Technical Analysis on EUR/USD from AceTrader

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Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
Last Update At : 2004/07/09 03:54


EUR/DLR..1.2394..Despite initial choppy trading below previous day`s top at 1.2390,
subsequent renewed buying abv indicated sup at 1.2330 (y`day`s low was 1.2340) pushed
euro to an intra-day high of 1.2407 b4 trading sideways in late U.S. session.

As euro has maintained a firm bias, suggesting recent upmove is likely to extend marginal
gain to 1.2418, being 62% proj. of nr term rise fm 1.2263-1.2390 measured fm 1.2340,
however, as both 15 min. n hourly oscillators wud display `prominent` bearish divergences on
such move, reckon upside wud falter below daily res at 1.2458 n yield a long-overdue
correction to 1.2340 1st, a firm break there wud confirm a temp. top is made n yield
weakness twd 1.2300, however, renewed buying interest is expected abv 1.2263 sup n bring
resumption of upmove next week for gain to dynamic res at 1.2483, being 62% of 1.2930-
1.1760.

In view of the above analysis, we are selling euro on upmove today with stop abv 1.2458,
break wud extend marginal gain to 1.2483 res but 1.2549 (equality proj. of 1.1760-1.2355
measured fm 1.1954) wud remain intact...



Elliott Wave Analysis on EUR/USD
Last Update At : 2004/07/07 19:17

As recent upmove fm 1.1954 has gathered momentum, retaining our bullishcount where
wave C of (B) is under way n as long as 1.2230 holds, further gain to 1.2483 (61.8% r of (A)
leg fm 1.2930) but 1.2587 (70.7% r) shud limit upside n yield selloff later this year.



To recap wave (IV) decline fm 1.2930, (A) leg has ended at 1.1760 as a double three with
1st A-B-C: 1.2930-1.2056, X: 1.2458, 2nd A-B-C: 1.2458-1.1760. The subsequent rebound
fm there is viewed as wave (B) n with A leg: 1.1760-1.2355 n B leg is possibly ended at
1.1954 n C leg is now under way.

Looking at the bigger picture, wave (III) fm 0.8350 has ended at 1.2930 with I: 0.9335, II:
0.8563, III: 1.1935, wave IV: 1.0762 n wave V: 1.2930. In the event euro is able to close
abv 1.2587 on a daily basis, this wud signal entire wave (IV) correction has ended at 1.1760
earlier n yield resumption of MT upmove in wave (V) for re-test of 1.2930..

Below 1.2230 wud signal a possible double three correction is unfolding fm 1.1760 with
1.1954 being the end of wave X, then weakness to 1.2143 in 2nd B leg cannot be ruled out
b4 C leg rally takes place...

--------------------- *** LARGER DEGREE WAVE COUNT *** ------------------------

22 Apr 04..Major [A][b][C] wave fm 1.4577 (Sep 92) ended earlier at 0.8228 n a series of (I)
(II), I,II is unfolding with (I): 0.8228-0.9505, (II): 0.8350, I: 0.9335, II: 0.8563, III: 1.1935,
IV: 1.0762, wave V n (III) has ended at 1.2930 n (A) leg wave (IV) correction shud be ltd to
1.1590 n yield (B) leg rebound..




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