Thread: Daily Technical Update USD/JPY Clues for New Bulls

Daily Technical Update
February 17, 2010

USD/JPY Clues for New Bulls



* Daily: The USD/JPY has been very choppy. You can retracements from the current intermediate downtrend have been strong, but have picked up the current short-term bullish action to be indicative of a larger scale bullish mode. (Refer to Daily Video Technical Update 2.12.2010-second pair; and Weekly Technical Update 2.12.2010).
* What are some clues that the current rally is it – that this is the rally to begin a new bullish mode? We don’t even have a lower higher bottom yet, though this would be a great confirmation.
* Other clues can be seen in both the strength of the bullish price action. Another is that it was rejected at 88.50 which is a 78.6% retracement (not shown here).
* The stochastic is also an important clue. Here I use a 25-period slow stochastic to capture the intermediate trend during longer-intermediate term ranging action (market has been in consolidation mode since Sept 2009). In the intermediate term, the market is still in consolidation, unless the stochastic dips after it goes overbought, but fails to reach below let’s say 50. That would be a bullish confirmation. For now, we have bullish signal in the short-intermediate term.
* 4H: The 4H time-frame also gives us confirmation for the short/intermediate-term bullish outlook.
* Here the stochastic period is 25, and we can see a very strong clue here. You can see that the stochastic has fluctuated widely between Jan 19 – Feb 4. This is indicative of ranging action. However, note that during the Feb 5th decline, the stochastic stayed above.
* This is the new bull’s clue indicative of a new bullish cycle in the short/intermediate-term.
* Daily: Looking back at the daily, we see some short-term targets within the consolidation mode. 92/92.50 is an important resistance area. If that is broken, the market still has to break the 94/94.50 area to signal a long-term bullish outlook outside of the current consolidation context.
* This would be a completion of a head and shoulders.




Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is acting as a counterparty to its clients’ transactions and as a result, CMS’ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors. Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

Originally Posted by fxtimes

Daily Technical Update
February 17, 2010

USD/JPY Clues for New Bulls



* Daily: The USD/JPY has been very choppy. You can retracements from the current intermediate downtrend have been strong, but have picked up the current short-term bullish action to be indicative of a larger scale bullish mode. (Refer to Daily Video Technical Update 2.12.2010-second pair; and Weekly Technical Update 2.12.2010).
* What are some clues that the current rally is it – that this is the rally to begin a new bullish mode? We don’t even have a lower higher bottom yet, though this would be a great confirmation.
* Other clues can be seen in both the strength of the bullish price action. Another is that it was rejected at 88.50 which is a 78.6% retracement (not shown here).
* The stochastic is also an important clue. Here I use a 25-period slow stochastic to capture the intermediate trend during longer-intermediate term ranging action (market has been in consolidation mode since Sept 2009). In the intermediate term, the market is still in consolidation, unless the stochastic dips after it goes overbought, but fails to reach below let’s say 50. That would be a bullish confirmation. For now, we have bullish signal in the short-intermediate term.
* 4H: The 4H time-frame also gives us confirmation for the short/intermediate-term bullish outlook.
* Here the stochastic period is 25, and we can see a very strong clue here. You can see that the stochastic has fluctuated widely between Jan 19 – Feb 4. This is indicative of ranging action. However, note that during the Feb 5th decline, the stochastic stayed above.
* This is the new bull’s clue indicative of a new bullish cycle in the short/intermediate-term.
* Daily: Looking back at the daily, we see some short-term targets within the consolidation mode. 92/92.50 is an important resistance area. If that is broken, the market still has to break the 94/94.50 area to signal a long-term bullish outlook outside of the current consolidation context.
* This would be a completion of a head and shoulders.




Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is acting as a counterparty to its clients’ transactions and as a result, CMS’ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors. Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

Thank you, I just wanted to give a greeting and tell you I enjoyed reading your material.