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  1. #91
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    Financial News December 23, 2015


    Key extracts from OPECs World Oil Report
    Oil producing nations' cartel OPEC has revised its demand estimate in its latest World Oil Outlook, however has warned over declining investments. OPEC demand projections are still higher than those projected by International Energy Agency (IEA).

    Saudi Arabia, also, few days back warned on declining investments posing challenge to future energy security.
    According to OPEC, from here till 2040, every year $400 billion investments are required to keep supply in line with rising demand. According to the cartel, demand is likely to come from emerging market economies, namely China and India. Overall global demand is likely to increase by 18 million barrels/day by 2040 to 109.8 million barrels per day. This figure, is however 1.3million barrels/day lower from previous projections, probably taking into account recent climate accord in Paris. Figure is still higher from IEA projections of 103.5 million barrels/day.

    In the medium term however it feels, oil demand to rise from current 92.8 million barrels/day in 2015 to 97.4 million barrels/day by 2020.

    On the supply side, the organization expects non-OPEC production to rise to 61.5 million barrels/day by 2025 but decline to 59.7 million barrels/day by 2040. On the other hand it expects OPEC production to rise by 10 million barrels/day by 2040.

    On the price front it now expects price to reach $70/barrel by 2020 and $95/barrel by 2040.

    Oil is currently trading at $36.8/barrel.

    Market Review December 23, 2015


    The Asian session this morning was rather quiet with insignificant market movement and very few economic data. During the session, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis released a report, which shows that consumer spending rose in November by 0.3%, that is in line with the expectations. The US Dollar seems to be paring back some of last week's gains against other major currencies such as the Euro and the Swiss Franc, which are the strongest major currencies for the month. For instance, EUR/USD remained near the 1.0930 area after reaching to the 1.0983 level yesterday, while the months’ highest was seen at the 1.1059 level until the moment.

    Released during the early European session, French Consumer Spending declined -1.1% missing the estimated 0.2%.

    The economic calendar is rather heavy today despite the fact that minor or perhaps muted reactions are expected in the market as the financial markets are in holiday mood.

    The key events for the day would be the United Kingdom Current Account and Final GDP, the Canadian Core Retail Sales, GDP and Retail Sales and finally, the United States Core Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Personal Income reports.

    Additional economic releases would be the United Kingdom Index of Services, the United States Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and the Canadian Retail Sales.


    Data releases to monitor:
    EUR: Italian Retail Sales.

    GBP: Current Account, Final GDP, Index of Services, Revised Business Investment.

    USD: Core Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, New Home Sales, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Crude Oil Inventories.

    CAD: Core Retail Sales, GDP, Retail Sales.

    CHF: KOF Economic Barometer.


    Trade Idea of the Day

    EUR/JPY


    Currently the pair is trading at 132.23. Traders must monitor the 133.78 resistance level and the support level 131.01 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 131.67 support level, where a break may lead to the 131.25 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 132.72 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 133.20 area.


  2. #92
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    Financial News December 28, 2015


    US household consumption likely to drive growth in 2016
    University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment December final estimate was up to 92.6, slightly over expectations of 92.0.

    Current conditions were up to 108.1, the highest since June. The consumer expectations were revised upwards a tick to 82.7, below November print but still over October.

    Both were led by concerns related to personal finances, the current personal finances index climbed to 113 and expected personal finances went up to 124.

    "Buying conditions for durables now stand at 167 (previous: 154), the highest since 2005 and consistent with continued strength in motor vehicle sales. Sentiment now stands in line with its average pace of improvement over the course of the recovery, and we expect household consumption will continue to drive growth in 2016", says Barclays in a research note.

    Market Review December 28, 2015


    The financial markets remain quiet with insignificant market movement as another holiday week begin. Released during the Asian session this morning, Japan's factory output fell for the first time in three months in November and retail sales slumped, suggesting that a clear recovery in the world's third-largest economy will be postponed until early in 2016. While manufacturers expect to increase output in coming months, the weak data casts doubt on the Bank of Japan's view that an expected pick-up in exports and consumption will help jump-start growth and accelerate inflation toward its 2% target. Industrial output fell 1.0% t in November from the previous month, more than a median market forecast for a 0.4 percent decline, data by the trade ministry showed on Monday. Moreover, retail sales fell 1.0% in November from a year earlier, more than a median forecast for a 0.1 percent drop. The USD/JPY pair remained near the 120.55 area, after dropping to the 120.15 area in the previous week.

    The economic calendar is rather empty for the day and rather light for the whole week as the holiday spirit is dominating the markets. The key events for the week would be the United States CB Consumer Confidence and Unemployment Claims.

    View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events.

    Data releases to monitor:
    CAD: Bank Holiday (Boxing Day).

    GBP: Bank Holiday (Boxing Day).


    Trade Idea of the Day

    EUR/CAD


    Currently the pair is trading at 1.5182. Traders must monitor the 1.5318 resistance level and the support level 1.4955 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.5241 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.5275 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.5137 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.5095 area.


  3. #93
    fxnewsportal is offline Junior Member
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    Thanks Vinson

    I could not refrain from commenting. Perfectly written!
    I will right away take hold of your rss as I can not find your e-mail
    subscription hyperlink or e-newsletter service.

  4. #94
    samantha is offline Junior Member
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    The PBoC today's decision to lift the USD-CNY fixing by almost 2% has thrown the market into turmoil. Concerns about the Chinese economy have resurfaced again and are weighing on the currencies of those countries for which China is an important trade partner, in particular the AUD and the NZD.

    What is somewhat more surprising is that safe-haven demand for USD has jumped this morning. This has not always been the case during Chinese market fluctuations in the last few weeks.In fact, however, external risks for the USD from this side should not be underestimated, says Commerzbank. While the Fed obviously focuses on domestic developments, Fed Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer confirmed only yesterday that he and his colleagues are currently less worried about the US labor market than about inflation.

    To a significant extent, the low inflation rate is due to temporary factors, such as the oil price decline. However, the declining oil prices have started to drag down long-term inflation expectations again - and this development is certainly a cause for concern, as it does not create the ideal environment for a pick-up in inflation any time soon. And since a pronounced economic slowdown in China would weigh not only on global growth, but also on oil prices, it would not surprise anyone if the recent developments were thought to be negative for the USD, too, adds Commerzbank.

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