Thread: USD/JPY updated Analysis

The pre-planned break-out variant for sales has been implemented, and achievement of anticipated targets is supported by bearish activity development, shown by OsMA trend indicator at break of key support range levels. At this point considering upside indicator trend, we can assume probability of rate correction period with key border resistance levels of 96,20/40, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term sales, on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 95,60/80 and (or) further break-out variant up to 95,00/20, 94,40/60, 93,80/94,00. The alternative for buyers will be above 96,80 with targets of 97,20/40, 97,80/98,00, 98,40/60.

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USD/JPY- 6th July, 2009

The pair is falling in early trading this week, but is likely to encounter support by 95.30. If that fails, 95.00 is the support level beyond.

Once getting into this support area, a bounce is likely. A continued fall would be quite bearish.

Upside resistance from where the pair currently trades is 95.70, 95.90, 96.10 and 96.30.

USD/JPY- 13th July, 2009

The pair continues to trade inside a narrowing range, or a descending triangle. Inside the triangle support is at 92.30-92.20 and beyond that 91.80. This is the low and a break below would indicate a swing down.

Through early trading a break above 92.90 would indicate a move higher. 93.20, 93.40 and 93.60 are the targets for the break.

USD/JPY 15 July 2009

Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.89; (P) 93.32; (R1) 93.93; More.

USD/JPY rebounds further today and at this point, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 92.69 minor support holds. Further rise could still be seen. But after all, price actions from 91.79 are treated as consolidation in the larger decline from 96.96 only and hence, upside of the current rise is expected to be limited below 94.87 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 92.69 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 91.79 low will confirm that whole fall from 98.87 has resumed for 161.8% projection of 98.87 to 94.87 from 96.96 at 90.48 next.

USD/JPY -16th July 2009

94.40 was yesterday's target, and the pair hit it and has retreated. This is an important level. A move back below 93.50 would indicate the move was a bull trap and that the pair is likely to head back lower.

IF the pair does drop to 93.50 or below, 94 should hold as resistance on bounces. Further resistance is at 94.40. 94.80 should also act as a stall to rises if in fact the pair does turn higher.

Support is 93.60 and 93.20. A break blow is likely to test former swing lows in the 92.80 region.

USD/JPY, 17 July 2009
Daily Pivots: (S1) 93.31; (P) 93.88; (R1) 94.49; More.

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday outlook in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, price actions from 91.79 are treated as consolidation in the larger decline from 96.96 only. Hence, while another rise cannot be ruled out, upside is still expected to be limited below 94.87 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 93.25 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 91.79 low will confirm that whole fall from 98.87 has resumed.