Thread: Technical Outlook

Written by www.ImperialFXonline.com

Further consolidation below 0.9406 top


The aussie's breach of the pivotal resistance at 0.9328 turned out to be rather short-lived, as the subsequent rally was capped at 0.9382 and the aud/usd retreated sharply after failing to test the 2009 high at 0.9406. At this moment, although the impulsive rise from 0.8578 could still turn out to be a very strong B-wave (to be followed by a C-wave decline of the A-B-C correction from 0.9406), we will focus on the support at 0.9131 and this level needs to hold for a bullish outlook to re-assert itself, which would see a resumption of the uptrend from the 2008 low of 0.6008 to re-visit 0.9406 ahead of the pseudo-psychological 0.9500 level and the fibonacci projection target at 0.9668.

On the downside, a move back below the minor support at 0.9131 would alleviate some of the upward pressure on the aussie (daily indicators are starting to turn lower from overbought levels) but only a breach of the support at 0.9001 would call for a possible end to the rise from 0.8578 (such scenario would further confirm that the bounce was indeed a B-wave) and lead to weakness to 0.8801 later. A sustained break below 0.8801 would see the A-B-C move from 0.9406 resume as a more complex downward correction and bring a re-visit of 0.8578 first.

The way the complex decline from 0.9406 unfolded suggests that the rise which began in late 2008 at 0.6008 has formed a top there (note the extended 5-wave upmove from 0.7702 which was completed at 0.9406) and a moderate correction is under way, the C-leg of this A-B-C move has the potential to reach 0.8242 (fibonacci expansion level) ahead of a daily chart support at 0.8156. Above 0.9406 would confirm the uptrend from 0.6008 low has resumed and see an eventual re-visit of the 2008 top at 0.9851, with an intermediate upside objective at 0.9670/80.

Written by www.ImperialFXonline.com

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