Thread: Japan trade data less bad – bias remains to the downside for USDJPY.

The Japanese April trade deficit was less bad than feared, but this was due to lacklustre imports, rather than stronger exports. In addition, the BoJ minutes revealed that Deputy Governor Nishimura was not alone in considering additional easing steps at the April 28 meeting. This should raise expectations of further action at subsequent meetings - the next one is June 14. USDJPY nevertheless remains rangebound, perhaps helped by a stronger bid for US Treasuries. Resistance comes in at the top of the daily ichimoku cloud at 82.43; and the 100dMA at 82.25; but even a break through the 82.50 level is likely to run into exporter offers managing newly-decided fiscal year budget rates. We continue to see the greater risk being a move back towards 80.

BNP Paribas Corporate & Investment Banking

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