Thread: Oil analysis

Nymex crude prices jumped higher yesterday despite risk aversion creeping back into markets following the initial boost from the ECB’s LTRO tender which effectively added E489 billion liquidity to the EUROZONE, but the move is seen more as a temporary stocking filler for the next few months. February crude prices opened at $97.53 pulling up in Asia to $98.47 before heading lower again as the euro slumped off post LTRO highs dragging crude down to lows of $96.80. The EIA then released weekly inventory data which astounded the markets with a 10.57 million barrel draw against analysts expectations of a 2.25mmbl draw. The contract leapt to $99.25 before easing back into the close at $98.67. Asian markets have seen a brief rally to $99.13 this morning before peeling back to $98.55. Today’s support is at $97.63 and $96.72 with resistance at $99.87 and $100.62. Easy Forex News

Nymex crude prices firmed again yesterday but failed to hold above the $100.00 mark despite some Middle East turmoil in Iraq which could impact on some oil transportation routes, and strong US weekly jobless claims data. The contract opened at $99.03 slipping to $98.51 in the European session before a progressive rally in NY to $100.05. Lack of momentum and thinning markets then led a drift off to $99.53 into the close. Asia markets this morning took the February contract back up again to $100.09 before settling around $99.70 into the European open. Today’s support is seen at $98.51 and $97.56 with resistance at $100.45 and $101.50. Easy Forex News

Oil prices have good resistance to the upside at $103.37/bbl, despite Tuesday’s rally by front-month West Texas Intermediate crude, which closed above $100/bbl for the first time in two weeks. WTI crude for February delivery ended the day up $1.66, or 1.7%, at $101.34/bbl on Nymex Tuesday; ICE Brent crude settled up $1.31 at $109.27/bbl. Volume was about one-fourth the normal level, with fewer than 178,000 contracts traded. The thin volume contributed to price volatility, with buy orders leading to jumps in prices. Traders and analysts say the market is being driven by news out of Iran, in which Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi was quoted by the official state news agency saying Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz if Western nations sanction Iran’s oil exports. WTI for February delivery is down 8 cents at $101.26/bbl on Globex. Easy Forex News

Nymex crude prices had a mixed day yesterday with the February contract coming under pressure in NY as the EUR/USD was sold to fresh 2011 lows and Gold headed down towards the $1500 level. The EIA reported 3.9 million barrel build in Crude inventories for the latest week in contrast to analysts expectations of a 2.5 mmbl draw, but a late rally in equities lead a bounce into the close with the contract making some small gains on the day. WTI opened the day at $99.59 trading up to $99.92 before heading lower to $98.30. The late rally then emerged with the contract closing out the session at $99.65. Today’s support is at $98.30 and $97.58 with resistance at $101.25 and $101.72 Easy Forex News

February Nymex WTI Crude Oil prices closed the year around $98.83. Electronic markets saw a steady move higher yesterday to $100.02 and Asian markets this morning have seen a further gain on the back of firming bourses and strong Asian PMI data from China India and Australia. Latest CFTC data suggests money managers have increased net length in WTI futures by around 9.4 % from a previous week’s fall of a round 13%. Some tensions over the Straits of Hormuz and Iran’s threats to try and close the waterway are also adding to the bulls cause, although the likelihood of such a stoppage is realistically slim. The contract has traded up to highs of $100.55 this morning. Resistance from here is seen up at $100.88 and $102.94 with support at $98.60 and $97.53. Easy Forex News

Nymex WTI and ICE Brent Crude Oil both rallied yesterday amid further Middle Eastern tensions in the Gulf after comments from Iranian army and naval chiefs warned of repercussions should the US carrier return into it’s territorial waters. Strong PMI data out of China, buoyed equity markets and firmer precious metals all helped the cause with the February WTI contract tracking Brent gains. WTI opened the session at $99.70 taking out resistance through $100.88 to highs of $103.18 before closing just off the highs at $102.96. Brent similarly rallied from $108.35 to $112.44 before closing at $112.13. Asian markets have seen some mild slippage this morning with WTI easing to $102.55 and the ICE Brent to $111.77. WTI support is seen at $101.42 and $100.64 with resistance at $104.00 and $105.28. Brent support is at $111.47 and $110.50 with resistance up at $112.97 and $113.76. Easy Forex News

Crude futures lost early gains Friday, turning lower as equities markets fell.

The decline reversed a price surge spurred by government data showing U.S. job growth accelerated in December. Light, sweet crude for February delivery recently traded 62 cents, or 0.6%, lower at $101.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $102.80 earlier in the session. Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange traded 42 cents lower at $112.32 a barrel. Oil prices initially surged after the Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 last month, with private companies adding 212,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also declined to 8.5% in December, the lowest level since February 2009. But a decline in U.S. stocks, which have guided oil prices in recent months, along with a stronger dollar, took the wind out of early optimism about the U.S. economy. Easy Forex News

Nymex February WTI Crude closed marginally higher on Friday in mixed trading. The contract opened at $101.35 and headed higher in the morning to $102.80 before strong US NFP data led a sharp fall back to $100.88. The price then rallied back into the close at $101.56, as geopolitical concerns over Iran, and rotests in Nigeria help to keep some buoyancy in the contract. Latest CFTC data is bullish with combined open interest in Nymex and ICE futures up some 2.8%, net length of money managers increasing by almost 2.4% and producers decreasing shorts by just over 5%. Traders are now starting to see an increase in demand with supply contracting in the coming months. Asia markets saw an early rally up to $102.11 before a fall back this morning to $100.88, settling around $101.05 ahead of the European open. Today’s support is at $100.00 and $99.37 with resistance at $102.80 and $103.75 Easy Forex News

Nymex Crude Oil prices marched higher yesterday as some risk appetite returned to equity and commodity markets and the EUR/USD saw a bout of short covering amid largely well received Dutch and Austrian auctions and comments from Fitch that France would not receive a sovereign downgrade this year. Comments from Italian democrats however calling for an abandonment of the EUR later weighed on sentiment and crude fell back off the highs to pare back a lot of the strong morning’s gains. The February WTI contract opened at $101.30 climbing in Asia and Europe to highs of $103.41 assisted by some M/E tensions, before heading back in the afternoon to close at $102.24. Asian markets this morning have seen further slippage to $101.58 before recovering to $101.75. Last night the API reported a 397 million barrel build in crude inventories, but analysts will be paying more attention to the more definitive EIA release today at 1530GMT. Support today is seen at $101.30 and $100.63 with resistance at $103.18 and $103.85. Easy Forex News

Nymex Crude oil prices dropped sharply on Thursday afternoon after strong gains in the morning to just short of $103.00 were wiped out on the news that the EU embargo on Iranian oil was to be delayed for up to 6 months. The WTI February contract plummeted to lows of $98.50 as traders scrambled out of long positions despite rising S&P futures and a buoyant EUR/USD, following strong Spanish and Italian auctions in the European session. The February contract opened at $101.00 heading up in Europe to highs of $102.98, before the delay in the embargo was announced and prices dropped to $98.50 before recovering to $99.10 in the close. Asian markets have seen a steady extension to the recovery this morning to $99.98. Resistance is now seen at $100.80 and $102.51 with support at yesterday's lows of $98.50 and $97.40. The embargo news also sent ICE Brent crude crashing from highs of $114.77 to $110.13 before closing at $111.05. Asian markets have since rallied the March contract to $112.12 this morning with resistance now seen ahead at $112.61 and $114.18. Support seen coming in at $110.13 and $109.49. Stock Market News