MORNING BRIEFING: In US, unemployment figures disappointing

What’s new :
United States: Unemployment figures disappointing
Canada: Economic Growth Slows
UK: Retail sales up
Euro Area: Greece met the criteria for a second tranche loan
France: New measures of fiscal austerity?
Switzerland: New high of 7weeks for CHF against the EUR
Japan: No intervention on the Forex at the moment, official sources
Australia: Issue uncertain for the elections this weekend

Today:


Rates in Asia and Indices:
EURUSD: 1.2886 - 1.2823.
USDCHF: 1.0452 - 1.0412.
GBPUSD: 1.5588- 1.5498.
EURJPY: 110.34 – 109.59.
USDJPY: 85.68 – 85.33.
DowJones: 10'271.21 -1.39%
NASDAQ: 2'178.95 -1.66%
S & P 500: 1'075.63 -1.69%
Nikkei: 9'197.43 -1.76%
Shanghai: 2'652.88 -1.31%
Gold: $ 1'232.20    
Crude Oil: $ 75.42

Comments:

An increase in weekly jobless claims, a leading indicator low at 0.1%, followed by the release of negative -7.7 Philadelphia Fed Index (expected +7.5) seem to confirm the marked slowdown in growth in USA.

Meanwhile, Canadian leading indicators coming out at 0.4% (expected 0.6%) and Wholesale Trade figures released at -0.3% (expected 0.3%) also suggest a slowing Canadian economy, the CAD loosing more than one figure against the USD yesterday afternoon.

In Great Britain, retail sales for July, released at 1.1% (expected 0.4) surprised many in the markets and provided support to the pound, which has taken more than one figure in less than an hour against the USD, before losing ground again.

Yesterday the European Commission has estimated that 'the generally positive assessment of conditions in Greece opens the way for the next phase of loans'. They cover a total of EUR 9 billion, of which 6.5bn come from countries in the Euro zone, and 2.5bn from the IMF.

In France and probably due to Moody's evocation of a possible lowering of France sovereign debt ratings, French President Sarkozy has summoned three ministers yesterday to discuss new austerity measures.

The new record surplus of Switzerland’s trade balance highlighted the relatively good economic performance in Switzerland. This, combined with the pursuit of security by the markets, has pushed the CHF to a new high since July 1st against the EUR this morning at 1.3187.

The Japanese Finance Minister Mr. Noda joined the chorus of official comments and said that his ministry was in contact with its G7 partners, and that he (Mr. Noda) followed movements in the currency markets with 'utmost interest '. While at the same time, official sources reported 'no intervention on the Forex was planned at the moment'.

The outcome of general elections this Saturday in Australia seems uncertain; the possibility of a hung parliament is even mentioned. However, if the AUD seems to suffer from this situation, the markets should quickly be back on the country's economic prospects.

Good weekend

Pascal Bovay

RTFX Ltd
Trading desk
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