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Thread: Weekly FX forecast from NordFX

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    Julia NordFX is offline Senior Member
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    Default Weekly FX forecast from NordFX

    Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 February 2015


    Generalizing in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be expected:
    - EUR/USD will continue its downward tendency to the 1.1100 mark, although the opinions of analysts were divided almost equally: a third predict growth for the pair, a third – its fall and a third – a sideways trend;
    - the situation with GBP/USD is similar while bearish tendencies look more convincing in this case;
    - there is no consensus about the USD/JPY pair this week either among analysts or among indicators, something that happens very rarely. Here the choice is between a sideways movement and the pair’s long-time tendency towards the range of 119.00-121.00, which it is very likely to reach after all;
    - both analysts and indicators predict USD/CHF to return to the level of last autumn, with strong volatility too, intraday fluctuations reaching 150 and even 200 points.

    As for the last week’s forecast:
    - we predicted EUR/USD to fall to 1.1100 and possibly go up to 1.1380-1.1460. It did happen, just in the reverse order – first the pair slipped down to the 1.1094 mark, rebounded to 1.1420, then calmed down and entered a sideways trend with the upper boundary of 1.1380;
    - as predicted for the start of the week, GBP/USD rebounded upwards and way more than expected. As a result, another attempt by the pair to fall to the low of 1.4900 failed and the pair was thrown off to the level of the beginning of the week – 1.4986;
    - as anticipated, the USD/JPY pair tried to reach its nearest target of 119.00 but weakened at the level of 118.66, took a break and entered a sideways trend;
    - USD/CHF was set on partially winning back its Black Thursday losses – it rushed upwards and quickly achieved the predicted level of 0.9000, stayed there for three days and then dashed even higher, soaring up by almost 300 points and reaching the 0.9285 mark by Friday.

    Roman Butko, NordFX



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    Generalized Forex Forecast for 4-8 May 2015


    First, a few words regarding last week’s forecast:
    - the forecast for EUR/USD was fulfilled by exactly 50%. As promised, at the start of the week the pair strived to the top boundary of the corridor, which was defined by the highs of March and April. However, after that, instead of rebounding and going downwards, the pair rushed further upwards and reached the level of February;
    - GBP/USD was much more docile – it was rising for the first few days of the week but towards the end, as predicted, it rapidly rolled downwards and finished the five days where it had taken off;
    - USD/JPY was predicted to continue its sideways trend and rise to around 120.80-122.00, which happened with 100% accuracy. The pair’s sideways movement with a 120.28 high is clearly seen on the H4 and D1 charts;
    - on the contrary, the analysts’ forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be 100% inaccurate. The pair was expected to mirror the movements of EUR/USD and it did. Precisely due to this, USD/CHF went downwards, reaching the level of February just like EUR/USD.
    ***
    Now about the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, it can be suggested that:
    - the EUR/USD pair will be in a sideways trend with fluctuations in the range of 1.1100-1.1430, although the pair may fall to 1.0800, returning to the low of last week;
    - the majority of the analysts think that GBP/USD will also be in a sideways trend in the boundaries from 1.5000 to 1.5300. This forecast is supported by the discordance in the indicator readings;
    - like last week, most of the analysts and 82% of the indicators presume that USD/JPY will try to consolidate in the range of 120.00-122.00, the high for the coming five days being at 121.50. On the other hand, 8% of the analysts predict a sharp rebound downwards and a fall to the level of 117.00;
    - finally, USD/CHF is most likely to take after EUR/USD, same as last week. If the latter moves downwards, USD/CHF, mirroring EUR/USD, will go upwards to 0.9500. With this, if you calculate the mean maximum and minimum based on all the forecasts, the pair should finish the next week exactly at the same level it had started, i.e. at 0.9335.
    Roman Butko, NordFX
    Forecast for 04-08 may 2015.jpg

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    Julia NordFX is offline Senior Member
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    05.05.2015 06:40 GMT

    A Slight Hike on Markets

    On Monday, the world’s financial markets closed mainly on the rise, with the exception of the commodity market where the price of oil dropped a little.

    In Europe as such, the British FTSE 100 grew 0.36 percent to 6985.95 points on Friday. On Monday, there was no trading on the London exchange due to a holiday. Also on Monday, the German DAX 30 advanced 1.57 percent up to 11,634.34 points, and the French CAC 40 gained 0.84 percent reaching 5,088.82 points.

    European investors’ sentiment was influenced by the news about an interim agreement between Greece and its lenders.

    The Russian market was closed for May Day holidays on Monday.

    In the USA, the Dow Jones grew 0.26 percent to 18,070.40 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.29 percent up to 2,114.49 points, and the NASDAQ added 0.23 percent getting to 5,016.93 points.

    Oil prices, however, posted a slight drop yesterday. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June went down by $0.22 and reached $58.93 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the cost of Brent oil futures for June delivery was down by $0.01 ending up at $66.45 a barrel.

    On the Forex market, EUR/USD is returning to the breakthrough point in the double bottom pattern on the daily chart. The pair may start moving up again from 1.0970.

    Anna Gorenkova
    NordFX Analyst

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    06.05.2015 07:30 GMT

    Russian Equity Gains Due to Oil Price Rise Over Holidays


    Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. European indices posted a drop – Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.84 percent to 6,927.58 points, Germany’s DAX slumped 2.51 percent down to 11,327.68 points, and France’s CAC 40 dropped 2.12 percent down to 4,974.07 points.

    At the same time, Russia’s equity soared up, taking a cue from rising oil prices and ruble strengthening over the holidays. Thus, the MICEX index advanced 1.98 percent up to 1,721.80 points while the RTS index shot up by 4.24 percent altogether and reached 1,072.93 points.

    In the USA, the Dow Jones fell 0.79 percent to 17,928.20 points, the S&P 500 shed 1.18 percent down to 2,089.46 points, and the NASDAQ dropped 1.55 percent down to 4,939.33 points.

    On the NYMEX, the price of June futures for WTI oil rose by $1.47 and made $60.40 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the June future for oil of mark Brent went up by $1.07 and reached $67.52 a barrel.

    Yesterday on the global currency market, the euro gained ground against the dollar. Today EUR/USD continues to go up. In case the chart pattern is completed, the pair can get to 1.14.

    Anna Gorenkova
    NordFX Analyst

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    08.05.2015 07:30 GMT

    EUR/USD Is Correcting


    Yesterday world financial markets posted mixed results again. In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell 0.67 percent to 6,886.95 points, the DAX grew 0.51 percent to 11,407.97 points while the САС 40 shed 0.29 percent down to 4,967.22 points.

    Russia’s indices went down following oil prices – the MICEX index dropped 1.59 percent to 1,686.98 points, and the RTS index fell 0.51 percent to 1,060.73 points.

    In the USA, the Dow Jones added 0.46 percent making 17,924.06 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.38 percent to 2,088 points, and the NASDAQ advanced 0.53 percent up to 4,945.54 points.

    Thursday evening oil prices went down. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $1.71 and reached $56.59 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of the Brent oil future for June was down by $2.03 and got to $65.74 a barrel.

    On the global currency market, EUR/USD was slightly short of the 1.14 target and is experiencing a downward correction. Nonetheless, in case of favorable macroeconomic data, the pair may reach 1.1470.

    Anna Gorenkova
    NordFX Analyst

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    GENERALIZED FOREX FORECAST FOR 11 – 15 MAY 2015
    «BINGO!” AND BLACK BEARS


    As usual, first a few words regarding last week’s forecast:
    - for the EUR/USD pair the forecast was fulfilled by no less than 100%. We supposed that the EUR/USD pair would experience a sideways trend and a possible descent to the 1.0800 mark. This is what actually ended up happening, as on Tuesday the pair fell into the 1.0700÷1.0850 zone and stayed there for approximately one hour before determinedly rising in order to finish the week at exactly the same mark as the mark it started from;
    - the GBP/USD pair was strictly abiding by our “guidelines” of a sideways move all week until Thursday evening, maintaining an even narrower range than we originally supposed. However, this was followed by the announcement of the British election results, which surprised not only politicians but also financiers, resulting in the pair soaring up by more than 200 points
    - Regarding the USD/JPY pair, the majority of both analysts and indicators asserted that the pair would keep strengthening in the area above 120.00. On the other hand, a rather tight-numbered opposition was foretelling a rapid downwards rebound. The result was that both groups proved to be right, as at the start of the week “bulls” were propping the pair up, not letting it fall below the arranged 120.00 line. However, they then weakened and passed on their influence to the “bears”. Zoologists claim that Japanese black bears prefer steep mountainous terrain, which, judging by the way the pair impetuously descended, is hard to disagree with. However, by the end of the week, the pair once again climbed upwards, returning to the 119.70 point, which it has been fluctuating about since the end of March.
    - The USD/CHF forecast maintained that the pair would continue following in the wake of EUR/USD, acting as a mirror image of its “older sister”. Therefore, , looking at last week’s charts we can now shout “Bingo!”, since the forecast proved to be 100% accurate.
    ***
    Now on to the forecast for the upcoming week. Aggregating the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts, which were based on an extremely diverse range of technical and graphical analytical methods, we can presume that:
    - The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue occupying a sideways trend with fluctuations about the 1.1230 mark. At the very least, this is the conclusion we arrived at after looking at the neat split between expert opinions: ↑ - 22%, → - 3%, ↓- 19%, ↔ (raised hands) – 56%. A similar situation occurs with indicator showings: ↑ - 35%, → - 17%, ↓- 48%. The main levels of support 1.1060, 1.0850 and 1.0650, whilst the main levels of resistance are 1.1290 and 1.1440;
    - For the GBP/USD pair an absolute majority of indicators (87%. ) on both H4 and D1 foretell growth. Analysts’ opinions, however, diverge (↑ - 25%, → - 9%, ↓- 22%, ↔ – 44%. ). Since the pair has already reached quite a high level of 1.5600, there exists a significant probability that the pair will attempt to barge through the resistance and settle in the 1.5475÷1.5785 zone. However, a failure to do so and an ensuing descent to the 1.5000 support level can also be predicted with a similarly high probability.
    - As for the USD/JPY pair, expert opinions and indicator predictions also diverge (experts: ↑ - 7%, → - 22%, ↓- 26%, ↔ – 45%, indicators: ↑ - 60%, → - 17%, ↓- 23%. ). However, both are satisfied with a Pivot Point level of 119.70, support at the 119.20, 188.75 and 119.20 levels and resistance at 120.05, 120.30 и 120.85;
    - Regarding the near future of the USD/CHF pair, however, both analysts and indicators are in harmony: more than 75% of the former and 56% of the latter agree that the pair should rise and settle in the 0.9300÷0.9400 corridor. The next support level is 0.9190 and the next resistance level is 0.9500.

    Roman Butko, NordFX

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    13.05.2015 08:10 GMT

    Drop in European Equity Due to Greek Situation

    Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. In particular, European stock markets slumped following the interim meeting of the Eurogroup and the Greek government. According to media reports, both parties still couldn’t reach an agreement on key issues. In this light, the FTSE 100 fell 1.37 percent to 6,933.80 points, the DAX dropped 1.72 percent to 11,472.41 points, and the CAC 40 shed 1.06 percent down to 4,974.65 points.

    On Russia’s stock market, the MICEX index fell 0.23 percent to 1,704.62 points whereas the RTS index grew 1.01 percent finishing the trading session at 1,070.19 points.

    In the USA, the Dow Jones declined by 0.2 percent to 18,068.23 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.29 percent down to 2,099.12 points, and the NASDAQ fell 0.35 percent down 4,976.19 points.

    Oil prices posted a rise, however. On the NYMEX, the price of WTI oil futures for June went up by $1.5 and made $60.75 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the Brent oil future for June rose by $1.95 and reached $66.86 a barrel.

    On the Forex market, EUR/USD is experiencing some correction at this point. Nevertheless, the prospects of moving up to 1.1470 still remain.

    Anna Gorenkova
    NordFX Analyst

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    14.05.2015 07:40 GMT

    Euro Began to Go Up

    Yesterday the world’s financial markets closed mainly on the decline. In Europe, the FTSE 100 grew 0.23 percent to 6,949.63 points, the DAX dropped 1.05 percent down to 11,351.46 points, and the CAC 40 fell 0.26 percent to 4,961.86 points.

    In Russia, the MICEX index shed 1.31 percent down to 1,682.26 points while the RTS index advanced 1.12 percent up to 1,082.21 points.

    In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.04 percent to 18,060.49 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.03 percent down to 2,098.48 points whereas the NASDAQ added 0.11 percent making 4,981.69 points.

    Oil prices also went down yesterday. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $0.25 and reached $60.50 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the cost of Brent oil futures for June delivery was down by $0.05 and made $66.81 a barrel.

    On the Forex market, EUR/USD went up and is moving towards the afore-mentioned target of 1.1470.

    Anna Gorenkova
    NordFX Analyst

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    Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 May 2015

    Let us start with a few words about the forecast for last week, which turned out to be quite accurate overall:
    - the prediction for EUR/USD was that most probably the pair would stay in a sideways trend with fluctuations around the line of 1.1230, which did happen in fact. At first, EUR/USD went downwards, then returned to its Pivot Point, after which the bulls gained strength and began to persistently push the pair towards the upper boundary of the corridor. The level of 1.1440 was set as the final bastion of resistance, and the pair tried to break through it all Friday long. However, it failed and finished the five days in this very zone;
    - one of the possibilities for GBP/USD was breaking through the resistance level of 1.5600, which was also supported by 87% of the indicators. The breakthrough happened already on Tuesday, and then the pair tried several times to rise above the upper boundary of the corridor – 1.5785. It didn’t succeed, though, and so settled down finishing at 1.5727;
    - the Pivot Point for USD/JPY was set at 119.70, which was confirmed – the pair crossed it twice during the week, having stayed exactly in the average values of the specified corridor 118.75-120.30;
    - USD/CHF turned out to be the only pair regarding which both analysts and indicators were only partly right. At first, everything seemed to go as planned – the pair began to grow and tried to consolidate above 0.9300. However, on Tuesday, in a powerful spurt, the pair broke through the support line and went down sharply to the low of a week ago.

    ***

    Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note the surprising unanimity of the analysts who predict growth for all four pairs. Such forecasts always raise strong suspicions because some of the pairs are generally characterized by multi-directional rather than direct correlation:
    - for EUR/USD the opinions of the experts are as follows: ↑ – 40%, → – 3%, ↓ – 6%, ↔ (at a loss) – 51%. The indicators provide similar readings: ↑ – 83%, → – 17%, ↓ – 0%. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair has almost completed the Inverted Hat pattern and has to form just the second brim of the hat. Thus, it can be assumed that this week EUR/USD will hold in a sideways corridor of 1.1070-1.1530, and, after a small rise, the pair is expected to have a relatively strong rebound downwards;
    - the D1 chart clearly shows that GBP/USD has reached the upper boundary of the corridor (1.5800) where it stayed for a month and a half at the end of last year. The pair is very likely to linger in the range of 1.5500-1.5815 for some time again. Therefore, despite the vast majority of the analysts and 91% of the indicators pointing to growth, one can expect prevailing bearish tendencies and the pair’s rebound downwards;
    - the opinions of the experts and the readings of the indicators for USD/JPY diverge (the experts: ↑ – 42%, → – 3%, ↓ – 3%, ↔ – 52%; the indicators: ↑ – 26%, → – 4%, ↓ – 70%). Hence, the level of 119.40, at which the pair finished the previous five days, can be considered as a Pivot Point, and the readings of the indicators on the H1 timeframe and smaller can give further guidance. Support will at 119.20, 118.90, 118.75 and 118.50; resistance – 119.60, 119.90, 120.00 and 120.30;
    - as for the near future of USD/CHF, the data for both analysts and indicators are similar to USD/JPY (the experts: ↑ – 40%, → – 6%, ↓ – 4%, ↔ – 50%; the indicators: ↑ – 17%, → – 9%, ↓ – 74%). At the same time, as USD/CHF is in an inverse correlation with EUR/USD, it may go up at least to around 0.9290-0.9380. In the case this forecast is not fulfilled, the support levels will be 0.9110, 0.9075 and 0.8980, resistance – 0.9500.

    Roman Butko, NordFX

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    18.05.2015 07:10 GMT

    Euro Reached Its Target Level


    Last Friday European markets closed in the red whereas Russian and US markets posted a rise.

    In Europe, the British FTSE 100 fell 0.18 percent to 6,960.49 points, the German DAX dropped 0.98 percent down to 11,447.03 points, and the French CAC 40 shed 0.71 percent down to 4,993.82 points.

    In Russia, due to corporate reports and strengthening of the ruble, the MICEX index grew 0.8 percent to 1,691.05 points, and the RTS index gained 0.86 percent going up to 1,063.94 points.

    In the USA, the Dow Jones added 0.11 percent making 18,272.56 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.08 up to 2,122.73 points while the NASDAQ fell 0.05 percent to 5,048.29 points.

    The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $0.19 and got to $59.69 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the June future for oil of mark Brent went up by $0.11 and made $66.81 a barrel.

    On the global currency market, EUR/USD has almost reached the earlier mentioned target of 1.1470 (just short of a couple of points). Now the pair is facing quite a big obstacle – the long-term MA on the daily chart and horizontal resistance at 1.1476. The pair may experience a considerable correction here and even roll back to 1.12.

    Anna Gorenkova
    NordFX Analyst
    18 May (1).JPG

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