Thread: Trader123's trading ideas

Originally Posted by trader123

Often at the start of a new week, I will analyse what is the direction of USD and stock market. This is because this will affect all the major currencies and JPY currency pairs.

My view for this week is that USD will continue to weaken due to more fear in the US financial sector and stock market should remain week as there is no catalyst for it to rebound.

To tap on USD weakness, I had bought AUD/USD. In my view, AUD continues to remain the high yield currency with the strongest fundamental.

Bought 100,000 AUD/USD at 0.9686
Stop level at 0.9590
Target level at 0.9782

Chart: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...this-week.html

Strong resistance at 0.9742, so I decide to take profit first. Sold at 0.9706, profit is US$200.

US Treasury Henry Paulson said US government agencies will provide liquidity and capital support to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This signals to me that they will need to print more money. Hence USD will continue to go weaker and precious metals will rise.

Bought 1 lot of silver at 19.14
Stop level at 18.60
Target level at 20.00
Value of 1 point is US$1000

Chart: http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.co...us-metals.html

Oil prices tumbled Tuesday as U.S. stocks sold off amid worries about the nation's economic health. Prices dropped more than $10 a barrel from their highest point of the day. At midday, light, sweet crude fell $6.27 to $138.91 in an extremely volatile session.

I think this is a good opportunity to buy oil after the huge drop within a very short period of time. In my view the drop is not due to fundamental, it is market overreacting to Ben Bernanke's speech.

Bought 1 lot of supermini oil at 138.56
Stop level at 134.50
Target level at 144.10
Value of 1 point is US$100

Chart: http://allaboutoil.blogspot.com/2008...10-barrel.html

Originally Posted by trader123

US Treasury Henry Paulson said US government agencies will provide liquidity and capital support to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This signals to me that they will need to print more money. Hence USD will continue to go weaker and precious metals will rise.

Bought 1 lot of silver at 19.14
Stop level at 18.60
Target level at 20.00
Value of 1 point is US$1000

Chart: http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.co...us-metals.html

Today I had bought 1 lot of silver at 19.14, stop level at 18.60, target level at 20.00.

Oil price had plunged $10 pulling down precious metals as well.

Silver went below 18.60, so my stop was triggered. Loss is US$540.

My previous silver trade was stopped out. But in my opinion, getting stopped out is not the end. Since I am bullish on silver, I should buy again at lower level or at more comfortable level.

Getting stopped out does not mean that my view is wrong, it just that I had entered at the wrong entry point.

Bought 1 lot of silver at 18.96
Stop loss level at 18.40
Target level at 20.00
Value of 1 point is US$1000

Originally Posted by trader123

Oil prices tumbled Tuesday as U.S. stocks sold off amid worries about the nation's economic health. Prices dropped more than $10 a barrel from their highest point of the day. At midday, light, sweet crude fell $6.27 to $138.91 in an extremely volatile session.

I think this is a good opportunity to buy oil after the huge drop within a very short period of time. In my view the drop is not due to fundamental, it is market overreacting to Ben Bernanke's speech.

Bought 1 lot of supermini oil at 138.56
Stop level at 134.50
Target level at 144.10
Value of 1 point is US$100

Chart: http://allaboutoil.blogspot.com/2008...10-barrel.html

Oil price fell below 134.50 due to rising US oil inventory, so my stop was triggered. Loss was US$406.35.

1. EURJPY had fallen sharply since 14 July. It meets with some support at 165.60 and seems like rebounding.

Bought 50,000 EURJPY at 165.84
Stop level at 165.00
Target level at 166.60

Chart: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...over-done.html


2. Downtrend maintains for EURGBP

Shorted 50,000 EURGBP at 0.7936
Stop level at 0.7950
Target level at 0.7907

Chart: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...-at-07936.html

Originally Posted by trader123

1. EURJPY had fallen sharply since 14 July. It meets with some support at 165.60 and seems like rebounding.

Bought 50,000 EURJPY at 165.84
Stop level at 165.00
Target level at 166.60

Chart: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...over-done.html


2. Downtrend maintains for EURGBP

Shorted 50,000 EURGBP at 0.7936
Stop level at 0.7950
Target level at 0.7907

Chart: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...-at-07936.html

1. Yesterday I had bought 50,000 EURJPY at 165.84, stop level at 165.00, target level at 166.60.

This morning USDJPY started to fall, pulling EURJPY down as well, so decide to take profit.

Sold off at 166.06, profit is US$108.98.


2. Last night I shorted 50,000 EURGBP at 0.7936, stop level at 0.7950, target level at 0.7907.

Today EURGBP started to rebound slightly so I decided to take profit.

Bought back at 0.7920, profit is US$162.64.

1. After speech by Fed Chairman and Secretary Treasury this week, market seems to have gathered some confidence in USD.

Double-bottom formed for USDCHF, stochastics turning up. I guess its time to buy USDCHF.

Bought 50,000 USDCHF at 1.0156
Stop level at 1.0100
Target level at 1.0230

Chart: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...or-usdchf.html


2. EURJPY again shows upside potential as it attempts to move higher again. Stablised Asia stock market has helped to weaken JPY, helping to push EURJPY higher.

Bought 50,000 EURJPY at 166.34
Stop level at 166.34
Target level at 167

Chart: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...potential.html

My indicator has shown buy signal for oil.
On the chart, oil is trading in a range of $132 - $146.
Currently oil price is trading at $134.29, so it is near to the bottom of the range.

Any geopolitical events or supply disruption can easily spike oil price up towards $140 again.

Bought 1 lot of supermini oil at 134.29
Stop level at 129.29
Target level at 142.50
Value of $1 is US$100

Chart: http://allaboutoil.blogspot.com/2008...rmini-oil.html