Trader123's trading ideas

trader123 · #1 (**permalink**) 06-19-2008, 11:11 PM

Bought 100,000 EUR/GBP at 0.7873

Often I have requests from friends and readers asking me to do back-testing for particular products. I had done a lot of the tests upon their requests, but that does not mean that my back-testing is successful.

How do I define success in back-testing?
Purpose of my back-test is to find the best indicator to track the buy signals and sell signals. For example if my result shows that RSI is the best indicator to track the buy and sell signals, but my test result shows that the profit achieved is rather small, I'll still conclude that the test has failed.

Finding the best indicator is not sufficient for me to use that for trading, it MUST prove itself to be a profitable indicator.

Recently I had done a test on EUR/GBP, my back-test was successful as the profit achieved in the test is pretty decent. Currently my proven indicator has signal buy.

Fundamental of GBP
Fundamentally UK is facing housing problem just like US, but GBP has maintained at this level due to its relative higher interest rate. I believe GBP is overvalued.

Bought 100,000 EUR/GBP at 0.7873
Place a GTC stop at 0.7845
Target level at 0.7910

Full report here: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...-at-07873.html

trader123 · #2 (**permalink**) 06-20-2008, 05:02 AM

Today I had bought 100,000 EUR/GBP at 0.7873, placed a GTC stop at 0.7845 and target level at 0.7910.

EUR/GBP looks toppish after reaching 0.7905, so since its quite near to my target price of 0.7910, I choose to take profit at 0.7893.

Profit is in GBP, platform has auto converted my profit back into USD. Realised profit is US$395.62.

trader123 · #3 (**permalink**) 06-21-2008, 11:00 PM

My trading profit is up 78%: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...ccount-at.html

trader123 · #4 (**permalink**) 06-23-2008, 01:50 AM

Oil price is still trading in a range of $131 - $139.

FOMC meeting will start this week, and market expects interest rate to remain the same. I do think interest will remain the same as well as US economy is still weak. If Federal Reserves raises interest rate by surprise, oil price is expected to dip down.

I'll be interested to short oil at $138 and put a stop at $140.

If you interested to trade supermini oil contract, click here.

trader123 · #5 (**permalink**) 06-23-2008, 03:08 AM

There is a resistance at $385, copper price looks weak as USD starts to strengthen in advance of Fed meeting on wednesday.

Shorted 1 lot of Comex Copper July at $382.20
Place a GTC stop at $387
Target level at $375
Value of 1 point = US$250

See here for copper chart: http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.co...r-july-at.html

trader123 · #6 (**permalink**) 06-23-2008, 03:34 AM

Shorted 1 lot of gold at $903.88

Resistance is formed at $908. USD has strengthened in advanced of Fed meeting resulting in weak gold price.

My indicator has signaled to me that gold is near to overbought region.

Shorted 1 lot of gold at $902.13
Place a GTC stop at $909.00
Target level at $898.00

See here for gold chart: http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.co...-at-90388.html

trader123 · #7 (**permalink**) 06-23-2008, 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader123

Shorted 1 lot of gold at $903.88

Resistance is formed at $908. USD has strengthened in advanced of Fed meeting resulting in weak gold price.

My indicator has signaled to me that gold is near to overbought region.

Shorted 1 lot of gold at $902.13
Place a GTC stop at $909.00
Target level at $898.00

See here for gold chart: http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.co...-at-90388.html

Gold price fell below $898, so my trade has taken profit at $898. Realised profit is $413. Full report here: http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.co...88-closed.html

trader123 · #8 (**permalink**) 06-23-2008, 06:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader123

There is a resistance at $385, copper price looks weak as USD starts to strengthen in advance of Fed meeting on wednesday.

Shorted 1 lot of Comex Copper July at $382.20
Place a GTC stop at $387
Target level at $375
Value of 1 point = US$250

See here for copper chart: http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.co...r-july-at.html

Copper has fallen to $377.85 now, decided to take profit at $378. Realised profit is US$1050.

See here:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.co...uly-at_23.html

trader123 · #9 (**permalink**) 06-23-2008, 05:50 PM

Oil price is still trading in a range of $131 - $139. Currently oil is trading near to the peak of the range.

Shorted 1 lot of supermini oil at $137.10
Placed a GTC stop at $140
Target level at $134

trader123 · #10 (**permalink**) 06-23-2008, 11:23 PM

My proven indicator is still showing buy signal for AUD/USD. Looking at 10min chart, mini double-bottom and uptrend line are formed.

Bought 100,000 AUD/USD at 0.9528
Place at GTC stop at 0.9488
Target level at 0.9560