvals, retails sales, France Markit/ABACI service PMI, Fracne Markit service PMI, Germany Markit service PMI, euro zone Markit service PMI, retails sales, ECB rate decision, U.K. Markit/CIPS service PMI, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, jobless claims, average earnings, trade balance, Markit service PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

    Germany industrial orders, U.K. Halifax house prices, U.S. markets closed for July 4 Independence Day holiday on Friday.

  4. #4
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    Smile AceTraderFx Jul 4: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

    04 Jul 2014
    02:13GMT

    EUR/USD - ... Despite yesterday's brief bounce to 1.3664 at European open, renewed selling interest there knocked price lower n euro nose-dived to an intra-day low at 1.3596 after dovish comments from ECB's president Draghi who said that take-up of the TLTRO could reach EUR 1 trillion. Selling interest is now tipped at 1.3620-25 n more at 1.3635-40. On the downside, mixture of bids n stops is located at 1.3600 but some bids are noted at 1.3580-75.

    ECB's Draghi announced that starting January 2015, the ECB will reduce the frequency of its policy meetings to every 6 weeks, allowing for the publication of minutes a few weeks later. He added that studies on ABS have intensified but stressed the need for unanimity among council members about the possible use of non-standard measures.

    On the data front, Germany will release its industrial orders at 06:00GMT.


    Yesterday, ECB's Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said, quote: 'only way to move from current low interest rates is to reinvigorate euro zone's productive potential; govts should not view period of low rates as an invitation to abandon fiscal prudence; states should stick to rules of new EU fiscal framework, not stretch these to point where framework is discredited; confident euro zone banks with strong business models will make full use of TLTROS.'

    Quoting the statement from ECB's policymaker Jens Weidmann :'ultra-loose monetary policy leads, over time, to financial stability risks; concerned that low rates are easing pressure on govts to reform, consolidate budgets; important to stress that ECB will not delay a normalisation of monetary policy out of regard for state finances; for the euro zone, monetary policy has made its contribution to deliver price stability; will take a while for June policy measures to take full effect; I regard it as wrong to speculate about further measures immediately after June decisions.'


    Data to be released on Friday:

    Germany industrial orders, U.K. Halifax house prices. U.S. independence day holiday.

  5. #5
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    Smile AceTraderFx Jul 8: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

    08 Jul 2014
    01:59GMT

    EUR/USD - .. Euro moves narrowly but with a firm bias in subdued Asian trading after Mon's rebound from European near 2-week low of 1.3676.
    Short-term specs sold the single currency at European open on stop hunting and although price briefly penetrated Friday's 1.3586 low, good buying interest emerged at 1.3676 and euro staged a rebound to 1.3602, such move prompted broad-based short-covering in euro vs USD & GBP, the pair later rose marginally to session high of 1.3609 in NY afternoon, the 1.3610 at Asian open.

    Although consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, reports of fairly good offers at 1.3615/25 should cap intra-day gain, so day traders can sell the euro on marginal rise for re-test of 1.3676 later in the day.
    Initial bids are noted at 1.3600 and more at 1.3590-85 with stops below 1.3675, however, traders reported a layer of bids at 1.3665-50, so downside on the euro also looks pretty limited today.
    Germany & France will release trade data at 06:00GMT & 06:45GMT but these are not expected to move the euro much.

    White House said Obama, Hollande decide U.S., Europe should take further coordinated measures to impose costs on Russia if it does not take immediate steps towards de-escalation in Ukraine.


    Data to be released on Tuesday:

    Japan current account, economic watchers, Australia NAB business confidence, business conditions, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, France trade balance, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output and U.S. redbook retail sales.

  6. #6
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    Smile AceTraderFx Jul 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    25 Jul 2014
    08:20GMT

    EUR/USD - .. Ifo economist Wohlrabe said, quote:
    'scale of drop in climate index surprising but wouldn't call it a change in trend;
    geopolitical tensions come at same time as slowdown fm very good Q1 for German business;
    German domestic business climate still strg but export expectations at lowest lvl in more than a year;
    influence of Ukraine n mid-east conflicts cannot be measured in concrete terms;
    expects German economic growth for 2014 to be as forecast at 2.0% or perhaps slightly higher.'

    The single currency fell to intra-day low of 1.3443 after German Ifo Jul business sentiment index unexpectedly dropped to 108.0, forecast was 109.4.

    However, talk of bids at 1.3440-30 n more below has contained weakness, so minor range trading abv y'day's fresh 8-month trough at 1.3438 is likely. Offers have been lowered to 1.3455/65 n more are tipped at 1.3475/85, suggesting selling euro on recovery is the way to go.


    Earlier on, Euro maintains a steady posture at European opening n has shown muted reaction to the release of slightly better-than-expected German GfK consumer confidence.

    The German consumer morale index climbed to its highest level in over 7 years. Aug reading came in at 9.0 vs forecast of 8.9 (prev. reading was 8.9).

    As mentioned in previous update, market is awaiting release of the important German Ifo business climate index later at 08:00GMT where street forecast for Jul reading is 109.4 vs prev. reading of 109.7. If actual comes in lower than expectation, expect another round of euro bashing but if it is sharply higher, then be prepared for more broad-based short-covering in euro vs usd, yen & gbp.

  7. #7
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    Smile AceTraderFx Aug 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

    04 Aug 2014
    01:12GMT

    EUR/USD - .... News over the weekend worth noting, Bloomberg reported that 'Portugal's central bank took control of Banco Espirito Santo SA in a 4.9 billion-euro ($6.6 billion) bailout that will leave junior bondholders with losses.

    'The full contribution of shareholders and of subordinated debt holders to the losses of Banco Espirito Santo will be ensured in accordance with the burden sharing rules' set out in 2013, the European Commission said in a statement on Sunday as it approved the plan.

    Subordinated bonds have been hit by European regulators seeking to share the cost of resolving distressed banks with bondholders, with losses inflicted on holders of junior debt of lenders including Britain? Co-Operative Bank Plc and Spain's Bankia SA. (BKIA).

    Banco Espirito Santo has 457 million euros of Tier 1 bonds, its most junior debt securities, and 853 million euros of more-senior Tier 2 bonds, making a total of about 1.3 billion euros, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The lender has 13.5 billion euros of senior bonds and 4.63 billion euros of secured notes outstanding. All in all, it has 20.4 billion euros of bond debt outstanding, the data show.

    Banco Espirito Santo is 20 percent owned by Espirito Santo Financial Group, part of a chain of companies linked to the bank? founding family. The lender? largest outside shareholders include France? Credit Agricole SA (ACA), owner of a 14.6 percent stake, as well as Brazil? Banco Bradesco SA (BBDC4), which has a 3.9 percent holding.

    Banco Espirito Santo shares slumped 67 percent in July as three parent companies linked to the Espirito Santo family requested protection from creditors and concern grew that the bank may have to inject additional capital into its Angola unit.
    Vitor Bento, who will be Novo Banco's chief executive officer, said the decision removes key uncertainties around the bank and the lender is now stronger and safer than before, according to a statement.


    Next week will see the release of Australia’s retail sales, Swiss PMI, UK Markit CIPS Cons PMI, Eurozone producer prices, U.S. iSM New York index on Monday.

    Australia’s import, export and trade balance, Japan’s services PMI, China HSbC services PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, German and Eurozone Markit services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, U.S. redbook, U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods, and factory orders on Tuesday.

    New Zealand HLFS unemployment rate, UK BRC shop price index, Japan’s leading indicator, German industrial orders, Swiss CPI, U.K. industrial and manufacturing output, Canada’s import, export and trade balance on Wednesday.

    Australia’s unemployment rate, Swiss consumer confidence, German industrial output, Bank of England rate decision, eurozone rate decision, Canada’s Ivy PMI and building permit on Thursday.

    Japan’s current account, Australia’s housing finance, China’s export, import and trade balance, Swiss unemployment rate, German import, export and trade balance, U.K. trade balance, Canada’s unemployment rate, U.S. productivity, wholesale sales and inventories on Friday.

  8. #8
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    Smile AceTraderFx Aug 5: Market Review & data to be released today

    Market Review - EUR/USD

    EUR/USD - ... Yesterday on Europe closing saw the single currency traded narrowly on Monday after Fri's strong rebound to 1.3445. Euro ratcheted lower from last Fri's NY high at 1.3445 to 1.3409/10 in New York b4 recovering. Some bids are now reported at 1.3410-05 whilst some offers are tipped at 1.3430-40, however, trading was subdued as investors are waiting for the ECB's rate decision on Thursday.
    Earlier Fed issued a statement, quote:
    banks eased lending standards for many loan categories amid broad-based pickup in loan demand in 3-month period to July;
    many banks eased standards on prime residential home loans;
    little change in standards for other household loans; domestic banks eased lending standards for commercial/industrial, most types of commercial real estate loans;
    banks saw stronger demand for many more loan categories that in April survey - quarterly senior loan officers survey.


    Tuesday will see the release of Australia’s import, export and trade balance, Japan’s services PMI, China HSBC services PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, German and Eurozone Markit services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, U.S. redbook, U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods and factory orders.

  9. #9
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    Smile AceTraderFx Aug 12: Market Review, New and Views, and data to be released

    On the European closing, and despite last Friday's active short-covering rally from as high as 1.3433 on Friday, the single currency ratcheted lower to 1.3381 in New York on Monday on renewed worries about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Germany, the euro zone's largest economy.
    Offers are not tipped at 1.3400 and more at 1.3410-20.
    On the downside, some bids are located at 1.3375-70 with mixture of bides and stops seen at 1.3350.

    Last night, U.S. president Obama told Poroshenko in phone call any Russian intervention in Ukraine is "unacceptable".
    U.N. chief welcomes "forward movement" toward creation of Iraq gov't, commends Iraqi president for asking Haider Al-Abadi to form government


    Tuesday will see the release of U.K. BRC retail sales, BOJ meeting minutes, Japan's domestic CGPI, Australia's house prices, NAB business conditions and business confidence, Japan's industrial output, eurozone ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. Redbook and Federal Budget.

  10. #10
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    Smile AceTraderFx Aug 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

    17 Aug 2014
    22:58GMT

    EUR/USD - .... News from Reuters, German Foreign Minister says 'he and Russian, Ukrainian, French foreign ministers agreed to report back to their leaders and then possibly agree Monday or Tuesday how to continue talks; the aim remains to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine.'

    On its Friday closing, although euro climbed to an intra-day high of 1.3412 in New York morning after the release of a series of U.S. economic data, including NY Fed manufacturing, PPI, foreign treasury buy, industrial and manufacturing output and University of Michigan sentiment.
    Selling interest below there capped euro's upside somewhat. The pair later retreated to 1.3378 in part due to active cross buying in Japanese yen versus the euro after the news.
    While EUR/JPY tumbled from 137.62 to 136.77. Offers are now tipped at 1.3400-10 with stops building up above 1.3420.
    On the downside, some bids are located at 1.3380-75 and 1.3360-50.


    Next week will see the release of U.K. rightmove house prices, China house prices, eurozone eurostat trade and U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.

    New Zealand’s producer prices, RBA meeting minutes, eurozone current account, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, U.S. building permits, core CPI, housing starts, Redbook and Cleveland Fed CPI on Tuesday.

    RBA’s Stevens testimony, Japan’s exports, imports and trade balance, Australia’s Westpac leading economic index, Japan’s all industry index, Germany’s producer prices, BOE’s meeting minutes and CBI trend, Canada’s wholesale trade and U.S. FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

    On Thursday, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France’s Markit manufacturing and service flash PMI, Germany’s Markit manufacturing flash PMI, eurozone’s manufacturing and service flash PMI, U.K. PSNCR and retail sales, U.S. jobless claims and Markit manufacturing PMI, eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. Philly Fed business index, and existing home sales on Thursday. The 3-day annual Federal Reserve Bank symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins.

    Canada’s CPI and retail sales on Friday.

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