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  1. #1
    AceTraderFX is offline Senior Member
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    Smile AceTraderFx Jul 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    03 Jul 2014
    08:30GMT

    GBP/USD - .. U.K. services PMI for June came in at 57.7, below street forecast of 58.3 (previous reading was 58.6), cable slipped after the data to 1.7134 after tripping light stops below 1.7140.

    Current weakness suggests a long-overdue correction of recent strong uptrend has taken place, stops below 1.7130 are now in focus, however, as mentioned in previous, fairly large stops are reported below 1.7095, so until the latter stop lvl is tripped, do not get overly bearish on the pound. For now, offers have been lowered to 1.7150/60 n more above with stops above yesterday's fresh 5-1/2 year peak at 1.7180.


    Breaking news from Reuters earlier, Bank of England's Deputy Gov Sir Jon Cunliffe says biggest risk to the UK economy is house prices rising faster than income; we don't forecast or set out when interest rates will next change, we make decision on basis of information coming in; we have said we are looking at the amount of spare capacity when deciding on monetary tightening; when interest rates start to go up, the pace is going to be gentler than in past and it will be to a lower level.

    Jon Cunliffe will deliver a speech at the International Festival for Business conference at 11:00GMT, Liverpool today.

  2. #2
    AceTraderFX is offline Senior Member
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    Smile AceTraderFx Aug 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    GBP/USD
    - .... Although Britons are finding EU goods & services cheaper this month as compared to a year ago when they take their vacation in Europe in this holiday Aug month after eur/gbp cross slid to a near 2-year low of 0.7874 in Jul, the flip side of this is the widening of Britain's trade gap esp vs the EU.

    The U.K. Telegraph reported why the eurozone's woes could hurt Britain. Growth in EU ground to a halt in the 2nd quarter of the year. This was mostly due to weaker-than-expected figures from the eurozone's economic heavyweights.
    Germany's economy shrank by 0.2% in the quarter, while France's flatlined. At the same time, the bloc is on the cusp of a deflationary spiral.
    Prices are falling in Portugal, Greece n Spain, while Italy isn't far behind.

    Because the EU is still Britain's single biggest overseas market, so an economic standstill in the eurozone will hit UK exports hard.
    MPC member David Miles summed it up on Thur when he said British exports to the EU are "dead in the water".

    Britain's overseas investments are also concentrated in the EU, so poor performing EU firms will hit the UK's return on foreign investment hard, too. Both of these factors mean further pain for the U.K.?s current account deficit, which already stands near a record high at 4.4% of GDP.

  3. #3
    AceTraderFX is offline Senior Member
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    Smile AceTraderFx Sept 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD


    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

    02 Sep 2014
    08:32GMT

    GBP/USD - .... Cable has stabilised after intra-day sell off from 1.6605 (Asia) to as low as 1.6554 in European morning due initially dlr's strength at Asian open, then broad-based selling of sterling vs euro & yen.

    The fact that price is unable to stage a short-covering rebound after release of a much stronger-than-expected U.K. construction PMI (Aug actual came in at 64.0 vs forecast of 61.4 & prev. reading of 62.4) suggests the no. of sterling bears is greater than the bulls. Looks like sterling bears are targeting stops below last Mon's 4-1/2 month low at 1.6535. For now, offers are tipped at 1.6585/95 n more abv with stop touted abv 1.6615. A mixture of bids n stops is reported near 1.6535-30, suggesting selling cable on recovery is the way to go.

    Although sterling held well yesterday after a surprise downbeat U.K. manufacturing PMI where Aug reading dropped fm 54.8 to 52.25. We have construction PMI due out today n then the important services PMI on Wed.

    The U.K. Telegraph reported a weaker outlook for the manufacturing sector has led some analysts to suggest that the best days of the U.K. recovery have now passed. Poor manufacturing data could signal the end of a hot streak for U.K. growth.

    The survey pointed to a "broad slowdown" that is underway in the UK's manufacturing sector, according to Markit, who compiled the report. Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said: "It is also becoming increasingly evident that UK industry is not immune to the impacts of rising geopolitical and global market uncertainty, especially when they affect economic growth and business confidence in our largest trading partner the eurozone."

    With the Scottish referendum on Sep 18 a little more than 2-week away, more news n latest poll results will be reported. Reuters reported the British government said on Monday it was not drawing up contingency plans for a surprise vote in favour of Scottish independence.

    One of the major debates has raised big questions such as what currency an independent Scotland would use and what would happen to Britain's Scotland-based nuclear submarines. But the govt on Mon refused to discuss how it would handle a split.
    "No such work (is being) undertaken," PM David Cameron's official spokesman told reporters when asked if the govt had drawn up contingency plans for a "Yes" vote. "The govt's entire focus is on making the case for the UK staying together."

  4. #4
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    Smile AceTraderFx Sept 19: Intra-Day News & Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

    19 Sep 2014
    01:10GMT

    GBP/USD
    - .... Cable continues to climb to intra-day high of 1.6523 after 2nd local council result (total 32) from Orkney Islands showed 'No' won by 67% vs 'Yes' at 33%.

    Reuters reported results from smaller councils will appear before larger ones (for obvious reasons), big cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh & Aberdeen are expected to come around 04:00GMT.

    Earlier, Cable rises again in Asia on Bloomberg TV news reporting the 1st local council (32 in total) results from Clackmannashire which showed 'No' won by 53.8% vs 'Yes' at 46.2% in the Scottish Independence referendum.

    Friday will see the release of Germany's producer prices, eurozone current account, Canada's core CPI, CPI inflation and wholesale trade and U.S. leading index.

  5. #5
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    Smile AceTraderFx Oct 2: Intra-Day News & Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

    02 Oct 2014

    GBP/USD -
    ...... Cable swung wildly in Wednesday's session as despite falling to a fresh 2-week low of 1.6161 after release of downbeat U.K. mfg PMI in European morning, short-covering together with broad-based selling in greenback after downbeat U.S. data lifted price to 1.6252 in NY before retreating to 1.6173 on renewed cross-selling in sterling.
    Later, price edged higher after NY closing and recovered to 1.6199 in Aust. and 1.6206 in Asian morning.

    The overnight rebound after holding above yesterday's low of 1.6161 suggests range trading is likely until European open, however, investors should pay attention to the release of U.K. Markit construction PMI at 08:30GMT.
    In addition, investors should also closely watch the intra-day move of eur/gbp cross as yesterday's recovery after failing to penetrate Tuesday's 2-year low at 0.8766 may triggered broad-based short covering and pressure price here later in the day.

    Bids are noted at 1.6185/80 and around 1.6170 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.6150/45 and further out at 1.6130.
    On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6220-30 and then 1.6240/45 with stops emerging just above 1.6260.

    Data to be released on Thursday:

    China market holiday, Australia new home sales, exports, imports, trade balance, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, ISM New-York index, durable goods and factory orders.

  6. #6
    AceTraderFX is offline Senior Member
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    Smile AceTraderFx Oct 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    14 Oct 2014
    08:30GMT

    GBP/USD - ...... Cable falls to session low of 1.5979 immediately after release of U.K. inflation data. September annual CPI came in at 1.2% vs street forecast of 1.4% whilst month/month CPI came in at 0% vs forecast of 0.2%.

    Sterling was already down vs euro & yen in European morning and the lower-than-expected inflation has deferred market speculation of a hike in the U.K. base rate by the BoE anytime soon in 2015.
    Looks like sterling would remain under pressure in Europe n last Monday's 11-trough at 1.5943 is now in focus.
    Offers are noted at 1.6000/10 and more above, some bids are reported at 1.5960/50 with stops building below 1.5940.
    Therefore, selling cable is the way to go today !!

  7. #7
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    Smile AceTraderFx Dec 18: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

    18 Dec 2014
    02:40GMT
    GBP/USD - ...... Cable is nursing yesterdays sharp losses in quiet Asian trading on Thursday after o/n sell off below December's 1.5541 low to a fresh 14-1/2 month trough of 1.5530 after Fed Chair Yellen's hawkish remarks at the post-FOMC press conference.
    Despite tripping stops in a rather illiquid late NY session, short covering quickly lifted the pound once the sell stops were done.
    Price briefly bounced to 1.5603 n then moved narrowly in Australia. Asian traders are happy to stay on the sideline until European open.

    Looks like Wednesday's low print would continue to hold until release of key U.K. retail sales data at 09:30GMT. Street forecasts are looking for a weakish Novmeber number with M/M to be 0.3% vs previous reading of +0.8% whilst Y/Y figure is expected to be 4.4% vs previous reading of 4.3%.
    If both readings come in weaker than forecast, one can expect another round of pound bashing.
    Until then, offers are noted at 1.5600/10 and more above with stops reported above 1.5630.
    Initial bids are noted at 1.5505-00 with some stops below there.

    Thursday will see the release of New Zealand's GDP, Australia's RBA Bulletin, China's House Prices, Switzerland's Trade, Germany's IFO Business Climates, IFO Current Conditions, IFO Expectations, U.K.'s Retail sales, U.S. Markit Service PMI, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Business and Leading index change. Japan's BoJ will begin its 2-day meeting.

  8. #8
    AceTraderFX is offline Senior Member
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    Smile AceTraderFx Jan 9: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    09 Jan 2015
    02:32GMT

    GBP/USD - ..... Despite initial retreat from NY high of 1.5118 to 1.5078 in Australia, cable rebounded to 1.5104 on dovish remarks by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, its was a surprise dlr fell broadly on his comments since he is not a voting member of the 2015 FOMC and has announced plans to resign by early next year.
    As yesterday's short-covering strong rebound from a 17-month bottom made in Europe at 1.5034 signals a temp. low is in place, range trading is expected in Asia.
    Offers are tipped at 1.5100/10 with stops touted above 1.5130.
    Initial bids are noted at 1.5080-70 and more below with stops reported below 1.5030.


    Friday will see the release of Australia retail sales, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, China CPI, PPI, Germany imports, exports, industrial output, trade balance, France exports, imports, industrial output, trade balance, Italy ISTAT Public Deficit/GDP, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, Canada building permits, unemployment rate, U.S. average earnings, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

  9. #9
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    Smile AceTraderFx Jan 13: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    13 Jan 2015
    01:29GMT

    GBP/USD - ...... Cable shrugged off early release of weak U.K. retails sales and rebounded in tandem with euro due to intra-day renewed weakness in the greenback in Asia.

    Reuters reported U.K. retail spending growth slowed in December after consumers splashed out on November's "Black Friday" bargains and prices continued to fall broadly, industry data showed on Tuesday.

    The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said year-on-year retail spending was 1.0% higher this December than a year ago, the weakest December growth since 2008 and a sharp contrast with November's 2.2% jump.

    Falling prices also weighed on spending. Shop prices were down by an average of 1.7% in December compared with 2013, the BRC said last week. Broader official data due for release at 09:30GMT is forecast to show consumer price inflation at a 12-year low of 0.7%.

    Taking lower prices into account, retail sales volumes rose an annual 2.6%, the same as in Dec 2013. Retail spending on the BRC's like-for-like measure -- which excludes new stores n more closely reflects how stores report sales to shareholders -- were 0.4% down on the year.

    Yesterday although the British pound fell from an intra-day high at 1.5195 to session low at 1.5099 in European morning on dlr's broad-based strength, cable pared its losses n rebounded strongly in tandem with euro to 1.5174 in NY morning. However, price met renewed selling there n retreated to 1.5136, weighed down by cross-selling of sterling vs euro.


    Tuesday will see the release of Japan's Current Account and Economic Watchers Poll, China's Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, Italy's Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail sales, CPI, PPI, RPI, U.S. Rebook and Federal Budget on Tuesday.
    Last edited by AceTraderFX; 01-12-2015 at 05:14 PM.

  10. #10
    AceTraderFX is offline Senior Member
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    Smile AceTraderFx Jan 21: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

    Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
    21 Jan 2015
    03:30GMT

    GBP/USD - ..... The pound pares yesterday's spectacular rally from Asian 1-week low of 1.5058 to as high as 1.5200 in NY morning. Some touted this move on possible M&A deal whilst some tied this to active buying of sterling vs yen & eur.
    However, renewed weakness in eur/usd in NY session later triggered broad-based long liquidation in sterling and cable retreated to 1.5136 in Asia, suggesting choppy trading below said yesterday's high would continue today.

    Range trading this morning was expected ahead of release of MPC's Jan minutes n U.K. jobs data at 09:30GMT.
    Offers then were tipped at 1.5160/70 and more with stops above 1.5200. Initial bids are noted at 1.5140-30 and more at 1.5110-00.

    With U.K. general election looming in May, Blooming reported lose-lose for business as U.K. election defies prediction.

    Businesses faced with a general election in the U.K. are finding that the only thing certain about the vote is its unpredictability. 3-1/2 months before the ballot, polls agree that neither PM David Cameron's Conservatives nor the Labour opposition are likely to win a majority. And the odds have already shortened on a rerun having to be held this year.

    That makes companies' forward planning increasingly difficult even as the U.K. economy gathers strength, inflation drops n interest rates look like staying at a record low. 16 of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News identified political uncertainty as the biggest threat to Britain?s recovery, making it the second biggest risk after weak demand fm the euro area, which was cited by 18.

    Both parties' electoral agendas are also cause for concern. The U.K. Independence Party's growing popularity has forced Cameron to harden his stance on Europe and to pledge a referendum on EU membership by 2017 if he is re-elected, pitting him -- unusually for a Tory leader -- against the majority of British businesses. Meanwhile, Labour leader Ed Miliband's pledges to freeze energy prices and raise taxes have been greeted with unease.

    The EY ITEM Club also cited possible shocks from the U.K. election as a risk that "should not be neglected" in its winter forecast, published this week.

    Still, with polls consistently putting Labour n the Conservatives neck and neck, questions such as the likelihood of a referendum may not be resolved on May 7. A survey by YouGov Plc carried out on Jan. 18 n Jan. 19 found the Tories n Labour tied at 32 % of the vote -- not enough for either party to get a majority in Parliament. The poll of 1,747 people also put UKIP support at 15 %, with the Liberal Democrats at 8 % n the Greens at 7 %.

    Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's CPI, Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence, Japan's BoJ rate decision, Monetary Policy Statement, Leading Economic Index, BoE MPC vote outcome, U.K.'s Average Earnings, ILO unemployment rate, Claimant Count Unemployment Change, Canada's Wholesale Trade, BoC's rate decision, U.S. Housing Starts, Redbook and Building Permits.

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