Hello
I am an new member and I am very sorry if I have posted in the wrong forum. Also I would like to apologize for my English, it isn't really good. As to the subject, I would like to know wich formula or wich "study" I should use when I encounter this problem;
Suppose I am playing a game, the game is played in this way:

You have only 5 minutes to play, and you will bet on what it is that you believe will happen. The market is right now at 1.56813, do you think when the market closes (in 5 minutes) it will cross below 1.56813 or go "over" 1.56813.
Do you understand how I mean? The game is played by gambling. If you think it will go below 1.56813 the odds are 2.50, if you think it will go over, the odds are 1.50.
You can also play for every hour, and every day.

Thank you again, and sorry for my bad English.