Thread: Gold trends

August 13th

GOLD --- Do forecasts for $2000 gold have merit ?
The long term chart shows the explosion out of the middle green channel line and the move underway is beginning to target the $2000 area as the next major long term price target. Thus when you hear analysts projecting this target, it's nice to know that from a technical price study and confirmed historical price momentum, the $2000 dollar level has credibility on the chart and is within the maximum velocity parameter that price has displayed in the past. ( In English -- it's a good number and within the parameters its has displayed in the past).
Cyclically The most likely time for such a price high has two windows of time. Starting next week and into the week of either September 3rd or the 21st has potential to achieve this target (1900-2100)
If that happens, odds will favor that this current up wave has completed a 34 month bull up trend. The potential will be great for a 3-5 month pullback and correction into the December to February timeframe. Watch Silver also this coming week, if it breaks above 41.20 ----- odds will increase that the metals will move higher into month end and into a major high the week of September 3rd.

XgldMonthlyGoldand2000Aug2011.jpg

Traders and December Gold
Ever since the move to a new upper channel line (like in the first chart above) the trading ranges have all moved up in range significantly. Stops are going to have to be deeper and timing will become even more important. the 1720 - 1820 is the current range. Price is below the moving averages for the first time this month. Thus, we're in a mini pullback within this trade range. A low of sorts is due between Monday and Wednesday. If we break this range --- on a sharp move down, the 1650-1680 area is the spot to look if your buying the dip.

GoldFuturesDec.jpg

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GOLD TRENDS_DAILY UPDATE

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August 14th

Gold futures finally gave back a share of the gains made over the last several weeks, tumbling more than $70 an ounce during Friday’s session. The sell-off came after gold put in a short term top at the record high near $1,817 per ounce. As the stock market stabilized and fear of a continuation of the meltdown abated, profit taking in the precious metals emerged quickly. Despite the tumble, the price of gold still remains well above the $1,700 per ounce price and well into the record territory set during the month of August.

This plunge and the mild recovery from intra-day lows set up a Channel Down chart pattern on the 15-minute time interval, with the session close coming right at the topside resistance of $1,748 per ounce. The minor up-thrust through this level was enough to initiate a low momentum buy signal for a test of the $1,751 to $1,756 target area, which may be the first stage of an eventual retest of the $1,800 level.

Volatility is expected to remain extreme, as the dramatic range of last week clearly illustrate. The short-term chart patterns will be useful in establishing support and resistance levels within this range. Targets both higher and lower are likely to be overshot to some degree as the market struggles between profit-taking and speculative buying, with the backdrop of the equity and currency markets sure to influence the overall longer term trend from these levels.

Given the depth of the pullback, a retracement to the $1,800 level would likely require a resumption of panic selling on Wall Street, or a major exodus from the US Dollar, or some combination of both. Alternatively, an influx of buyers into the precious metals could also be encouraging a short squeeze as limited supply becomes rapidly consumed by large investors looking to hedge their risks. Considering the impressive strength of the bull market in gold, short-sellers may be slow to enter even on hard breaks such as this.

Traders will be watching the Channel Down chart pattern support near $1,700 per ounce as the week begins, in the event that the initial breakout target is reached, or if the upside projection fails and a new wave of selling comes into the market.

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August 15th

market consolidates after recording the historical high of 1815.00, which is not very far from our proposed technical target of the IM –impulsive- structure started at 680.00 as seen on the provided daily graph. Since we defined the fifth wave to be an extended wave due to the length of the first and the third wave, we may witness a collapse if gold penetrates 1694.00, as this will be an indication for starting the big recovery. Meanwhile, achieving a daily closing above 1770.00 will bring rally resumption towards the required Fibonacci target of the aforesaid fifth wave at 1888.00. Stochastic achieved a negative sign with the past week's closing, while AROON started to show some kind of trend's weakness, but the four hour time scale reflects the heavy volatility, occurred during the previous week. Thus, we prefer staying aside until signs become deeper and clearer.
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1681.00 and key resistance now at 1815.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1888.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact
with weekly closing.

Support: 1735.00, 1720.00, 1707.00, 1687.00, 1681.00
Resistance: 1755.00, 1760.00, 1770.00, 1779.00, 1800.00
Recommendation :Staying aside until a clearer sign appears to pinpoint the upcoming big move.

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August 16th

Gold Breaks Above Congestion Pattern and Targets 1767.70, 1779.50
1767.70 and 1779.50 Targets:

Gold is in a bullish breakout after spending sometime in a congestion or triangle pattern seen in the 1H chart. After breaking above 1757, the market’s next higher pivot is at 1767.70 area.

Above that 1779.50 is the next pivot, within the consolidation context.

Note that the RSI never touched 30 in the 1H reading, and if it breaks above 60, that weak bearish momentum is killed. Pushing above 70, the 1H RSI reading can confirm the short-term bullish scenario.

Breaking above 1780 suggests that the market may have been done with the brief correction and a bullish continuation could be at hand in the medium term.

Nonetheless we might want to see success of breaking back above the psychological resistance at 1800 before being confident of the return to strength.

Risk aversion is helping gold maintain its extremely bullish stance. In the daily chart, the RSI is not even back below 70 yet, so maybe in the short-term we still need to resolve a corrective decline.

The bullish continuation case has fibonacci expansion targets at 1829.76 (138.2%) and 1861.00 (150%). 1850 is between these levels, and is a psychological target above the 1800 level.

Gold prices rose yesterday as risk aversion faded and concerns over a double dip recession eased.

Equity markets rallied and rose higher after a tense past week, helping market sentiment pick up, resulting in safe-haven assets such as gold, the U.S dollar the Swiss franc all falling today.

Meanwhile, a meeting scheduled for today in Paris between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy gave optimism to investors as speculation rises that they will hammer out a solution to the debt crisis which threatens to engulf the economies of Italy and Spain.

Gold should breach through 1770.00 with a daily closing above it to make sure that the metal is on its way towards our detected technical objective of 1888.00. To conclude, the neutrality is still in favor until we witness a decisive break above 1770.00 zones.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1720.00 and key resistance now at 1815.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1888.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.

Support: 1760.00, 1755.00, 1742.00, 1735.00, 1720.00
Resistance: 1770.00, 1779.00, 1785.00, 1800.00, 1815.00

Recommendation:Staying aside until a clearer sign appears to pinpoint the upcoming big move.

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King Regards,

August 17th

The gold markets continued the march northward on Tuesday as the French leader Sarkozy, and the German leader Merkel both failed to come to some kind of deal with the European debt crisis. As such, the world will trust fiat currencies less, and especially the Euro itself. This drives up demand for safe haven assets like gold, and this showed itself on this chart. The market rallies $30 on the session, and it should be noted looks set to test $1,800 yet again. The market is over extended, but unless the fiat currencies get it together – it will stay that way. We recommend buying gold on pullbacks and never shorting it at this point. Support should be evident at $1,750 and $1,700 both.

The gold markets rose again on Wednesday, but not as much as we have seen lately. These are odd times in which we live, as an $8 move in the gold markets is now considered “light”. This shows exactly how much has changed over the last couple of years as it wasn’t that long ago a $10 move in gold was massive. In this environment, $25 moves in a day are no longer uncommon.

The trend is up, but as you can see by the 50-day EMA – we are certainly overbought at this point. Because of this, we feel it is time for a pullback and we welcome that for buying opportunities. Even though we feel there is a pullback coming – we won’t sell. We will simply wait for supportive action at lower levels in which to buy from.

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August 18th

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1755.00 and key resistance now at 1830.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1888.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.

Support: 1785.00, 1779.00, 1770.00, 1760.00, 1755.00
Resistance: 1800.00, 1815.00, 1830.00, 1845.00, 1853.00

Recommendation: buying gold around 1787.00 targeting 1830.00 and stop loss below 1759.00 might be appropriate.

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Hello,

Thanks for your recommendation in the gold market. It is beneficial for me to follow your trend suggestion. But I have a few questions which I
think many traders would be interested to find out. Have the Gold and Silver markets topped out? Have we seen the bottom in the equity
markets?

This is the recommendation from Adam Hewison, co-founder of MarketClub :-

....it would appear that the downward momentum in the equity markets has abated for the moment and we should
expect to see more of a two-way market. However, that does not change the overall bearish longer-term trend.

The Gold market traded over the $1,900 level, before dropping dramatically and creating what could potentially be a negative engulfing
line for the Gold and Silver markets. If this is confirmed on Wednesday, it would mean that gold prices have topped out for the short
term and the $2000 level for Gold will have to be put on hold for the time being. You can read more here.

Hi,

Yesterday, the $6M question was asked : Have the Gold and Silver markets topped out? And have we seen the bottom in
the Equity markets?

Today, Gold and Silver confirmed that they have topped out for the time being. The Equity market is another story. Not
sure if it is the bottom yet.

Be sure to catch tomorrow morning’s post here! Most markets go through seven distinguishable steps and it would appear that Gold has met all those criteria. This post will be invaluable for any serious trader. I think you’ll find it very timely and interesting. You should make yourself aware of these seven steps so you can recognize them in the future.

Hi,

Yesterday, I promised to share with you "The Seven Steps". It is now available here. Go on! It is very informative and like Adam said..."Your financial life depends on it!!"

Gold ended the week in what can only be described as a billion dollar bailout of the option ..writers.........

Pure Criminal Activity..

The 21st Century Gold Bull Market
August 26 2011

Gold received major haircuts on Tuesday and Wednesday as Margins were increased in China Gold Markets. The 150 dollar swing in gold just happens to arrive JUST before options expiration for gold and silver on the 25th of the month where option writers stood to lose BILLIONS because of the major move in gold. I don't have the data but was told that Adrian Douglas had done the research and they stood to lose big.

The long term upper gold channel line has been on our weekly chart since the breakout in 2010 above the Red Channel line. Once price broke above the middle green line it only took two weeks to reach the upper level. A major sell off has resulted in the midst of a major options expiration due this Friday. Coincidence ?

XgldWeekly2011.jpg

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GOLD TRENDS

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